2021 01 23 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zielona Gora vs Avtodor at 23 January 2021
Nizhny Novgorod vs Unics at 23 January 2021
Minsk vs Kalev at 24 January 2021
Enisey vs Astana at 24 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zielona Gora vs Avtodor at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zielona Gora and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zielona Gora

1.28

1.91

Avtodor

3.6

2.10

Zielona Gora HC

-7.5

-1.50

Avtodor HC

+7.5

1.50

Point Line

174.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

80

75

7

7

W 1

78

82

Jan 6

A

UNICS

L

64

65

6

7

L 1

68

65

Dec 23

A

Avtodor

W

91

90

6

6

W 3

87

90

Dec 20

A

Parma

W

85

79

5

6

W 2

86

81

Dec 14

H

Astana

W

110

86

4

6

W 1

100

90

Dec 8

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

105

3

6

L 1

82

90

Dec 6

A

Enisey

W

94

73

3

5

W 2

88

82

Nov 14

H

UNICS

W

92

86

2

5

W 1

98

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 18

H

CSKA Moscow

L

82

98

6

6

L 1

92

84

Jan 14

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

61

6

5

W 1

81

67

Jan 10

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

97

5

5

L 3

82

91

Jan 3

A

UNICS

L

65

94

5

4

L 2

69

94

Dec 23

H

Zielona Gora

L

90

91

5

3

L 1

86

87

Dec 13

H

Enisey

W

85

79

5

2

W 5

79

88

Nov 15

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

89

85

4

2

W 4

88

78

Nov 7

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

86

69

3

2

W 3

84

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zielona Gora (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zielona Gora will expected to score 86 points and the Avtodor 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zielona Gora

Avtodor

FG%

0.57

0.51

ASS

18.90

16.30

DRB

20.80

24.00

AST-TO

1.34

1.26

TRB

29.60

33.80

FTM

15.20

14.90

BL

1.90

2.60

FTA

20.40

20.00

PF-Fewer

22.40

20.30

ST

6.90

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.10

12.90

Ftper

0.74

0.75

ORBper

0.43

0.41

ORB

8.90

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Nizhny Novgorod vs Unics at 23 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nizhny Novgorod and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 23 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Nizhny Novgorod

3

2.06

Unics

1.38

1.95

Nizhny Novgorod HC

+5.5

1.50

Unics HC

-5.5

-1.50

Point Line

163.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

73

94

6

4

L 3

72

86

Jan 9

A

Tsmoki Minsk

L

76

77

6

3

L 2

74

84

Jan 3

H

CSKA Moscow

L

63

83

6

2

L 1

71

72

Dec 28

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

95

85

6

1

W 4

88

93

Dec 20

H

Enisey

W

83

79

5

1

W 3

78

88

Dec 5

A

Astana

W

79

69

4

1

W 2

72

72

Nov 14

H

Parma

W

88

73

3

1

W 1

89

75

Oct 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

64

73

2

1

L 1

63

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

91

81

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

77

71

Jan 6

H

Zielona Gora

W

65

64

7

4

W 2

62

61

Jan 3

H

Avtodor

W

94

65

6

4

W 1

90

65

Dec 26

H

CSKA Moscow

L

76

83

5

4

L 1

86

72

Dec 20

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

83

77

5

3

W 2

81

84

Dec 12

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

83

66

4

3

W 1

77

72

Dec 6

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

64

81

3

3

L 1

74

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Nizhny Novgorod (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Nizhny Novgorod will expected to score 77 points and the Unics 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Nizhny Novgorod

Unics

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

18.70

14.80

DRB

21.90

20.40

AST-TO

1.52

1.25

TRB

29.40

29.10

FTM

14.30

14.40

BL

1.80

1.80

FTA

19.50

18.80

PF-Fewer

24.00

22.30

ST

7.70

7.50

TO-Fewer

12.30

11.80

Ftper

0.73

0.76

ORBper

0.34

0.43

ORB

7.50

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Minsk vs Kalev at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Minsk and Kalev for VTB United League, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Minsk

1.36

2.12

Kalev

3.1

1.90

Minsk HC

-5.5

1.50

Kalev HC

+5.5

-1.50

Point Line

160.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

72

77

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

78

76

Dec 23

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

77

1

8

L 8

75

70

Dec 20

A

UNICS

L

77

83

1

7

L 7

82

83

Dec 12

H

Parma

L

65

78

1

6

L 6

66

80

Dec 9

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

82

88

1

5

L 5

76

96

Dec 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

60

87

1

4

L 4

68

75

Nov 7

H

Avtodor

L

69

86

1

3

L 3

66

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kalev are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 18

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

51

87

1

7

L 4

59

82

Jan 14

A

Avtodor

L

61

87

1

6

L 3

58

87

Dec 28

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

85

95

1

5

L 2

86

95

Dec 12

A

UNICS

L

66

83

1

4

L 1

70

83

Dec 9

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

88

82

1

3

W 1

86

90

Nov 5

H

Astana

L

85

92

0

3

L 2

77

97

Oct 5

A

BC Khimki

L

74

92

0

2

L 1

72

86

Sep 26

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

83

91

0

1

L 0

95

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kalev.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kalev and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Minsk (in the first graph) and by Kalev in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Minsk will expected to score 80 points and the Kalev 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Minsk

Kalev

FG%

0.50

0.51

ASS

16.50

15.80

DRB

20.20

21.50

AST-TO

1.14

1.25

TRB

29.30

29.50

FTM

12.30

11.00

BL

1.70

1.40

FTA

17.10

15.80

PF-Fewer

21.00

19.10

ST

6.10

6.40

TO-Fewer

14.50

12.60

Ftper

0.72

0.70

ORBper

0.45

0.37

ORB

9.10

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Enisey vs Astana at 24 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Enisey and Astana for VTB United League, which will take place on 24 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Enisey

2.12

3.90

Astana

1.7

1.34

Enisey HC

+1.5

7.00

Astana HC

-1.5

-7.00

Point Line

163.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 17

H

Parma

L

52

86

1

10

L 6

53

89

Jan 3

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

67

85

1

9

L 5

77

80

Dec 20

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

79

83

1

8

L 4

80

83

Dec 13

A

Avtodor

L

79

85

1

7

L 3

76

85

Dec 6

H

Zielona Gora

L

73

94

1

6

L 2

70

90

Nov 22

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

79

106

1

5

L 1

78

97

Nov 8

A

Parma

W

84

67

1

4

W 1

85

69

Nov 1

A

CSKA Moscow

L

60

109

0

4

L 3

68

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

86

82

4

7

W 1

85

75

Dec 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

3

7

L 1

80

72

Dec 17

A

Parma

W

84

83

3

6

W 1

85

86

Dec 14

A

Zielona Gora

L

86

110

2

6

L 2

82

105

Dec 5

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

69

79

2

5

L 1

70

79

Nov 5

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

92

85

2

4

W 1

85

93

Nov 1

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

52

85

1

4

L 2

60

80

Oct 22

A

Avtodor

L

85

107

1

3

L 1

81

107

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Enisey (in the first graph) and by Astana in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Enisey will expected to score 80 points and the Astana 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Enisey

Astana

FG%

0.49

0.52

ASS

14.30

19.10

DRB

19.70

21.40

AST-TO

0.92

1.46

TRB

28.10

28.40

FTM

17.60

12.90

BL

0.50

2.10

FTA

24.90

17.40

PF-Fewer

24.30

21.70

ST

5.00

5.60

TO-Fewer

15.60

13.10

Ftper

0.71

0.74

ORBper

0.43

0.33

ORB

8.40

7.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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