2021 01 23 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Murcia vs San Pablo Burgos at 23 January 2021
Real Betis vs Unicaja Malaga at 23 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Gran Canaria at 23 January 2021
Bilbao vs Zaragoza at 23 January 2021
Tenerife vs Manresa at 24 January 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Barcelona at 24 January 2021
Valencia vs Baskonia at 24 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Andorra at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Murcia vs San Pablo Burgos at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Murcia

2.7

1.60

San Pablo Burgos

1.47

2.67

Murcia HC

+4.5

-4.00

San Pablo Burgos HC

-4.5

4.00

Point Line

167.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

93

76

8

8

W 1

90

77

Dec 23

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

93

104

7

8

L 2

90

101

Dec 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

78

89

7

7

L 1

80

84

Dec 9

H

Acunsa GBC

W

90

73

7

6

W 1

86

81

Dec 6

A

Unicaja

L

81

102

6

6

L 1

80

97

Nov 21

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

84

81

6

5

W 2

82

81

Nov 15

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

73

63

5

5

W 1

69

66

Nov 12

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

84

89

4

5

L 2

86

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Valencia Basket

L

78

83

13

6

L 1

80

78

Jan 9

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

85

76

13

5

W 5

82

81

Jan 3

H

Unicaja

W

95

83

12

5

W 4

93

79

Dec 29

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

86

11

5

W 3

90

90

Dec 27

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

95

78

10

5

W 2

92

76

Dec 19

H

Manresa

W

91

80

9

5

W 1

90

80

Dec 12

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

79

84

8

5

L 2

81

77

Dec 6

H

Real Madrid

L

60

74

8

4

L 1

65

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Murcia (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Murcia will expected to score 81 points and the San Pablo Burgos 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Murcia

San Pablo Burgos

FG%

0.53

0.51

ASS

14.70

14.70

DRB

21.10

22.00

AST-TO

1.04

0.96

TRB

30.90

31.90

FTM

18.10

15.50

BL

2.30

1.90

FTA

23.10

19.90

PF-Fewer

20.40

19.30

ST

5.80

7.30

TO-Fewer

14.20

15.30

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.46

0.45

ORB

9.80

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Unicaja Malaga at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

2.75

2.18

Unicaja Malaga

1.45

1.85

Real Betis HC

+4.5

2.00

Unicaja Malaga HC

-4.5

-2.00

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

Baskonia

L

76

103

4

15

L 3

81

101

Jan 9

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

76

85

4

14

L 2

78

79

Jan 2

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

95

96

4

13

L 1

86

98

Dec 29

A

Unicaja

W

114

111

4

12

W 2

112

106

Dec 27

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

86

79

3

12

W 1

84

79

Dec 22

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

54

78

2

12

L 6

53

83

Dec 12

H

Baskonia

L

73

77

2

11

L 5

78

75

Dec 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

55

72

2

10

L 4

58

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Manresa

L

83

90

9

10

L 4

82

90

Jan 10

H

Baskonia

L

79

91

9

9

L 3

84

89

Jan 3

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

95

9

8

L 2

86

88

Dec 29

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

111

114

9

7

L 1

108

122

Dec 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

91

75

9

6

W 1

86

78

Dec 22

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

84

90

8

6

L 2

82

90

Dec 13

A

Real Madrid

L

84

91

8

5

L 1

91

86

Dec 6

H

UCAM Murcia

W

102

81

8

4

W 5

102

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 80 points and the Unicaja Malaga 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

Unicaja Malaga

FG%

0.49

0.56

ASS

13.80

17.80

DRB

19.60

22.30

AST-TO

0.99

1.19

TRB

30.30

32.70

FTM

14.20

13.40

BL

2.70

2.10

FTA

19.90

17.50

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.00

ST

8.70

6.60

TO-Fewer

13.90

14.90

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.55

0.47

ORB

10.70

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fuenlabrada vs Gran Canaria at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fuenlabrada

1.88

1.63

Gran Canaria

1.93

2.58

Fuenlabrada HC

-1.5

-3.50

Gran Canaria HC

+1.5

3.50

Point Line

164.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

85

105

5

13

L 3

77

107

Jan 3

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

67

83

5

12

L 2

73

80

Dec 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

79

86

5

11

L 1

77

92

Dec 22

A

Unicaja

W

90

84

5

10

W 1

88

80

Dec 20

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

70

74

4

10

L 4

66

77

Dec 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

71

87

4

9

L 3

70

92

Dec 5

H

Valencia Basket

L

61

68

4

8

L 2

62

64

Nov 21

A

UCAM Murcia

L

81

84

4

7

L 1

81

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

108

7

12

L 1

90

99

Jan 10

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

96

85

7

11

W 1

93

82

Jan 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

85

101

6

11

L 1

87

95

Dec 27

A

Manresa

W

71

64

6

10

W 4

70

64

Dec 22

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

78

54

5

10

W 3

76

58

Dec 19

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

65

4

10

W 2

75

72

Dec 13

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

87

71

3

10

W 1

85

71

Dec 6

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

91

2

10

L 3

69

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 81 points and the Gran Canaria 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fuenlabrada

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.51

0.52

ASS

14.00

14.90

DRB

21.10

20.80

AST-TO

0.99

1.18

TRB

31.10

29.10

FTM

15.70

11.70

BL

3.20

2.60

FTA

21.20

16.00

PF-Fewer

21.30

18.90

ST

8.60

7.50

TO-Fewer

14.20

12.60

Ftper

0.74

0.73

ORBper

0.47

0.40

ORB

9.90

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bilbao vs Zaragoza at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

2.3

5.53

Zaragoza

1.63

1.22

Bilbao HC

+2.5

9.00

Zaragoza HC

-2.5

-9.00

Point Line

170.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

70

72

4

15

L 2

73

76

Jan 9

H

Valencia Basket

L

73

106

4

14

L 1

75

100

Jan 2

H

Acunsa GBC

W

81

80

4

13

W 1

77

89

Dec 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

86

96

3

13

L 2

89

89

Dec 27

H

Unicaja

L

75

91

3

12

L 1

74

87

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

72

70

Dec 13

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

76

105

2

11

L 3

69

107

Dec 6

H

Movistar Estudiantes

L

77

78

2

10

L 2

75

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

105

85

6

12

W 2

103

85

Jan 2

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

95

5

12

W 1

93

102

Dec 27

H

Baskonia

L

89

92

4

12

L 2

95

90

Dec 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

91

102

4

11

L 1

88

104

Dec 13

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

105

76

4

10

W 2

99

79

Dec 11

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

98

83

3

10

W 1

102

87

Dec 5

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

81

88

2

10

L 6

79

85

Nov 22

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

85

97

2

9

L 5

93

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 83 points and the Zaragoza 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Zaragoza

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

15.20

16.20

DRB

21.30

22.90

AST-TO

1.03

1.27

TRB

29.60

30.10

FTM

14.10

14.50

BL

2.10

2.70

FTA

17.70

20.30

PF-Fewer

21.50

20.70

ST

5.90

6.80

TO-Fewer

14.70

12.80

Ftper

0.79

0.72

ORBper

0.39

0.31

ORB

8.30

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tenerife vs Manresa at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

1.24

2.40

Manresa

4.15

1.72

Tenerife HC

-8.5

3.00

Manresa HC

+8.5

-3.00

Point Line

169.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

108

87

15

4

W 1

106

92

Jan 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

87

89

14

4

L 2

83

98

Jan 2

H

Real Madrid

L

85

92

14

3

L 1

92

87

Dec 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

64

14<