2021 01 26 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bromley vs Woking at 26 January 2021
Wrexham vs Halifax at 26 January 2021
Torquay vs Sutton at 26 January 2021
King’s Lynn vs Stockport at 26 January 2021
Dover Athletic vs Barnet at 26 January 2021
Boreham Wood vs Chesterfield at 26 January 2021
Altrincham vs Wealdstone at 26 January 2021
Aldershot vs Weymouth at 26 January 2021
Eastleigh vs Dag and Red at 26 January 2021


Bromley vs Woking at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.07

2.19

-2.6

Draw

3.48

3.86

-2.8

Woking

3.31

3.52

-1.8

Over 2.5

1.88

1.99

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.90

2.01

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Yeovil

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Altrincham

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Nov

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G


Woking in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Dec

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Hartlepool

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Sutton

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

Barnet

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

25%

29%

25%

22%

Woking

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.49 goals and Woking to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.43 goals and Woking to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.83

1

5.49

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.83

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.30

2.93

2-3 goals

2.00

4.65

3.51

4+ goals

2.08

3.37

4.49

Ov 1.5

2.03

4.11

3.79

Un 1.5

2.81

3.30

2.93

Ov 2.5

1.77

6.62

3.52

Un 2.5

2.86

2.72

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.08

3.37

4.49

Un 3.5

2.22

4.07

3.28

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.84

4.37

No Goal

2.01

6.20

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

5.36

3.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.20

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Halifax at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.63

2.36

4.4

Draw

3.35

3.76

-3.3

Halifax

2.51

3.23

-8.9

Over 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.87

2.00

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham (4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Chesterfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Weymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Torquay

A

1

3

L

O

G

01 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Nov

Bromley

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Nov

Sutton

H

4

0

W

O

N


Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Weymouth

A

5

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

24%

33%

24%

19%

Halifax

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.24 goals and Halifax to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.38 goals and Halifax to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.91

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.10

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.56

3.05

2-3 goals

2.27

4.14

3.13

4+ goals

2.38

3.31

3.59

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.82

3.28

Un 1.5

2.56

3.56

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.49

2.87

Un 2.5

2.89

2.63

3.65

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.31

3.59

Un 3.5

2.37

3.92

3.10

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.73

3.68

No Goal

2.04

6.49

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.39

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.49

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Sutton at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.07

2.23

-3.5

Draw

3.35

3.83

-3.7

Sutton

3.35

3.42

-0.6

Over 2.5

1.81

2.00

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.95

2.00

-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Notts County

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Weymouth

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Yeovil

H

6

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Wrexham

H

3

1

W

O

G


Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Dec

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Solihull

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Woking

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Nov

Wrexham

A

0

4

L

O

N

21 Nov

Wealdstone

A

3

3

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

25%

29%

25%

21%

Sutton

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.53 goals and Sutton to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.42 goals and Sutton to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.82

1

5.46

2-3

2.07

2

4.20

4+

3.94

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.82

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.32

2.94

2-3 goals

2.06

4.57

3.38

4+ goals

2.13

3.34

4.31

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.05

3.65

Un 1.5

2.79

3.32

2.94

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.58

3.36

Un 2.5

2.89

2.70

3.52

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.34

4.31

Un 3.5

2.27

4.03

3.22

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.82

4.20

No Goal

2.04

6.16

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.36

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.16

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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King’s Lynn vs Stockport at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between King’s Lynn and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

King’s Lynn

4.38

2.81

12.8

Draw

3.80

3.66

1.0

Stockport

1.73

2.70

-20.8

Over 2.5

1.66

2.02

-10.7

Under 2.5

2.17

1.98

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.8 %, 1 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

King’s Lynn in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance at home.
King’s Lynn, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Halifax

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

Bromley

H

1

4

L

O

G

21 Nov

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Nov

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Dec

Wrexham

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Altrincham

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, King’s Lynn and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

King’s Lynn

25%

38%

22%

14%

Stockport

26%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 0.95 goals and Stockport to score 1.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) King’s Lynn to score 1.25 goals and Stockport to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.92

1

5.32

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.81

2.93

2-3 goals