BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Galil Gilboa at 23 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Galil Gilboa at 23 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Galil Gilboa for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
1.2 |
1.86 |
|
Galil Gilboa |
4.35 |
2.16 |
|
Maccabi Tel Aviv HC |
-9.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Galil Gilboa HC |
+9.5 |
2.00 |
|
Point Line |
165.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 31 |
H |
Hapoel Jerusalem |
W |
101 |
80 |
6 |
1 |
W 2 |
103 |
77 |
|
Dec 7 |
A |
Ironi Nes Ziona |
W |
65 |
58 |
5 |
1 |
W 1 |
67 |
60 |
|
Dec 5 |
A |
Hapoel Holon |
L |
76 |
79 |
4 |
1 |
L 1 |
79 |
78 |
|
Nov 29 |
A |
Ironi Nahariya |
W |
98 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
W 3 |
86 |
86 |
|
Nov 23 |
H |
Hapoel Haifa |
W |
81 |
75 |
3 |
0 |
W 2 |
78 |
70 |
|
Nov 15 |
A |
Bnei Herzliya |
W |
92 |
86 |
2 |
0 |
W 1 |
86 |
84 |
|
Nov 7 |
H |
Hapoel Eilat |
W |
86 |
74 |
1 |
0 |
W 0 |
87 |
69 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galil Gilboa are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Dec 30 |
A |
Maccabi Rishon LeZion |
W |
71 |
69 |
7 |
2 |
W 1 |
71 |
68 |
|
Dec 24 |
A |
Ironi Nes Ziona |
L |
74 |
88 |
6 |
2 |
L 1 |
77 |
91 |
|
Dec 7 |
A |
Bnei Herzliya |
W |
95 |
89 |
6 |
1 |
W 1 |
89 |
87 |
|
Nov 22 |
H |
Hapoel Eilat |
L |
77 |
100 |
5 |
1 |
L 1 |
78 |
93 |
|
Nov 18 |
H |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
W |
86 |
73 |
5 |
0 |
W 4 |
88 |
70 |
|
Nov 14 |
A |
Hapoel Holon |
W |
88 |
81 |
4 |
0 |
W 3 |
91 |
80 |
|
Nov 11 |
A |
Maccabi Haifa |
W |
82 |
77 |
3 |
0 |
W 2 |
72 |
81 |
|
Nov 8 |
H |
Hapoel Tel Aviv |
W |
88 |
68 |
2 |
0 |
W 1 |
91 |
73 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galil Gilboa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galil Gilboa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Galil Gilboa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 83 points and the Galil Gilboa 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
Galil Gilboa |
|
FG% |
0.55 |
0.53 |
|
ASS |
21.10 |
18.30 |
|
DRB |
27.30 |
26.60 |
|
AST-TO |
1.54 |
1.25 |
|
TRB |
35.90 |
36.30 |
|
FTM |
15.30 |
15.80 |
|
BL |
3.40 |
4.10 |
|
FTA |
19.60 |
19.80 |
|
PF-Fewer |
20.90 |
23.40 |
|
ST |
7.60 |
5.30 |
|
TO-Fewer |
13.70 |
14.60 |
|
Ftper |
0.78 |
0.80 |
|
ORBper |
0.32 |
0.37 |
|
ORB |
8.60 |
9.80 |
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