2021 01 23 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 23 January 2021
Kolossos Rhodes vs Peristeri at 23 January 2021
AEK Athens vs Ionikos Nikaias at 23 January 2021
Aris vs Mesologgi BC at 23 January 2021
PAOK vs Iraklis at 23 January 2021
Larissa BC vs Panathinaikos at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.37

2.58

GS Lavrio

3.15

1.63

Promitheas HC

-5.5

4.00

GS Lavrio HC

+5.5

-4.00

Point Line

155.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

72

75

6

4

L 1

76

74

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

87

71

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

87

65

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

77

87

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

86

86

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

60

Dec 19

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

77

86

2

2

L 1

73

87

Dec 13

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

69

67

2

1

W 1

69

66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

H

Promitheas Patras

W

75

72

8

3

W 8

75

75

Jan 11

A

Larisa

W

66

58

7

3

W 7

63

59

Jan 3

H

Panathinaikos

W

92

82

6

3

W 6

101

73

Dec 27

H

AEK Athens

W

78

70

5

3

W 5

83

66

Dec 19

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

77

60

4

3

W 4

79

64

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

85

73

Dec 9

H

Aris

W

92

71

2

3

W 2

85

72

Dec 5

A

Peristeri

W

78

70

1

3

W 1

80

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 76 points and the GS Lavrio 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

16.20

16.30

DRB

23.30

21.30

AST-TO

1.21

1.28

TRB

29.20

29.20

FTM

14.10

12.50

BL

4.10

2.50

FTA

20.50

18.10

PF-Fewer

18.60

22.10

ST

6.60

8.30

TO-Fewer

13.40

12.70

Ftper

0.69

0.69

ORBper

0.25

0.37

ORB

5.90

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Kolossos Rhodes vs Peristeri at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

1.97

3.11

Peristeri

1.85

1.47

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+1.5

5.50

Peristeri HC

-1.5

-5.50

Point Line

152.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

94

74

4

7

W 1

90

75

Jan 2

A

AEK Athens

L

72

89

3

7

L 1

76

85

Dec 26

A

Aris

W

84

74

3

6

W 1

78

76

Dec 19

H

P.A.O.K.

L

84

85

2

6

L 2

78

81

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

67

72

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

86

65

Nov 22

A

Panathinaikos

L

67

90

1

4

L 2

73

80

Nov 18

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

65

66

1

3

L 1

66

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Aris

W

84

71

7

4

W 2

78

72

Jan 3

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

67

6

4

W 1

71

64

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

58

78

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

78

80

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

62

68

Dec 5

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

4

2

L 1

74

76

Nov 22

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

75

71

4

1

W 2

77

76

Nov 15

H

Messolonghi

W

84

72

3

1

W 1

82

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 75 points and the Peristeri 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kolossos Rhodes

Peristeri

FG%

0.54

0.49

ASS

17.00

15.50

DRB

24.40

25.40

AST-TO

1.21

1.16

TRB

30.80

33.40

FTM

14.30

16.30

BL

1.40

2.50

FTA

19.80

21.30

PF-Fewer

22.70

20.40

ST

6.20

5.30

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.40

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.27

0.31

ORB

6.50

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs Ionikos Nikaias at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.06

1.55

Ionikos Nikaias

9

2.82

AEK Athens HC

-16.5

-4.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+16.5

4.50

Point Line

159.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

8

3

L 2

75

85

Jan 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

75

80

8

2

L 1

82

71

Jan 2

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

89

72

8

1

W 1

89

71

Dec 27

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

78

7

1

L 1

74

76

Dec 20

H

Aris

W

84

67

7

0

W 6

78

68

Dec 12

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

0

W 5

81

77

Dec 5

H

P.A.O.K.

W

85

84

5

0

W 4

79

80

Nov 21

A

Messolonghi

W

87

66

4

0

W 3

85

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

74

93

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

63

65

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

78

82

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

86

80

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

92

78

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

58

70

Nov 22

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

91

81

1

4

W 1

96

79

Nov 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

67

77

0

4

L 3

68

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 79 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.52

0.50

ASS

16.80

14.30

DRB

21.80

22.40

AST-TO

1.35

1.06

TRB

31.10

31.50

FTM

16.50

11.60

BL

2.60

1.50

FTA

22.80

15.70

PF-Fewer

23.50

21.00

ST

5.90

7.10

TO-Fewer

12.40

13.50

Ftper

0.72

0.74

ORBper

0.43

0.41

ORB

9.30

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Aris vs Mesologgi BC at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

1.5

1.91

Mesologgi BC

2.6

2.10

Aris HC

-4.5

-1.50

Mesologgi BC HC

+4.5

1.50

Point Line

152.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

82

83

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

73

86

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

61

68

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

74

83

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

71

80

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

84

86

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

72

Dec 9

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

92

2

2

L 1

75

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

A

P.A.O.K.

L

87

96

3

8

L 8

81

92

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

82

92

Dec 27

A

Larisa

L

58

84

3

6

L 6

55

86

Dec 20

H

Panathinaikos

L

66

73

3

5

L 5

72

65

Dec 12

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

87

3

4

L 4

74

85

Dec 5

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

68

71

3

3

L 3

69

76

Nov 21

H

AEK Athens

L

66

87

3

2

L 2

70

83

Nov 15

A

Peristeri

L

72

84

3

1

L 1

74

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Mesologgi BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 77 points and the Mesologgi BC 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

Mesologgi BC

FG%

0.52

0.53

ASS

12.40

14.50

DRB

20.60

22.90

AST-TO

0.91

0.94

TRB

29.30

29.70

FTM

17.30

14.20

BL

2.10

1.60

FTA

23.10

19.20

PF-Fewer

21.30

19.40

ST

8.40

5.50

TO-Fewer

13.60

15.50

Ftper

0.75

0.74

ORBper

0.42

0.30

ORB

8.60

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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PAOK vs Iraklis at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

PAOK

1.51

1.70

Iraklis

2.92

2.43

PAOK HC

-4.5

-3.00

Iraklis HC

+4.5

3.00

Point Line

153.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

6

W 1

93

91

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

6

L 1

69

78

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

5

W 3

82

85

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84