2021 01 26 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Millwall vs Watford at 26 January 2021
Bristol City vs Huddersfield at 26 January 2021
Barnsley vs Cardiff at 27 January 2021
Swansea vs Brentford at 27 January 2021
Middlesbrough vs Rotherham at 27 January 2021
Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 27 January 2021


Millwall vs Watford at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Millwall and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Millwall

3.31

2.40

11.5

Draw

3.04

3.51

-4.4

Watford

2.40

3.34

-11.7

Over 2.5

2.42

2.29

2.3

Under 2.5

1.57

1.77

-7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Millwall, Over 2.5 (11.5 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Millwall in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance at home.
Millwall, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Huddersfield

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Nott’m Forest

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Bournemouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Middlesbrough

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G


Watford in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Norwich

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Millwall and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Millwall

29%

35%

15%

21%

Watford

35%

39%

12%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Millwall to score 0.95 goals and Watford to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Millwall to score 1.28 goals and Watford to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.93

1

4.22

2-3

2.29

2

4.48

4+

4.52

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

6.80

Un 1.5

2.93

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.28

2.99

2-3 goals

2.38

3.24

3.70

4+ goals

2.05

4.80

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.64

3.56

Un 1.5

2.77

3.28

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.81

9.46

2.92

Un 2.5

3.22

2.36

3.76

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.80

3.30

Un 3.5

2.53

3.26

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.52

4.15

No Goal

2.17

5.22

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

6.98

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.45

5.22

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bristol City vs Huddersfield at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol City and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol City

2.45

1.99

9.4

Draw

3.24

3.89

-5.2

Huddersfield

3.05

4.15

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.12

2.07

1.1

Under 2.5

1.74

1.93

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance at home.
Bristol City, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Preston

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Luton

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Dec

Preston

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Millwall

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Rotherham

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Dec

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N


Huddersfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Reading

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Watford

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

5

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol City and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol City

21%

31%

27%

21%

Huddersfield

36%

38%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.26 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.48 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Bristol City to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.73

1

5.24

2-3

2.01

2

4.02

4+

4.27

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.48

3.39

2-3 goals

1.79

4.33

4.74

4+ goals

2.09

3.60

4.11

Ov 1.5

1.88

4.07

4.52

Un 1.5

2.39

3.48

3.39

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.43

3.77

Un 2.5

2.44

2.69

4.58

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.60

4.11

Un 3.5

1.96

3.99

4.16

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.78

4.68

No Goal

1.73

6.48

3.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

5.94

3.61

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.48

3.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barnsley vs Cardiff at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

2.47

2.44

0.5

Draw

3.13

3.62

-4.3

Cardiff

3.08

3.18

-1.0

Over 2.5

2.20

2.20

0.0

Under 2.5

1.69

1.83

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnsley in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnsley in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance at home.
Barnsley, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnsley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Watford

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Rotherham

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Swansea

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

QPR

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Brentford

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Birmingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

08 Dec

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

26%

37%

19%

18%

Cardiff

33%

36%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.23 goals and Cardiff to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.29 goals and Cardiff to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.33

1

4.65

2-3

2.11

2

4.08

4+

4.44

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.33

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.53

3.23

2-3 goals

2.54

3.57

3.06

4+ goals

2.25

3.81

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.65

3.17

Un 1.5

2.46

3.53

3.23

Ov 2.5

2.01

7.71

2.68

Un 2.5

2.98

2.50

3.78

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.81

3.41

Un 3.5

2.51

3.56

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.59

3.58

No Goal

2.07

5.91

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

6.19

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

5.91

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Brentford at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

2.85

2.12

12.1

Draw

3.21

3.72

-4.3

Brentford

2.59

3.86

-12.7

Over 2.5

2.29

2.20

1.8

Under 2.5

1.64

1.83

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Barnsley

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Watford

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Barnsley

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Cardiff

A

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N


Brentford in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Bournemouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Cardiff

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Reading

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Watford

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Derby

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

24%

33%

24%

20%

Brentford

36%

40%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.07 goals and Brentford to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.39 goals and Brentford to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.37

1

4.72

2-3

2.08

2

4.05

4+

4.55

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.37

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.49

3.09

2-3 goals

1.93

3.67

4.76