Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven at 26 January 2021
Zwolle vs Heracles at 26 January 2021
Groningen vs Den Haag at 26 January 2021
Waalwijk vs For Sittard at 27 January 2021
VVV Venlo vs Vitesse at 27 January 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht at 27 January 2021
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord at 27 January 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs Twente at 28 January 2021
Ajax vs Willem II at 28 January 2021
FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
FC Emmen |
7.22 |
2.70 |
23.2 |
|
Draw |
5.00 |
3.72 |
6.9 |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
1.41 |
2.77 |
-34.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.62 |
-4.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.62 |
-0.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw (23.2 %, 6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance as a guest.
PSV Eindhoven, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, PSV Eindhoven.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
FC Emmen |
21% |
30% |
29% |
20% |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
13% |
44% |
24% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.71 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.49 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
37.04 |
0-1 |
6.33 |
|
1 |
7.63 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
2.84 |
|
3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |
|
4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
6.33 |
|
5 |
9.80 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
|
6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
|
Gg |
1.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
|
NoG |
3.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.95 |
5.85 |
1.74 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.65 |
3.04 |
|
4+ goals |
2.57 |
3.29 |
3.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.49 |
3.13 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
5.85 |
1.74 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.78 |
2.82 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.82 |
2.37 |
2.70 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.29 |
3.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
4.02 |
2.57 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.85 |
3.78 |
|
No Goal |
2.93 |
11.52 |
1.75 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.18 |
3.04 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
11.52 |
1.75 |
Go to Top
Zwolle vs Heracles at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Zwolle |
2.46 |
2.04 |
8.4 |
|
Draw |
3.35 |
4.17 |
-5.9 |
|
Heracles |
2.90 |
3.73 |
-7.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
1.48 |
19.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.07 |
-23.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 19.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Heracles in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance as a guest.
Heracles, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Heracles.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Zwolle |
14% |
26% |
26% |
34% |
|
Heracles |
30% |
24% |
26% |
20% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.26 goals and Heracles to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.81 goals and Heracles to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.18 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
24.39 |
0-1 |
6.62 |
|
1 |
9.09 |
2-3 |
2.30 |
|
2 |
5.71 |
4+ |
2.41 |
|
3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |
|
4 |
4.95 |
Un 1.5 |
6.62 |
|
5 |
6.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
|
6+ |
14.29 |
Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
|
Gg |
1.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
|
NoG |
2.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.71 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.96 |
3.68 |
4.58 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.79 |
7.13 |
3.32 |
|
4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.01 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
4.27 |
3.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.68 |
4.58 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
4.89 |
3.38 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
3.20 |
4.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.01 |
3.95 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
5.75 |
3.57 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
3.04 |
3.52 |
|
No Goal |
1.53 |
9.66 |
4.08 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
3.94 |
3.16 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
9.66 |
3.84 |
Go to Top
Groningen vs Den Haag at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Groningen |
1.42 |
1.69 |
-11.3 |
|
Draw |
4.67 |
4.59 |
0.4 |
|
Den Haag |
7.30 |
5.29 |
5.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.70 |
3.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.43 |
-7.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Den Haag, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 5.2 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Den Haag in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Groningen |
16% |
18% |
35% |
31% |
|
Den Haag |
40% |
30% |
18% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 2.06 goals and Den Haag to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.81 goals and Den Haag to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
5.35 |
|
1 |
8.33 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.25 |
|
3 |
3.56 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |
|
4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
5.35 |
|
5 |
10.42 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
|
6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.25 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.82 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.36 |
9.51 |
6.30 |
|
4+ goals |
2.04 |
3.14 |
5.22 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |
5.38 |
5.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.82 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
6.01 |
5.40 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
3.42 |
5.19 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.14 |
5.22 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.56 |
5.76 |
5.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.95 |
3.29 |
5.46 |
|
No Goal |
1.49 |
7.49 |
5.18 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
4.53 |
4.88 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.49 |
4.52 |
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Waalwijk vs For Sittard at 27 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Waalwijk |
2.62 |
2.51 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.55 |
3.79 |
-1.8 |
|
For Sittard |
2.54 |
2.96 |
-5.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.79 |
-2.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.26 |
-2.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
For Sittard in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Waalwijk |
23% |
32% |
23% |
22% |
|
For Sittard |
21% |
41% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.37 goals and For Sittard to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.44 goals and For Sittard to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
20.00 |
0-1 |
4.72 |
|
1 |
6.17 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.23 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |
|
4 |
5.24 |
Un 1.5 |
4.72 |
|
5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
|
Gg |
1.66 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |
|
NoG |
2.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |