# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Millwall vs Watford at 26 January 2021**** Bristol City vs Huddersfield at 26 January 2021**** Barnsley vs Cardiff at 27 January 2021**** Swansea vs Brentford at 27 January 2021**** Middlesbrough vs Rotherham at 27 January 2021**** Coventry vs Sheffield Weds at 27 January 2021**

###
Millwall vs Watford at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Millwall** and **Watford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Millwall |
3.31 |
2.40 |
11.5 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.51 |
-4.4 |

Watford |
2.40 |
3.34 |
-11.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.29 |
2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.77 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Millwall, Over 2.5 (11.5 %, 2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Millwall** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Millwall** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance** at home**.

Millwall,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** as a guest**.

Watford,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Millwall** and the red line for guest team, **Watford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Millwall |
29% |
35% |
15% |
21% |

Watford |
35% |
39% |
12% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Millwall** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Millwall** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
2.93 |

1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
2.29 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.67 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.28 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |
3.24 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.80 |
3.30 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.64 |
3.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.28 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
9.46 |
2.92 |

Un 2.5 |
3.22 |
2.36 |
3.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.80 |
3.30 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.26 |
3.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.52 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
5.22 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.98 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.22 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bristol City vs Huddersfield at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bristol City** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bristol City |
2.45 |
1.99 |
9.4 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.89 |
-5.2 |

Huddersfield |
3.05 |
4.15 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.07 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.93 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol City, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** at home**.

Bristol City,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Preston |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Luton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Preston |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Reading |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Watford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bristol City** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bristol City |
21% |
31% |
27% |
21% |

Huddersfield |
36% |
38% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bristol City** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bristol City** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Bristol City ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.48 |
3.39 |

2-3 goals |
1.79 |
4.33 |
4.74 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.60 |
4.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.07 |
4.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.48 |
3.39 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.43 |
3.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.69 |
4.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.60 |
4.11 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.99 |
4.16 |

Goal-Goal |
2.34 |
2.78 |
4.68 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
6.48 |
3.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.94 |
3.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.48 |
3.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barnsley vs Cardiff at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barnsley** and **Cardiff** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barnsley |
2.47 |
2.44 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.62 |
-4.3 |

Cardiff |
3.08 |
3.18 |
-1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.20 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.83 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barnsley (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barnsley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnsley** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Barnsley’s performance** at home**.

Barnsley,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnsley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnsley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Watford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Cardiff** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cardiff** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance** as a guest**.

Cardiff,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cardiff scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
QPR |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barnsley** and the red line for guest team, **Cardiff. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barnsley |
26% |
37% |
19% |
18% |

Cardiff |
33% |
36% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barnsley** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barnsley** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Cardiff** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.53 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.54 |
3.57 |
3.06 |

4+ goals |
2.25 |
3.81 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.65 |
3.17 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.53 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
7.71 |
2.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.50 |
3.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.81 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.56 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.59 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.91 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.19 |
2.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.91 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swansea vs Brentford at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
2.85 |
2.12 |
12.1 |

Draw |
3.21 |
3.72 |
-4.3 |

Brentford |
2.59 |
3.86 |
-12.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.20 |
1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.83 |
-6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swansea, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Watford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Reading |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Derby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
24% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Brentford |
36% |
40% |
13% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.49 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
3.67 |
4.76 |