2021 01 23 Greek Basket League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 23 January 2021
Kolossos Rhodes vs Peristeri at 23 January 2021
AEK Athens vs Ionikos Nikaias at 23 January 2021
Aris vs Mesologgi BC at 23 January 2021
PAOK vs Iraklis at 23 January 2021
Larissa BC vs Panathinaikos at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Promitheas	1.37	2.58
GS Lavrio	3.15	1.63
Promitheas HC	-5.5	4.00
GS Lavrio HC	+5.5	-4.00
Point Line	155.5	148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	72	75	6	4	L 1	76	74
Jan 16	A	AEK Athens	W	82	75	6	3	W 2	87	71
Jan 10	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	85	61	5	3	W 1	87	65
Jan 6	A	Larisa	L	81	85	4	3	L 1	77	87
Jan 3	A	Messolonghi	W	88	82	4	2	W 2	86	86
Dec 26	H	Peristeri	W	75	58	3	2	W 1	77	60
Dec 19	A	Ionikos Nikaias	L	77	86	2	2	L 1	73	87
Dec 13	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	69	67	2	1	W 1	69	66

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	H	Promitheas Patras	W	75	72	8	3	W 8	75	75
Jan 11	A	Larisa	W	66	58	7	3	W 7	63	59
Jan 3	H	Panathinaikos	W	92	82	6	3	W 6	101	73
Dec 27	H	AEK Athens	W	78	70	5	3	W 5	83	66
Dec 19	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	77	60	4	3	W 4	79	64
Dec 12	H	Messolonghi	W	87	70	3	3	W 3	85	73
Dec 9	H	Aris	W	92	71	2	3	W 2	85	72
Dec 5	A	Peristeri	W	78	70	1	3	W 1	80	72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 76 points and the GS Lavrio 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Promitheas	GS Lavrio
FG%	0.53	0.53
ASS	16.20	16.30
DRB	23.30	21.30
AST-TO	1.21	1.28
TRB	29.20	29.20
FTM	14.10	12.50
BL	4.10	2.50
FTA	20.50	18.10
PF-Fewer	18.60	22.10
ST	6.60	8.30
TO-Fewer	13.40	12.70
Ftper	0.69	0.69
ORBper	0.25	0.37
ORB	5.90	7.90

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Kolossos Rhodes vs Peristeri at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Kolossos Rhodes	1.97	3.11
Peristeri	1.85	1.47
Kolossos Rhodes HC	+1.5	5.50
Peristeri HC	-1.5	-5.50
Point Line	152.5	148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	94	74	4	7	W 1	90	75
Jan 2	A	AEK Athens	L	72	89	3	7	L 1	76	85
Dec 26	A	Aris	W	84	74	3	6	W 1	78	76
Dec 19	H	P.A.O.K.	L	84	85	2	6	L 2	78	81
Dec 13	A	Promitheas Patras	L	67	69	2	5	L 1	67	72
Dec 5	H	Larisa	W	90	64	2	4	W 1	86	65
Nov 22	A	Panathinaikos	L	67	90	1	4	L 2	73	80
Nov 18	A	Iraklis B.C.	L	65	66	1	3	L 1	66	71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	A	Aris	W	84	71	7	4	W 2	78	72
Jan 3	H	P.A.O.K.	W	76	67	6	4	W 1	71	64
Dec 26	A	Promitheas Patras	L	58	75	5	4	L 1	58	78
Dec 19	H	Larisa	W	82	78	5	3	W 1	78	80
Dec 13	A	Panathinaikos	L	57	76	4	3	L 2	62	68
Dec 5	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	4	2	L 1	74	76
Nov 22	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	75	71	4	1	W 2	77	76
Nov 15	H	Messolonghi	W	84	72	3	1	W 1	82	75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 75 points and the Peristeri 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Var	Kolossos Rhodes	Peristeri
FG%	0.54	0.49
ASS	17.00	15.50
DRB	24.40	25.40
AST-TO	1.21	1.16
TRB	30.80	33.40
FTM	14.30	16.30
BL	1.40	2.50
FTA	19.80	21.30
PF-Fewer	22.70	20.40
ST	6.20	5.30
TO-Fewer	14.00	13.40
Ftper	0.72	0.76
ORBper	0.27	0.31
ORB	6.50	8.00

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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AEK Athens vs Ionikos Nikaias at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
AEK Athens	1.06	1.55
Ionikos Nikaias	9	2.82
AEK Athens HC	-16.5	-4.50
Ionikos Nikaias HC	+16.5	4.50
Point Line	159.5	150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Promitheas Patras	L	75	82	8	3	L 2	75	85
Jan 10	A	Panathinaikos	L	75	80	8	2	L 1	82	71
Jan 2	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	89	72	8	1	W 1	89	71
Dec 27	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	7	1	L 1	74	76
Dec 20	H	Aris	W	84	67	7	0	W 6	78	68
Dec 12	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	79	72	6	0	W 5	81	77
Dec 5	H	P.A.O.K.	W	85	84	5	0	W 4	79	80
Nov 21	A	Messolonghi	W	87	66	4	0	W 3	85	69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	A	Kolossos Rodou	L	74	94	4	7	L 1	74	93
Jan 3	H	Aris	W	68	64	4	6	W 1	63	65
Dec 27	A	P.A.O.K.	L	84	86	3	6	L 1	78	82
Dec 19	H	Promitheas Patras	W	86	77	3	5	W 2	86	80
Dec 12	A	Larisa	W	97	76	2	5	W 1	92	78
Dec 6	H	Panathinaikos	L	53	79	1	5	L 1	58	70
Nov 22	A	Lavrio B.C.	W	91	81	1	4	W 1	96	79
Nov 14	H	Iraklis B.C.	L	67	77	0	4	L 3	68	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 79 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Var	AEK Athens	Ionikos Nikaias
FG%	0.52	0.50
ASS	16.80	14.30
DRB	21.80	22.40
AST-TO	1.35	1.06
TRB	31.10	31.50
FTM	16.50	11.60
BL	2.60	1.50
FTA	22.80	15.70
PF-Fewer	23.50	21.00
ST	5.90	7.10
TO-Fewer	12.40	13.50
Ftper	0.72	0.74
ORBper	0.43	0.41
ORB	9.30	9.20

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Aris vs Mesologgi BC at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Aris	1.5	1.91
Mesologgi BC	2.6	2.10
Aris HC	-4.5	-1.50
Mesologgi BC HC	+4.5	1.50
Point Line	152.5	152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Panathinaikos	L	75	93	3	8	L 5	82	83
Jan 9	H	Peristeri	L	71	84	3	7	L 4	73	86
Jan 3	A	Ionikos Nikaias	L	64	68	3	6	L 3	61	68
Dec 26	H	Kolossos Rodou	L	74	84	3	5	L 2	74	83
Dec 20	A	AEK Athens	L	67	84	3	4	L 1	71	80
Dec 16	A	Larisa	W	88	84	3	3	W 1	84	86
Dec 13	A	P.A.O.K.	L	64	75	2	3	L 2	60	72
Dec 9	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	71	92	2	2	L 1	75	90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	A	P.A.O.K.	L	87	96	3	8	L 8	81	92
Jan 3	H	Promitheas Patras	L	82	88	3	7	L 7	82	92
Dec 27	A	Larisa	L	58	84	3	6	L 6	55	86
Dec 20	H	Panathinaikos	L	66	73	3	5	L 5	72	65
Dec 12	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	87	3	4	L 4	74	85
Dec 5	H	Iraklis B.C.	L	68	71	3	3	L 3	69	76
Nov 21	H	AEK Athens	L	66	87	3	2	L 2	70	83
Nov 15	A	Peristeri	L	72	84	3	1	L 1	74	86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by Mesologgi BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 77 points and the Mesologgi BC 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Var	Aris	Mesologgi BC
FG%	0.52	0.53
ASS	12.40	14.50
DRB	20.60	22.90
AST-TO	0.91	0.94
TRB	29.30	29.70
FTM	17.30	14.20
BL	2.10	1.60
FTA	23.10	19.20
PF-Fewer	21.30	19.40
ST	8.40	5.50
TO-Fewer	13.60	15.50
Ftper	0.75	0.74
ORBper	0.42	0.30
ORB	8.60	6.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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PAOK vs Iraklis at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
PAOK	1.51	1.70
Iraklis	2.92	2.43
PAOK HC	-4.5	-3.00
Iraklis HC	+4.5	3.00
Point Line	153.5	152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 9	H	Messolonghi	W	96	87	5	6	W 1	93	91
Jan 3	A	Peristeri	L	67	76	4	6	L 1	69	78
Dec 27	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	86	84	4	5	W 3	82	85
Dec 19	A	Kolossos Rodou	W	85	84