2021 01 23 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Murcia vs San Pablo Burgos at 23 January 2021
Real Betis vs Unicaja Malaga at 23 January 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Gran Canaria at 23 January 2021
Bilbao vs Zaragoza at 23 January 2021
Tenerife vs Manresa at 24 January 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Barcelona at 24 January 2021
Valencia vs Baskonia at 24 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Andorra at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Murcia vs San Pablo Burgos at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Murcia	2.7	1.60
San Pablo Burgos	1.47	2.67
Murcia HC	+4.5	-4.00
San Pablo Burgos HC	-4.5	4.00
Point Line	167.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Dec 27	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	93	76	8	8	W 1	90	77
Dec 23	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	93	104	7	8	L 2	90	101
Dec 20	A	Valencia Basket	L	78	89	7	7	L 1	80	84
Dec 9	H	Acunsa GBC	W	90	73	7	6	W 1	86	81
Dec 6	A	Unicaja	L	81	102	6	6	L 1	80	97
Nov 21	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	84	81	6	5	W 2	82	81
Nov 15	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	73	63	5	5	W 1	69	66
Nov 12	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	84	89	4	5	L 2	86	83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Valencia Basket	L	78	83	13	6	L 1	80	78
Jan 9	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	85	76	13	5	W 5	82	81
Jan 3	H	Unicaja	W	95	83	12	5	W 4	93	79
Dec 29	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	86	11	5	W 3	90	90
Dec 27	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	95	78	10	5	W 2	92	76
Dec 19	H	Manresa	W	91	80	9	5	W 1	90	80
Dec 12	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	79	84	8	5	L 2	81	77
Dec 6	H	Real Madrid	L	60	74	8	4	L 1	65	70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Murcia (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Murcia will expected to score 81 points and the San Pablo Burgos 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Murcia	San Pablo Burgos
FG%	0.53	0.51
ASS	14.70	14.70
DRB	21.10	22.00
AST-TO	1.04	0.96
TRB	30.90	31.90
FTM	18.10	15.50
BL	2.30	1.90
FTA	23.10	19.90
PF-Fewer	20.40	19.30
ST	5.80	7.30
TO-Fewer	14.20	15.30
Ftper	0.78	0.78
ORBper	0.46	0.45
ORB	9.80	9.90

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Real Betis vs Unicaja Malaga at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Unicaja Malaga for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Real Betis	2.75	2.18
Unicaja Malaga	1.45	1.85
Real Betis HC	+4.5	2.00
Unicaja Malaga HC	-4.5	-2.00
Point Line	166.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	Baskonia	L	76	103	4	15	L 3	81	101
Jan 9	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	76	85	4	14	L 2	78	79
Jan 2	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	95	96	4	13	L 1	86	98
Dec 29	A	Unicaja	W	114	111	4	12	W 2	112	106
Dec 27	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	86	79	3	12	W 1	84	79
Dec 22	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	54	78	2	12	L 6	53	83
Dec 12	H	Baskonia	L	73	77	2	11	L 5	78	75
Dec 6	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	55	72	2	10	L 4	58	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	Manresa	L	83	90	9	10	L 4	82	90
Jan 10	H	Baskonia	L	79	91	9	9	L 3	84	89
Jan 3	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	83	95	9	8	L 2	86	88
Dec 29	H	Coosur Real Betis	L	111	114	9	7	L 1	108	122
Dec 27	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	91	75	9	6	W 1	86	78
Dec 22	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	L	84	90	8	6	L 2	82	90
Dec 13	A	Real Madrid	L	84	91	8	5	L 1	91	86
Dec 6	H	UCAM Murcia	W	102	81	8	4	W 5	102	81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Unicaja Malaga in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 80 points and the Unicaja Malaga 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Real Betis	Unicaja Malaga
FG%	0.49	0.56
ASS	13.80	17.80
DRB	19.60	22.30
AST-TO	0.99	1.19
TRB	30.30	32.70
FTM	14.20	13.40
BL	2.70	2.10
FTA	19.90	17.50
PF-Fewer	20.50	19.00
ST	8.70	6.60
TO-Fewer	13.90	14.90
Ftper	0.71	0.76
ORBper	0.55	0.47
ORB	10.70	10.50

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Fuenlabrada vs Gran Canaria at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Fuenlabrada	1.88	1.63
Gran Canaria	1.93	2.58
Fuenlabrada HC	-1.5	-3.50
Gran Canaria HC	+1.5	3.50
Point Line	164.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	85	105	5	13	L 3	77	107
Jan 3	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	67	83	5	12	L 2	73	80
Dec 27	A	Coosur Real Betis	L	79	86	5	11	L 1	77	92
Dec 22	A	Unicaja	W	90	84	5	10	W 1	88	80
Dec 20	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	70	74	4	10	L 4	66	77
Dec 13	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	71	87	4	9	L 3	70	92
Dec 5	H	Valencia Basket	L	61	68	4	8	L 2	62	64
Nov 21	A	UCAM Murcia	L	81	84	4	7	L 1	81	84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	87	108	7	12	L 1	90	99
Jan 10	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	96	85	7	11	W 1	93	82
Jan 2	A	Valencia Basket	L	85	101	6	11	L 1	87	95
Dec 27	A	Manresa	W	71	64	6	10	W 4	70	64
Dec 22	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	78	54	5	10	W 3	76	58
Dec 19	A	Acunsa GBC	W	79	65	4	10	W 2	75	72
Dec 13	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	87	71	3	10	W 1	85	71
Dec 6	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	63	91	2	10	L 3	69	87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fuenlabrada (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fuenlabrada will expected to score 81 points and the Gran Canaria 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Var	Fuenlabrada	Gran Canaria
FG%	0.51	0.52
ASS	14.00	14.90
DRB	21.10	20.80
AST-TO	0.99	1.18
TRB	31.10	29.10
FTM	15.70	11.70
BL	3.20	2.60
FTA	21.20	16.00
PF-Fewer	21.30	18.90
ST	8.60	7.50
TO-Fewer	14.20	12.60
Ftper	0.74	0.73
ORBper	0.47	0.40
ORB	9.90	8.30

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Bilbao vs Zaragoza at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bilbao	2.3	5.53
Zaragoza	1.63	1.22
Bilbao HC	+2.5	9.00
Zaragoza HC	-2.5	-9.00
Point Line	170.5	165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	70	72	4	15	L 2	73	76
Jan 9	H	Valencia Basket	L	73	106	4	14	L 1	75	100
Jan 2	H	Acunsa GBC	W	81	80	4	13	W 1	77	89
Dec 29	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	86	96	3	13	L 2	89	89
Dec 27	H	Unicaja	L	75	91	3	12	L 1	74	87
Dec 20	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	74	70	3	11	W 1	72	70
Dec 13	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	76	105	2	11	L 3	69	107
Dec 6	H	Movistar Estudiantes	L	77	78	2	10	L 2	75	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	105	85	6	12	W 2	103	85
Jan 2	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	95	5	12	W 1	93	102
Dec 27	H	Baskonia	L	89	92	4	12	L 2	95	90
Dec 20	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	91	102	4	11	L 1	88	104
Dec 13	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	105	76	4	10	W 2	99	79
Dec 11	A	MoraBanc Andorra	W	98	83	3	10	W 1	102	87
Dec 5	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	81	88	2	10	L 6	79	85
Nov 22	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	85	97	2	9	L 5	93	93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 83 points and the Zaragoza 87 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Var	Bilbao	Zaragoza
FG%	0.52	0.55
ASS	15.20	16.20
DRB	21.30	22.90
AST-TO	1.03	1.27
TRB	29.60	30.10
FTM	14.10	14.50
BL	2.10	2.70
FTA	17.70	20.30
PF-Fewer	21.50	20.70
ST	5.90	6.80
TO-Fewer	14.70	12.80
Ftper	0.79	0.72
ORBper	0.39	0.31
ORB	8.30	7.20

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Tenerife vs Manresa at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Tenerife	1.24	2.40
Manresa	4.15	1.72
Tenerife HC	-8.5	3.00
Manresa HC	+8.5	-3.00
Point Line	169.5	165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	108	87	15	4	W 1	106	92
Jan 10	A	Acunsa GBC	L	87	89	14	4	L 2	83	98
Jan 2	H	Real Madrid	L	85	92	14	3	L 1	92	87
Dec 29	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	90	64	14