2021 01 26 BCL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rytas Vilnius vs Strasbourg at 26 January 2021
Limoges vs Hapoel Jerusalem at 26 January 2021
Turk Telekom vs Igokea at 26 January 2021
VEF Riga vs Peristeri at 26 January 2021
Oostende vs Darussafaka at 27 January 2021
Karsiyaka vs Bilbao at 27 January 2021
Brindisi vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 January 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Fortitudo Bologna at 27 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Rytas Vilnius vs Strasbourg at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rytas Vilnius and Strasbourg for BCL, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Rytas Vilnius

3.15

1.82

Strasbourg

1.37

2.22

Rytas Vilnius HC

+6.5

-2.00

Strasbourg HC

-6.5

2.00

Point Line

167.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Rytas Vilnius are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Peristeri BC

L

74

81

1

4

74

82

Dec 23

A

BC VEF Riga

L

60

84

1

3

60

80

Dec 8

H

BC VEF Riga

L

81

85

1

2

82

81

Nov 10

A

Strasbourg IG

W

83

81

1

1

87

79

Oct 27

H

Peristeri BC

L

88

106

0

1

88

107

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Strasbourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

BC VEF Riga

W

101

94

4

1

102

90

Dec 22

A

Peristeri BC

W

79

76

3

1

79

76

Dec 8

H

Peristeri BC

W

77

57

2

1

77

57

Nov 10

H

Lietuvos Rytas

L

81

83

1

1

74

87

Oct 28

A

BC VEF Riga

W

77

75

1

0

78

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Rytas Vilnius and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Strasbourg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Strasbourg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Rytas Vilnius.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Rytas Vilnius (in the first graph) and by Strasbourg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Rytas Vilnius will expected to score 77 points and the Strasbourg 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Rytas Vilnius

Strasbourg

FG%

0.50

0.56

ASS

17.40

16.20

DRB

19.20

21.60

AST-TO

1.19

0.86

TRB

29.40

28.40

FTM

15.00

17.40

BL

1.40

3.20

FTA

20.40

24.00

PF-Fewer

19.20

18.20

ST

6.00

5.40

TO-Fewer

14.60

18.80

Ftper

0.74

0.72

ORBper

0.53

0.31

ORB

10.20

6.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Limoges vs Hapoel Jerusalem at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Limoges and Hapoel Jerusalem for BCL, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Limoges

2.85

2.32

Hapoel Jerusalem

1.42

1.76

Limoges HC

+5.5

2.50

Hapoel Jerusalem HC

-5.5

-2.50

Point Line

158.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

BC Igokea

L

73

76

1

4

78

82

Dec 23

H

Turk Telekom

L

70

75

1

3

72

77

Dec 9

A

Turk Telekom

L

73

76

1

2

75

78

Nov 11

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

L

75

81

1

1

77

80

Oct 28

H

BC Igokea

W

80

75

1

0

86

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Jerusalem are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

Turk Telekom

L

77

78

2

3

80

80

Dec 24

H

BC Igokea

W

84

68

2

2

90

74

Dec 22

A

BC Igokea

L

73

75

1

2

78

81

Nov 11

A

CSP Limoges

W

81

75

1

1

85

81

Oct 27

A

Turk Telekom

L

94

98

0

1

97

101

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Jerusalem.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Jerusalem and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Limoges (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Jerusalem in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Limoges will expected to score 80 points and the Hapoel Jerusalem 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Limoges

Hapoel Jerusalem

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

18.00

22.60

DRB

22.80

21.00

AST-TO

1.27

2.40

TRB

32.40

30.20

FTM

9.00

9.40

BL

1.60

2.60

FTA

13.00

13.80

PF-Fewer

20.40

21.80

ST

5.80

6.40

TO-Fewer

14.20

9.40

Ftper

0.69

0.68

ORBper

0.42

0.44

ORB

9.60

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Turk Telekom vs Igokea at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Igokea for BCL, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Turk Telekom

1.63

1.57

Igokea

2.3

2.76

Turk Telekom HC

-3.5

-4.50

Igokea HC

+3.5

4.50

Point Line

155.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

W

78

77

4

1

80

76

Dec 23

A

CSP Limoges

W

75

70

3

1

79

76

Dec 9

H

CSP Limoges

W

76

73

2

1

80

79

Nov 11

A

BC Igokea

L

66

77

1

1

71

83

Oct 27

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

W

98

94

1

0

100

93

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Igokea are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

CSP Limoges

W

76

73

3

2

80

79

Dec 24

A

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

L

68

84

2

2

70

83

Dec 22

H

Hapoel Bank Yahav Jerusalem

W

75

73

2

1

77

72

Nov 11

H

Turk Telekom

W

77

66

1

1

80

68

Oct 28

A

CSP Limoges

L

75

80

0

1

79

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Igokea.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Igokea and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Turk Telekom (in the first graph) and by Igokea in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Turk Telekom will expected to score 80 points and the Igokea 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Turk Telekom

Igokea

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

20.00

16.20

DRB

20.80

23.20

AST-TO

1.69

1.09

TRB

31.20

32.40

FTM

9.20

15.60

BL

2.20

1.40

FTA

11.80

22.00

PF-Fewer

20.80

22.00

ST

5.40

7.00

TO-Fewer

11.80

14.80

Ftper

0.78

0.71

ORBper

0.50

0.40

ORB

10.40

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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VEF Riga vs Peristeri at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between VEF Riga and Peristeri for BCL, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

VEF Riga

2.6

2.05

Peristeri

1.5

1.95

VEF Riga HC

+4.5

1.50

Peristeri HC

-4.5

-1.50

Point Line

154.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of VEF Riga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

A

Strasbourg IG

L

94

101

3

2

98

98

Dec 23

H

Lietuvos Rytas

W

84

60

3

1

77

63

Dec 8

A

Lietuvos Rytas

W

85

81

2

1

78

85

Nov 10

A

Peristeri BC

W

84

81

1

1

84

82

Oct 28

H

Strasbourg IG

L

75

77

0

1

78

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

H

Lietuvos Rytas

W

81

74

2

3

74

77

Dec 22

H

Strasbourg IG

L

76

79

1

3

80

77

Dec 8

A

Strasbourg IG

L

57

77

1

2

60

75

Nov 10

H

BC VEF Riga

L

81

84

1

1

82

80

Oct 27

A

Lietuvos Rytas

W

106

88

1

0

97

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by VEF Riga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by VEF Riga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by VEF Riga (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, VEF Riga will expected to score 82 points and the Peristeri 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

VEF Riga

Peristeri

FG%

0.49

0.56

ASS

18.00

19.00

DRB

18.60

20.20

AST-TO

1.76

1.22

TRB

28.80

32.00

FTM

10.80

9.00

BL

2.00

1.80

FTA

15.20

12.80

PF-Fewer

20.40

18.00

ST

9.80

7.40

TO-Fewer

10.20

15.60

Ftper

0.71

0.70

ORBper

0.55

0.58

ORB

10.20

11.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Oostende vs Darussafaka at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oostende and Darussafaka for BCL, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Oostende

2.6

1.95

Darussafaka

1.5

2.05

Oostende HC

+4.5

-1.50

Darussafaka HC

-4.5

1.50

Point Line

160.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Oostende are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

73

88

1

4

77

77

Dec 22

A

Enel Brindisi

L

81

93

1

3

78

86

Dec 9

H

Enel Brindisi

L

80

92

1

2

77

85

Nov 10

H

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

W

99

98

1

1

104

86

Oct 28

A

Darussafaka Basketbol Istanbul

L

74

79

0

1

70

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 13

H

Enel Brindisi

L

83

87

1

4

80

80

Dec 22

H

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

71

74

1

3

74

65

Dec 9

A

Hereda San Pablo Burgos

L

70

100

1

2

73

88

Nov 11

A

Enel Brindisi

L

81

92

1

1

78

85

Oct 28

H

Telenet BC Oostende

W

79

74

1

0

70

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Oostende and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Oostende.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Oostende (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Oostende will expected to score 80 points and the Darussafaka 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Oostende

Darussafaka

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

18.20

16.60

DRB

22.20

20.60

AST-TO

1.15

1.22

TRB

31.00

27.00

FTM

13.20

15.20

BL

2.00

2.40

FTA

19.20

20.60

PF-Fewer

20.20

23.80

ST

6.60

7.40

TO-Fewer

15.80

13.60

Ftper

0.69

0.74

ORBper

0.40

0.31

ORB

8.80

6.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Karsiyaka vs Bilbao at 27 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Bilbao for BCL, which will take place on 27 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

1.57

1.38

Bilbao

2.4

3.64

Karsiyaka HC

-3.5

-6.50

Bilbao HC

+3.5

6.50

Point Line

159.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

78

65

3

2

77

79

Jan 5

H

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

80

69

2

2

79

84

Dec 23

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

70

76

1

2

77

72

Dec 8

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

82

83

1

1

91

78

Oct 27

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

81

72

1

0

89

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 12

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

75

90

2

3

83

85

Dec 23

H

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

82

54

2

2

81

66

Dec 8

A

Fortituto Kontatto Bologna

W

69

64

1

2