2021 01 23 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reggiana vs Aquila Basket Trento at 23 January 2021
Virtus Bologna vs Brescia at 23 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Reggiana vs Aquila Basket Trento at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Aquila Basket Trento for Serie A, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Reggiana

1.6

2.34

Aquila Basket Trento

2.35

1.75

Reggiana HC

-3.5

3.00

Aquila Basket Trento HC

+3.5

-3.00

Point Line

154.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reggiana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

73

102

6

9

L 5

81

91

Jan 10

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

75

95

6

8

L 4

80

95

Jan 6

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

69

78

6

7

L 3

72

81

Jan 3

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

85

6

6

L 2

76

74

Dec 26

H

Red October Cantu

L

68

78

6

5

L 1

68

80

Dec 16

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

79

69

6

4

W 2

78

70

Dec 13

A

Openjobmetis Varese

W

89

76

5

4

W 1

85

77

Dec 6

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

56

85

4

4

L 1

53

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aquila Basket Trento are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Universo Treviso

L

76

82

6

9

L 4

69

78

Jan 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

85

92

6

8

L 3

89

87

Jan 3

A

Enel Brindisi

L

73

74

6

7

L 2

75

69

Dec 20

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

82

92

6

6

L 1

86

96

Dec 13

H

Red October Cantu

W

74

73

6

5

W 2

74

75

Dec 6

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

79

71

5

5

W 1

84

71

Nov 22

H

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

77

4

5

L 1

71

78

Nov 15

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

80

73

4

4

W 2

79

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reggiana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aquila Basket Trento.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aquila Basket Trento and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reggiana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Reggiana (in the first graph) and by Aquila Basket Trento in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Reggiana will expected to score 77 points and the Aquila Basket Trento 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Reggiana

Aquila Basket Trento

FG%

0.49

0.51

ASS

15.10

15.70

DRB

24.20

22.00

AST-TO

1.08

1.35

TRB

33.10

31.30

FTM

15.30

11.10

BL

2.20

1.70

FTA

19.30

15.90

PF-Fewer

20.40

20.20

ST

6.30

7.80

TO-Fewer

14.00

11.60

Ftper

0.79

0.70

ORBper

0.37

0.42

ORB

8.90

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Virtus Bologna vs Brescia at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Brescia for Serie A, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.11

1.15

Brescia

6.75

7.65

Virtus Bologna HC

-12.5

-10.00

Brescia HC

+12.5

10.00

Point Line

167.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

90

85

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

94

87

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

100

78

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

75

65

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

89

69

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

81

62

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

76

72

Nov 22

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

91

71

5

3

W 1

90

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brescia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 10

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

88

98

5

10

L 3

88

95

Jan 3

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

85

89

5

9

L 2

80

85

Dec 27

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

87

100

5

8

L 1

84

87

Dec 20

A

Red October Cantu

W

92

89

5

7

W 3

92

92

Dec 13

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

71

69

4

7

W 2

76

69

Dec 5

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

99

85

3

7

W 1

98

87

Nov 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

74

2

7

L 5

73

69

Nov 15

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

80

2

6

L 4

74

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brescia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brescia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Brescia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 84 points and the Brescia 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Brescia

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

22.70

18.10

DRB

26.10

24.90

AST-TO

1.62

1.46

TRB

34.80

32.60

FTM

13.30

11.70

BL

2.80

1.30

FTA

18.30

13.90

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.50

ST

8.40

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.00

12.40

Ftper

0.73

0.84

ORBper

0.33

0.31

ORB

8.70

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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