BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021
Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Virtus Bologna |
1.15 |
2.56 |
Buducnost |
5.4 |
1.64 |
Virtus Bologna HC |
-10.5 |
3.50 |
Buducnost HC |
+10.5 |
-3.50 |
Point Line |
163.5 |
158.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 20 |
A |
JL Bourg |
W |
99 |
87 |
12 |
0 |
W 11 |
99 |
87 |
Jan 13 |
H |
Cedevita Olimpija |
W |
90 |
76 |
11 |
0 |
W 10 |
97 |
74 |
Dec 22 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
92 |
81 |
10 |
0 |
W 9 |
97 |
88 |
Dec 16 |
H |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
92 |
73 |
9 |
0 |
W 8 |
85 |
79 |
Dec 9 |
A |
Monaco |
W |
74 |
68 |
8 |
0 |
W 7 |
83 |
68 |
Nov 20 |
H |
Lietkabelis |
W |
82 |
73 |
7 |
0 |
W 6 |
80 |
80 |
Nov 11 |
A |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
W |
89 |
83 |
6 |
0 |
W 5 |
88 |
74 |
Oct 27 |
A |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
95 |
76 |
5 |
0 |
W 4 |
88 |
82 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 19 |
A |
Cedevita Olimpija |
L |
71 |
74 |
6 |
6 |
L 1 |
77 |
72 |
Jan 12 |
H |
JL Bourg |
W |
108 |
80 |
6 |
5 |
W 1 |
108 |
80 |
Dec 16 |
H |
Mornar |
L |
78 |
84 |
5 |
5 |
L 2 |
77 |
84 |
Dec 11 |
H |
Metropolitans 92 |
L |
71 |
73 |
5 |
4 |
L 1 |
71 |
73 |
Dec 8 |
A |
ratiopharm Ulm |
W |
77 |
73 |
5 |
3 |
W 2 |
80 |
74 |
Nov 20 |
A |
Germani Brescia |
W |
75 |
66 |
4 |
3 |
W 1 |
72 |
69 |
Nov 18 |
H |
Unicaja |
L |
66 |
90 |
3 |
3 |
L 2 |
64 |
84 |
Oct 28 |
A |
Mornar |
L |
82 |
85 |
3 |
2 |
L 1 |
81 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 84 points and the Buducnost 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Virtus Bologna |
Buducnost |
FG% |
0.60 |
0.53 |
ASS |
23.70 |
14.20 |
DRB |
23.80 |
23.90 |
AST-TO |
1.54 |
1.16 |
TRB |
31.20 |
31.40 |
FTM |
14.80 |
17.70 |
BL |
3.60 |
2.60 |
FTA |
19.80 |
22.10 |
PF-Fewer |
22.40 |
18.80 |
ST |
9.00 |
6.30 |
TO-Fewer |
15.40 |
12.20 |
Ftper |
0.75 |
0.80 |
ORBper |
0.31 |
0.31 |
ORB |
7.40 |
7.50 |
Go to Top
Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Monaco for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Joventut Badalona |
1.57 |
1.65 |
Monaco |
2.4 |
2.55 |
Joventut Badalona HC |
-3.5 |
-3.50 |
Monaco HC |
+3.5 |
3.50 |
Point Line |
162.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 20 |
H |
Nanterre 92 |
W |
95 |
90 |
10 |
2 |
W 5 |
90 |
88 |
Jan 13 |
A |
Unicaja |
W |
95 |
86 |
9 |
2 |
W 4 |
93 |
80 |
Dec 30 |
H |
JL Bourg |
W |
90 |
75 |
8 |
2 |
W 3 |
90 |
75 |
Dec 15 |
H |
UNICS |
W |
84 |
77 |
7 |
2 |
W 2 |
87 |
76 |
Dec 8 |
A |
Umana Reyer Venezia |
W |
89 |
75 |
6 |
2 |
W 1 |
81 |
80 |
Nov 19 |
A |
Partizan NIS |
L |
75 |
78 |
5 |
2 |
L 2 |
80 |
80 |
Nov 17 |
H |
Bahcesehir |
L |
77 |
87 |
5 |
1 |
L 1 |
75 |
86 |
Oct 28 |
A |
UNICS |
W |
93 |
91 |
5 |
0 |
W 4 |
97 |
89 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 19 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
90 |
71 |
8 |
4 |
W 4 |
88 |
66 |
Jan 13 |
A |
Nanterre 92 |
W |
93 |
65 |
7 |
4 |
W 3 |
88 |
64 |
Dec 29 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
66 |
64 |
6 |
4 |
W 2 |
70 |
69 |
Dec 18 |
A |
Lietkabelis |
W |
88 |
64 |
5 |
4 |
W 1 |
86 |
70 |
Dec 16 |
A |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
72 |
76 |
4 |
4 |
L 2 |
71 |
67 |
Dec 9 |
H |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
68 |
74 |
4 |
3 |
L 1 |
73 |
67 |
Nov 17 |
A |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
75 |
67 |
4 |
2 |
W 1 |
70 |
73 |
Oct 28 |
H |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
L |
72 |
88 |
3 |
2 |
L 2 |
71 |
78 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 79 points and the Monaco 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Joventut Badalona |
Monaco |
FG% |
0.57 |
0.52 |
ASS |
20.70 |
15.10 |
DRB |
22.50 |
21.70 |
AST-TO |
1.64 |
1.34 |
TRB |
32.10 |
33.20 |
FTM |
16.60 |
13.90 |
BL |
1.90 |
2.30 |
FTA |
21.20 |
20.00 |
PF-Fewer |
19.50 |
20.80 |
ST |
5.30 |
7.60 |
TO-Fewer |
12.60 |
11.30 |
Ftper |
0.78 |
0.70 |
ORBper |
0.43 |
0.53 |
ORB |
9.60 |
11.50 |
Go to Top
Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mornar Bar and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Mornar Bar |
2.4 |
2.22 |
Unics |
1.57 |
1.82 |
Mornar Bar HC |
+2.5 |
2.00 |
Unics HC |
-2.5 |
-2.00 |
Point Line |
158.5 |
161.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mornar Bar are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 20 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
L |
71 |
74 |
6 |
6 |
L 1 |
75 |
80 |
Jan 13 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
102 |
100 |
6 |
5 |
W 3 |
102 |
100 |
Dec 16 |
A |
Buducnost VOLI |
W |
84 |
78 |
5 |
5 |
W 2 |
86 |
78 |
Dec 9 |
H |
Metropolitans 92 |
W |
89 |
78 |
4 |
5 |
W 1 |
89 |
78 |
Nov 18 |
A |
Germani Brescia |
L |
75 |
77 |
3 |
5 |
L 3 |
72 |
81 |
Nov 11 |
A |
Unicaja |
L |
72 |
98 |
3 |
4 |
L 2 |
70 |
91 |
Nov 3 |
H |
ratiopharm Ulm |
L |
66 |
82 |
3 |
3 |
L 1 |
68 |
83 |
Oct 28 |
H |
Buducnost VOLI |
W |
85 |
82 |
3 |
2 |
W 1 |
87 |
82 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 20 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
73 |
62 |
8 |
4 |
W 2 |
73 |
62 |
Jan 13 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
73 |
66 |
7 |
4 |
W 1 |
77 |
71 |
Dec 15 |
A |
Joventut |
L |
77 |
84 |
6 |
4 |
L 1 |
78 |
76 |
Dec 9 |
H |
JL Bourg |
W |
76 |
71 |
6 |
3 |
W 2 |
76 |
71 |
Nov 19 |
A |
JL Bourg |
W |
86 |
74 |
5 |
3 |
W 1 |
86 |
74 |
Nov 17 |
A |
Partizan NIS |
L |
86 |
89 |
4 |
3 |
L 1 |
92 |
91 |
Nov 10 |
A |
Bahcesehir |
W |
70 |
67 |
4 |
2 |
W 2 |
68 |
66 |
Nov 4 |
H |
Umana Reyer Venezia |
W |
90 |
87 |
3 |
2 |
W 1 |
82 |
92 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mornar Bar and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mornar Bar.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mornar Bar (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mornar Bar will expected to score 80 points and the Unics 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Mornar Bar |
Unics |
FG% |
0.54 |
0.54 |
ASS |
15.80 |
17.60 |
DRB |
23.40 |
21.80 |
AST-TO |
1.14 |
1.61 |
TRB |
29.00 |
31.70 |
FTM |
15.10 |
11.90 |
BL |
3.40 |
1.50 |
FTA |
20.30 |
14.80 |
PF-Fewer |
19.30 |
21.40 |
ST |
5.50 |
7.20 |
TO-Fewer |
13.80 |
10.90 |
Ftper |
0.74 |
0.80 |
ORBper |
0.24 |
0.45 |
ORB |
5.60 |
9.90 |
Go to Top
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Partizan for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
1.19 |
1.24 |
Partizan |
4.75 |
5.10 |
Lokomotiv Kuban HC |
-10.5 |
-8.50 |
Partizan HC |
+10.5 |
8.50 |
Point Line |
163.5 |
162.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 20 |
A |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
L |
84 |
96 |
8 |
4 |
L 2 |
91 |
102 |
Jan 12 |
H |
Metropolitans 92 |
L |
79 |
83 |
8 |
3 |
L 1 |
79 |
83 |
Dec 16 |
H |
Monaco |
W |
76 |
72 |
8 |
2 |
W 3 |
85 |
72 |
Dec 9 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
106 |
100 |
7 |
2 |
W 2 |
112 |
108 |
Nov 18 |
H |
Lietkabelis |
W |
94 |
90 |
6 |
2 |
W 1 |
92 |
99 |
Nov 11 |
H |
Virtus Bologna |
L |
83 |
89 |
5 |
2 |
L 1 |
89 |
81 |
Nov 4 |
A |
Antwerp Giants |
W |
114 |
94 |
5 |
1 |
W 4 |
106 |
102 |
Oct 28 |
A |
Monaco |
W |
88 |
72 |
4 |
1 |
W 3 |
98 |
72 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 19 |
A |
Metropolitans 92 |
L |
62 |
79 |
7 |
5 |
L 1 |
62 |
79 |
Jan 13 |
H |
Dolomiti Energia Trento |
W |
71 |
43 |
7 |
4 |
W 2 |
77 |
46 |
Dec 29 |
A |
Umana Reyer Venezia |
W |
79 |
59 |
6 |
4 |
W 1 |
72 |
63 |
Dec 15 |
A |
JL Bourg |
L |
71 |
73 |
5 |
4 |
L 1 |
71 |
73 |
Dec 9 |
H |
Bahcesehir |
W |
88 |
75 |
5 |
3 |
W 3 |
85 |
74 |
Nov 19 |
H |
Joventut |
W |
78 |
75 |
4 |
3 |
W 2 |
79 |
68 |
Nov 17 |
H |
UNICS |
W |
89 |
86 |
3 |
3 |
W 1 |
92 |
84 |
Oct 28 |
H |
JL Bourg |
L |
76 |
89 |
2 |
3 |
L 1 |
76 |
89 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Partizan in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 83 points and the Partizan 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Lokomotiv Kuban |
Partizan |
FG% |
0.54 |
0.54 |
ASS |
18.70 |
14.50 |
DRB |
24.80 |
20.50 |
AST-TO |
1.46 |
1.09 |
TRB |
36.40 |
31.00 |
FTM |
16.00 |
12.00 |
BL |
3.20 |
2.30 |
FTA |
23.20 |
17.30 |
PF-Fewer |
19.70 |
20.50 |
ST |
6.20 |
6.90 |
TO-Fewer |
12.80 |
13.30 |
Ftper |
0.69 |
0.70 |
ORBper |
0.47 |
0.51 |
ORB |
11.60 |
10.50 |
Go to Top
Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Unicaja Malaga |
1.15 |
1.85 |
Nanterre |
5.4 |
2.18 |
Unicaja Malaga HC |
-11.5 |
-2.00 |
Nanterre HC |
+11.5 |
2.00 |
Point Line |
160.5 |
166.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 19 |
A |
Monaco |
L |
71 |
90 |
7 |
5 |
L 3 |
79 |
90 |
Jan 13 |
H |
Joventut |
L |
86 |
95 |
7 |
4 |
L 2 |
87 |
86 |
Dec 16 |
H |
ratiopharm Ulm |
L |
90 |
94 |
7 |
3 |
L 1 |
93 |
95 |
Dec 9 |
A |
Germani Brescia |
W |
|