2021 01 26 7DAYS EuroCup



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021
Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.15

2.56

Buducnost

5.4

1.64

Virtus Bologna HC

-10.5

3.50

Buducnost HC

+10.5

-3.50

Point Line

163.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

A

JL Bourg

W

99

87

12

0

W 11

99

87

Jan 13

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

90

76

11

0

W 10

97

74

Dec 22

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

92

81

10

0

W 9

97

88

Dec 16

H

Antwerp Giants

W

92

73

9

0

W 8

85

79

Dec 9

A

Monaco

W

74

68

8

0

W 7

83

68

Nov 20

H

Lietkabelis

W

82

73

7

0

W 6

80

80

Nov 11

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

89

83

6

0

W 5

88

74

Oct 27

A

Antwerp Giants

W

95

76

5

0

W 4

88

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 19

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

77

72

Jan 12

H

JL Bourg

W

108

80

6

5

W 1

108

80

Dec 16

H

Mornar

L

78

84

5

5

L 2

77

84

Dec 11

H

Metropolitans 92

L

71

73

5

4

L 1

71

73

Dec 8

A

ratiopharm Ulm

W

77

73

5

3

W 2

80

74

Nov 20

A

Germani Brescia

W

75

66

4

3

W 1

72

69

Nov 18

H

Unicaja

L

66

90

3

3

L 2

64

84

Oct 28

A

Mornar

L

82

85

3

2

L 1

81

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 84 points and the Buducnost 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Buducnost

FG%

0.60

0.53

ASS

23.70

14.20

DRB

23.80

23.90

AST-TO

1.54

1.16

TRB

31.20

31.40

FTM

14.80

17.70

BL

3.60

2.60

FTA

19.80

22.10

PF-Fewer

22.40

18.80

ST

9.00

6.30

TO-Fewer

15.40

12.20

Ftper

0.75

0.80

ORBper

0.31

0.31

ORB

7.40

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Monaco for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.57

1.65

Monaco

2.4

2.55

Joventut Badalona HC

-3.5

-3.50

Monaco HC

+3.5

3.50

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

H

Nanterre 92

W

95

90

10

2

W 5

90

88

Jan 13

A

Unicaja

W

95

86

9

2

W 4

93

80

Dec 30

H

JL Bourg

W

90

75

8

2

W 3

90

75

Dec 15

H

UNICS

W

84

77

7

2

W 2

87

76

Dec 8

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

89

75

6

2

W 1

81

80

Nov 19

A

Partizan NIS

L

75

78

5

2

L 2

80

80

Nov 17

H

Bahcesehir

L

77

87

5

1

L 1

75

86

Oct 28

A

UNICS

W

93

91

5

0

W 4

97

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 19

H

Unicaja

W

90

71

8

4

W 4

88

66

Jan 13

A

Nanterre 92

W

93

65

7

4

W 3

88

64

Dec 29

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

66

64

6

4

W 2

70

69

Dec 18

A

Lietkabelis

W

88

64

5

4

W 1

86

70

Dec 16

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

76

4

4

L 2

71

67

Dec 9

H

Virtus Bologna

L

68

74

4

3

L 1

73

67

Nov 17

A

Antwerp Giants

W

75

67

4

2

W 1

70

73

Oct 28

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

72

88

3

2

L 2

71

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 79 points and the Monaco 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Monaco

FG%

0.57

0.52

ASS

20.70

15.10

DRB

22.50

21.70

AST-TO

1.64

1.34

TRB

32.10

33.20

FTM

16.60

13.90

BL

1.90

2.30

FTA

21.20

20.00

PF-Fewer

19.50

20.80

ST

5.30

7.60

TO-Fewer

12.60

11.30

Ftper

0.78

0.70

ORBper

0.43

0.53

ORB

9.60

11.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mornar Bar and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Mornar Bar

2.4

2.22

Unics

1.57

1.82

Mornar Bar HC

+2.5

2.00

Unics HC

-2.5

-2.00

Point Line

158.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mornar Bar are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

H

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

74

6

6

L 1

75

80

Jan 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

102

100

6

5

W 3

102

100

Dec 16

A

Buducnost VOLI

W

84

78

5

5

W 2

86

78

Dec 9

H

Metropolitans 92

W

89

78

4

5

W 1

89

78

Nov 18

A

Germani Brescia

L

75

77

3

5

L 3

72

81

Nov 11

A

Unicaja

L

72

98

3

4

L 2

70

91

Nov 3

H

ratiopharm Ulm

L

66

82

3

3

L 1

68

83

Oct 28

H

Buducnost VOLI

W

85

82

3

2

W 1

87

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

73

62

8

4

W 2

73

62

Jan 13

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

73

66

7

4

W 1

77

71

Dec 15

A

Joventut

L

77

84

6

4

L 1

78

76

Dec 9

H

JL Bourg

W

76

71

6

3

W 2

76

71

Nov 19

A

JL Bourg

W

86

74

5

3

W 1

86

74

Nov 17

A

Partizan NIS

L

86

89

4

3

L 1

92

91

Nov 10

A

Bahcesehir

W

70

67

4

2

W 2

68

66

Nov 4

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

90

87

3

2

W 1

82

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mornar Bar and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mornar Bar.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mornar Bar (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mornar Bar will expected to score 80 points and the Unics 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Mornar Bar

Unics

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

15.80

17.60

DRB

23.40

21.80

AST-TO

1.14

1.61

TRB

29.00

31.70

FTM

15.10

11.90

BL

3.40

1.50

FTA

20.30

14.80

PF-Fewer

19.30

21.40

ST

5.50

7.20

TO-Fewer

13.80

10.90

Ftper

0.74

0.80

ORBper

0.24

0.45

ORB

5.60

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Partizan for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.19

1.24

Partizan

4.75

5.10

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-10.5

-8.50

Partizan HC

+10.5

8.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 20

A

Dolomiti Energia Trento

L

84

96

8

4

L 2

91

102

Jan 12

H

Metropolitans 92

L

79

83

8

3

L 1

79

83

Dec 16

H

Monaco

W

76

72

8

2

W 3

85

72

Dec 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

106

100

7

2

W 2

112

108

Nov 18

H

Lietkabelis

W

94

90

6

2

W 1

92

99

Nov 11

H

Virtus Bologna

L

83

89

5

2

L 1

89

81

Nov 4

A

Antwerp Giants

W

114

94

5

1

W 4

106

102

Oct 28

A

Monaco

W

88

72

4

1

W 3

98

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 19

A

Metropolitans 92

L

62

79

7

5

L 1

62

79

Jan 13

H

Dolomiti Energia Trento

W

71

43

7

4

W 2

77

46

Dec 29

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

79

59

6

4

W 1

72

63

Dec 15

A

JL Bourg

L

71

73

5

4

L 1

71

73

Dec 9

H

Bahcesehir

W

88

75

5

3

W 3

85

74

Nov 19

H

Joventut

W

78

75

4

3

W 2

79

68

Nov 17

H

UNICS

W

89

86

3

3

W 1

92

84

Oct 28

H

JL Bourg

L

76

89

2

3

L 1

76

89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Partizan in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 83 points and the Partizan 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Partizan

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

18.70

14.50

DRB

24.80

20.50

AST-TO

1.46

1.09

TRB

36.40

31.00

FTM

16.00

12.00

BL

3.20

2.30

FTA

23.20

17.30

PF-Fewer

19.70

20.50

ST

6.20

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.80

13.30

Ftper

0.69

0.70

ORBper

0.47

0.51

ORB

11.60

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.15

1.85

Nanterre

5.4

2.18

Unicaja Malaga HC

-11.5

-2.00

Nanterre HC

+11.5

2.00

Point Line

160.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 19

A

Monaco

L

71

90

7

5

L 3

79

90

Jan 13

H

Joventut

L

86

95

7

4

L 2

87

86

Dec 16

H

ratiopharm Ulm

L

90

94

7

3

L 1

93

95

Dec 9

A

Germani Brescia

W