2021 01 26 7DAYS EuroCup

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021
Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Virtus Bologna vs Buducnost at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Buducnost for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Virtus Bologna	1.15	2.56
Buducnost	5.4	1.64
Virtus Bologna HC	-10.5	3.50
Buducnost HC	+10.5	-3.50
Point Line	163.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	A	JL Bourg	W	99	87	12	0	W 11	99	87
Jan 13	H	Cedevita Olimpija	W	90	76	11	0	W 10	97	74
Dec 22	H	MoraBanc Andorra	W	92	81	10	0	W 9	97	88
Dec 16	H	Antwerp Giants	W	92	73	9	0	W 8	85	79
Dec 9	A	Monaco	W	74	68	8	0	W 7	83	68
Nov 20	H	Lietkabelis	W	82	73	7	0	W 6	80	80
Nov 11	A	Lokomotiv Kuban	W	89	83	6	0	W 5	88	74
Oct 27	A	Antwerp Giants	W	95	76	5	0	W 4	88	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 19	A	Cedevita Olimpija	L	71	74	6	6	L 1	77	72
Jan 12	H	JL Bourg	W	108	80	6	5	W 1	108	80
Dec 16	H	Mornar	L	78	84	5	5	L 2	77	84
Dec 11	H	Metropolitans 92	L	71	73	5	4	L 1	71	73
Dec 8	A	ratiopharm Ulm	W	77	73	5	3	W 2	80	74
Nov 20	A	Germani Brescia	W	75	66	4	3	W 1	72	69
Nov 18	H	Unicaja	L	66	90	3	3	L 2	64	84
Oct 28	A	Mornar	L	82	85	3	2	L 1	81	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 84 points and the Buducnost 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Virtus Bologna	Buducnost
FG%	0.60	0.53
ASS	23.70	14.20
DRB	23.80	23.90
AST-TO	1.54	1.16
TRB	31.20	31.40
FTM	14.80	17.70
BL	3.60	2.60
FTA	19.80	22.10
PF-Fewer	22.40	18.80
ST	9.00	6.30
TO-Fewer	15.40	12.20
Ftper	0.75	0.80
ORBper	0.31	0.31
ORB	7.40	7.50

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Joventut Badalona vs Monaco at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Monaco for EuroCup, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Joventut Badalona	1.57	1.65
Monaco	2.4	2.55
Joventut Badalona HC	-3.5	-3.50
Monaco HC	+3.5	3.50
Point Line	162.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	H	Nanterre 92	W	95	90	10	2	W 5	90	88
Jan 13	A	Unicaja	W	95	86	9	2	W 4	93	80
Dec 30	H	JL Bourg	W	90	75	8	2	W 3	90	75
Dec 15	H	UNICS	W	84	77	7	2	W 2	87	76
Dec 8	A	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	89	75	6	2	W 1	81	80
Nov 19	A	Partizan NIS	L	75	78	5	2	L 2	80	80
Nov 17	H	Bahcesehir	L	77	87	5	1	L 1	75	86
Oct 28	A	UNICS	W	93	91	5	0	W 4	97	89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 19	H	Unicaja	W	90	71	8	4	W 4	88	66
Jan 13	A	Nanterre 92	W	93	65	7	4	W 3	88	64
Dec 29	H	MoraBanc Andorra	W	66	64	6	4	W 2	70	69
Dec 18	A	Lietkabelis	W	88	64	5	4	W 1	86	70
Dec 16	A	Lokomotiv Kuban	L	72	76	4	4	L 2	71	67
Dec 9	H	Virtus Bologna	L	68	74	4	3	L 1	73	67
Nov 17	A	Antwerp Giants	W	75	67	4	2	W 1	70	73
Oct 28	H	Lokomotiv Kuban	L	72	88	3	2	L 2	71	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 79 points and the Monaco 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Var	Joventut Badalona	Monaco
FG%	0.57	0.52
ASS	20.70	15.10
DRB	22.50	21.70
AST-TO	1.64	1.34
TRB	32.10	33.20
FTM	16.60	13.90
BL	1.90	2.30
FTA	21.20	20.00
PF-Fewer	19.50	20.80
ST	5.30	7.60
TO-Fewer	12.60	11.30
Ftper	0.78	0.70
ORBper	0.43	0.53
ORB	9.60	11.50

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Mornar Bar vs Unics at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mornar Bar and Unics for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Mornar Bar	2.4	2.22
Unics	1.57	1.82
Mornar Bar HC	+2.5	2.00
Unics HC	-2.5	-2.00
Point Line	158.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mornar Bar are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	H	MoraBanc Andorra	L	71	74	6	6	L 1	75	80
Jan 13	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	102	100	6	5	W 3	102	100
Dec 16	A	Buducnost VOLI	W	84	78	5	5	W 2	86	78
Dec 9	H	Metropolitans 92	W	89	78	4	5	W 1	89	78
Nov 18	A	Germani Brescia	L	75	77	3	5	L 3	72	81
Nov 11	A	Unicaja	L	72	98	3	4	L 2	70	91
Nov 3	H	ratiopharm Ulm	L	66	82	3	3	L 1	68	83
Oct 28	H	Buducnost VOLI	W	85	82	3	2	W 1	87	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	73	62	8	4	W 2	73	62
Jan 13	A	MoraBanc Andorra	W	73	66	7	4	W 1	77	71
Dec 15	A	Joventut	L	77	84	6	4	L 1	78	76
Dec 9	H	JL Bourg	W	76	71	6	3	W 2	76	71
Nov 19	A	JL Bourg	W	86	74	5	3	W 1	86	74
Nov 17	A	Partizan NIS	L	86	89	4	3	L 1	92	91
Nov 10	A	Bahcesehir	W	70	67	4	2	W 2	68	66
Nov 4	H	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	90	87	3	2	W 1	82	92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mornar Bar and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mornar Bar.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mornar Bar (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mornar Bar will expected to score 80 points and the Unics 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Mornar Bar	Unics
FG%	0.54	0.54
ASS	15.80	17.60
DRB	23.40	21.80
AST-TO	1.14	1.61
TRB	29.00	31.70
FTM	15.10	11.90
BL	3.40	1.50
FTA	20.30	14.80
PF-Fewer	19.30	21.40
ST	5.50	7.20
TO-Fewer	13.80	10.90
Ftper	0.74	0.80
ORBper	0.24	0.45
ORB	5.60	9.90

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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Partizan at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Partizan for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Lokomotiv Kuban	1.19	1.24
Partizan	4.75	5.10
Lokomotiv Kuban HC	-10.5	-8.50
Partizan HC	+10.5	8.50
Point Line	163.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 20	A	Dolomiti Energia Trento	L	84	96	8	4	L 2	91	102
Jan 12	H	Metropolitans 92	L	79	83	8	3	L 1	79	83
Dec 16	H	Monaco	W	76	72	8	2	W 3	85	72
Dec 9	A	MoraBanc Andorra	W	106	100	7	2	W 2	112	108
Nov 18	H	Lietkabelis	W	94	90	6	2	W 1	92	99
Nov 11	H	Virtus Bologna	L	83	89	5	2	L 1	89	81
Nov 4	A	Antwerp Giants	W	114	94	5	1	W 4	106	102
Oct 28	A	Monaco	W	88	72	4	1	W 3	98	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Partizan are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 19	A	Metropolitans 92	L	62	79	7	5	L 1	62	79
Jan 13	H	Dolomiti Energia Trento	W	71	43	7	4	W 2	77	46
Dec 29	A	Umana Reyer Venezia	W	79	59	6	4	W 1	72	63
Dec 15	A	JL Bourg	L	71	73	5	4	L 1	71	73
Dec 9	H	Bahcesehir	W	88	75	5	3	W 3	85	74
Nov 19	H	Joventut	W	78	75	4	3	W 2	79	68
Nov 17	H	UNICS	W	89	86	3	3	W 1	92	84
Oct 28	H	JL Bourg	L	76	89	2	3	L 1	76	89

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Partizan.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Partizan and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Partizan in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 83 points and the Partizan 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Lokomotiv Kuban	Partizan
FG%	0.54	0.54
ASS	18.70	14.50
DRB	24.80	20.50
AST-TO	1.46	1.09
TRB	36.40	31.00
FTM	16.00	12.00
BL	3.20	2.30
FTA	23.20	17.30
PF-Fewer	19.70	20.50
ST	6.20	6.90
TO-Fewer	12.80	13.30
Ftper	0.69	0.70
ORBper	0.47	0.51
ORB	11.60	10.50

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Unicaja Malaga vs Nanterre at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Nanterre for EuroCup, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Unicaja Malaga	1.15	1.85
Nanterre	5.4	2.18
Unicaja Malaga HC	-11.5	-2.00
Nanterre HC	+11.5	2.00
Point Line	160.5	166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 19	A	Monaco	L	71	90	7	5	L 3	79	90
Jan 13	H	Joventut	L	86	95	7	4	L 2	87	86
Dec 16	H	ratiopharm Ulm	L	90	94	7	3	L 1	93	95
Dec 9	A	Germani Brescia	W