2021 01 23 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Turk Telekom vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 23 January 2021
Besiktas vs Galatasaray at 23 January 2021
Darussafaka vs Buyukcekmece at 23 January 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Ormanspor at 23 January 2021
Petkim Spor vs Karsiyaka at 24 January 2021
Tofas vs Afyon Belediye at 24 January 2021
Fethiye Belediye vs Fenerbahce at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Turk Telekom vs Bahcesehir Koleji at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Bahcesehir Koleji for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Turk Telekom	1.35	1.30
Bahcesehir Koleji	3.15	4.38
Turk Telekom HC	-5.5	-7.50
Bahcesehir Koleji HC	+5.5	7.50
Point Line	162.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Anadolu Efes	L	84	86	9	8	L 3	94	81
Jan 10	A	Darussafaka	L	72	84	9	7	L 2	74	84
Jan 2	A	Tofas	L	64	78	9	6	L 1	64	73
Dec 27	H	Socar Spor	W	89	71	9	5	W 1	89	71
Dec 19	A	Gaziantep	L	66	70	8	5	L 1	72	77
Dec 13	H	Fethiye	W	87	75	8	4	W 1	80	80
Dec 5	A	Besiktas	L	60	94	7	4	L 1	59	92
Dec 2	H	Ormanspor	W	83	64	7	3	W 1	76	68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	H	Darussafaka	L	76	85	6	11	L 2	78	84
Jan 9	A	Tofas	L	80	87	6	10	L 1	80	82
Jan 3	A	Socar Spor	W	77	72	6	9	W 1	77	72
Dec 26	H	Gaziantep	L	76	83	5	9	L 1	83	91
Dec 20	A	Fethiye	W	105	76	5	8	W 1	96	82
Dec 12	H	Besiktas	L	76	86	4	8	L 5	75	84
Dec 6	A	Ormanspor	L	68	80	4	7	L 4	62	85
Dec 4	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	79	82	4	6	L 3	87	81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Turk Telekom (in the first graph) and by Bahcesehir Koleji in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Turk Telekom will expected to score 82 points and the Bahcesehir Koleji 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Turk Telekom	Bahcesehir Koleji
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	18.30	17.20
DRB	25.10	23.20
AST-TO	1.51	1.34
TRB	34.20	31.70
FTM	14.90	14.90
BL	2.10	2.10
FTA	20.10	19.90
PF-Fewer	19.60	20.80
ST	4.50	6.40
TO-Fewer	12.10	12.80
Ftper	0.74	0.75
ORBper	0.36	0.37
ORB	9.10	8.50

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Besiktas vs Galatasaray at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Besiktas and Galatasaray for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Besiktas	1.61	1.63
Galatasaray	2.25	2.58
Besiktas HC	-2.5	-3.50
Galatasaray HC	+2.5	3.50
Point Line	164.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	Fenerbahce	W	92	83	8	9	W 1	99	77
Jan 9	H	Bursaspor	L	69	84	7	9	L 2	65	86
Jan 2	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	72	84	7	8	L 1	79	83
Dec 27	A	Afyon	W	96	73	7	7	W 6	92	73
Dec 20	H	Buyukcekmece	W	84	77	6	7	W 5	79	78
Dec 12	A	Bahcesehir	W	86	76	5	7	W 4	86	77
Dec 5	H	Turk Telekom	W	94	60	4	7	W 3	94	59
Dec 2	A	Darussafaka	W	86	82	3	7	W 2	88	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Ormanspor	W	89	87	6	11	W 1	82	93
Jan 10	A	Anadolu Efes	L	80	90	5	11	L 2	90	84
Jan 2	H	Fenerbahce	L	73	87	5	10	L 1	78	81
Dec 27	A	Bursaspor	W	92	73	5	9	W 1	86	74
Dec 19	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	74	86	4	9	L 3	81	84
Dec 12	A	Afyon	L	80	97	4	8	L 2	76	96
Dec 5	H	Buyukcekmece	L	87	91	4	7	L 1	82	92
Dec 2	A	Bahcesehir	W	95	78	4	6	W 2	95	79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Besiktas (in the first graph) and by Galatasaray in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Besiktas will expected to score 85 points and the Galatasaray 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Var	Besiktas	Galatasaray
FG%	0.52	0.56
ASS	18.60	19.70
DRB	22.60	21.80
AST-TO	1.41	1.63
TRB	34.10	28.50
FTM	15.80	13.90
BL	2.80	2.60
FTA	20.40	18.20
PF-Fewer	21.90	18.80
ST	6.30	6.20
TO-Fewer	13.20	12.10
Ftper	0.78	0.77
ORBper	0.51	0.31
ORB	11.50	6.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Darussafaka vs Buyukcekmece at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Darussafaka and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Darussafaka	1.28	1.19
Buyukcekmece	3.6	6.23
Darussafaka HC	-7.5	-9.50
Buyukcekmece HC	+7.5	9.50
Point Line	165.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 17	A	Bahcesehir	W	85	76	8	8	W 2	85	77
Jan 10	H	Turk Telekom	W	84	72	7	8	W 1	84	71
Jan 2	H	Anadolu Efes	L	70	81	6	8	L 2	78	76
Dec 27	H	Tofas	L	72	85	6	7	L 1	72	80
Dec 13	H	Gaziantep	W	82	75	6	6	W 2	90	82
Dec 5	A	Fethiye	W	78	54	5	6	W 1	71	58
Dec 2	H	Besiktas	L	82	86	4	6	L 1	81	84
Nov 21	A	Ormanspor	W	80	64	4	5	W 2	74	68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	H	Tofas	L	75	88	7	10	L 3	75	83
Jan 10	A	Socar Spor	L	77	98	7	9	L 2	77	98
Jan 7	A	Bursaspor	L	81	89	7	8	L 1	76	91
Jan 2	A	Gaziantep	W	66	65	7	7	W 2	72	71
Dec 26	H	Fethiye	W	66	59	6	7	W 1	60	63
Dec 20	A	Besiktas	L	77	84	5	7	L 2	76	82
Dec 16	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	77	90	5	6	L 1	84	88
Dec 13	H	Ormanspor	W	89	82	5	5	W 3	82	87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Darussafaka (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Darussafaka will expected to score 83 points and the Buyukcekmece 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Darussafaka	Buyukcekmece
FG%	0.51	0.49
ASS	18.30	17.40
DRB	20.80	22.40
AST-TO	1.56	1.46
TRB	32.60	32.50
FTM	15.80	14.00
BL	2.90	2.20
FTA	20.20	17.90
PF-Fewer	23.10	21.00
ST	7.90	6.10
TO-Fewer	11.70	11.90
Ftper	0.78	0.78
ORBper	0.57	0.45
ORB	11.80	10.10

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Anadolu Efes vs Ormanspor at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Ormanspor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Anadolu Efes	1.04	1.16
Ormanspor	9.75	7.15
Anadolu Efes HC	-20.5	-10.00
Ormanspor HC	+20.5	10.00
Point Line	163.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 19	H	Bursaspor	W	91	58	17	0	W 16	85	59
Jan 17	A	Turk Telekom	W	86	84	16	0	W 15	86	83
Jan 10	H	Galatasaray	W	90	80	15	0	W 14	84	79
Jan 5	A	Gaziantep	W	68	60	14	0	W 13	74	66
Jan 2	A	Darussafaka	W	81	70	13	0	W 12	83	70
Dec 26	H	Fenerbahce	W	85	72	12	0	W 11	91	67
Dec 19	A	Tofas	W	92	78	11	0	W 10	91	73
Dec 6	A	Socar Spor	W	75	71	10	0	W 9	75	71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ormanspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	Galatasaray	L	87	89	5	12	L 2	81	88
Jan 9	H	Fenerbahce	L	63	72	5	11	L 1	68	67
Jan 3	H	Bursaspor	W	84	80	5	10	W 1	79	82
Dec 27	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	57	86	4	10	L 3	62	84
Dec 20	H	Afyon	L	85	101	4	9	L 2	81	100
Dec 13	A	Buyukcekmece	L	82	89	4	8	L 1	77	90
Dec 6	H	Bahcesehir	W	80	68	4	7	W 1	80	68
Dec 2	A	Turk Telekom	L	64	83	3	7	L 4	64	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ormanspor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ormanspor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Ormanspor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 86 points and the Ormanspor 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Var	Anadolu Efes	Ormanspor
FG%	0.56	0.52
ASS	21.50	18.40
DRB	24.20	21.40
AST-TO	2.47	1.51
TRB	33.60	28.80
FTM	11.60	14.90
BL	3.50	2.80
FTA	15.60	20.20
PF-Fewer	16.40	16.50
ST	7.20	4.60
TO-Fewer	8.70	12.20
Ftper	0.75	0.74
ORBper	0.39	0.35
ORB	9.50	7.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Petkim Spor vs Karsiyaka at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Petkim Spor and Karsiyaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Petkim Spor	5.85	2.28
Karsiyaka	1.12	1.78
Petkim Spor HC	+11.5	2.50
Karsiyaka HC	-11.5	-2.50
Point Line	157.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 16	A	Afyon	L	76	94	6	9	L 1	72	93
Jan 10	H	Buyukcekmece	W	98	77	6	8	W 1	92	78
Jan 3	H	Bahcesehir	L	72	77	5	8	L 3	72	78
Dec 27