# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven at 26 January 2021**** Zwolle vs Heracles at 26 January 2021**** Groningen vs Den Haag at 26 January 2021**** Waalwijk vs For Sittard at 27 January 2021**** VVV Venlo vs Vitesse at 27 January 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht at 27 January 2021**** Heerenveen vs Feyenoord at 27 January 2021**** Sparta Rotterdam vs Twente at 28 January 2021**** Ajax vs Willem II at 28 January 2021**

###
FC Emmen vs PSV Eindhoven at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **PSV Eindhoven** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
7.22 |
2.70 |
23.2 |

Draw |
5.00 |
3.72 |
6.9 |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.41 |
2.77 |
-34.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.62 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.62 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Draw (23.2 %, 6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** as a guest**.

PSV Eindhoven,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **PSV Eindhoven. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
21% |
30% |
29% |
20% |

PSV Eindhoven |
13% |
44% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **0.71 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.12** goals in the game and the guest team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.49 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.96** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
37.04 |
0-1 |
6.33 |

1 |
7.63 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
2.84 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
6.33 |

5 |
9.80 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |

Gg |
1.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |

NoG |
3.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.95 |
5.85 |
1.74 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.65 |
3.04 |

4+ goals |
2.57 |
3.29 |
3.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.49 |
3.13 |

Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
5.85 |
1.74 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.78 |
2.82 |

Un 2.5 |
4.82 |
2.37 |
2.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.29 |
3.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
4.02 |
2.57 |

Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.85 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
2.93 |
11.52 |
1.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.18 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
11.52 |
1.75 |

####
Go to Top

###
Zwolle vs Heracles at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Heracles** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
2.46 |
2.04 |
8.4 |

Draw |
3.35 |
4.17 |
-5.9 |

Heracles |
2.90 |
3.73 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
1.48 |
19.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.07 |
-23.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 19.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** as a guest**.

Heracles,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Heracles. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
14% |
26% |
26% |
34% |

Heracles |
30% |
24% |
26% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.18** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
24.39 |
0-1 |
6.62 |

1 |
9.09 |
2-3 |
2.30 |

2 |
5.71 |
4+ |
2.41 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
4.95 |
Un 1.5 |
6.62 |

5 |
6.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |

6+ |
14.29 |
Un 2.5 |
3.07 |

Gg |
1.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |

NoG |
2.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.71 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.96 |
3.68 |
4.58 |

2-3 goals |
1.79 |
7.13 |
3.32 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.01 |
3.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
4.27 |
3.60 |

Un 1.5 |
1.96 |
3.68 |
4.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
4.89 |
3.38 |

Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
3.20 |
4.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.01 |
3.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
5.75 |
3.57 |

Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
3.04 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
9.66 |
4.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
3.94 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
9.66 |
3.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Groningen vs Den Haag at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Groningen** and **Den Haag** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Groningen |
1.42 |
1.69 |
-11.3 |

Draw |
4.67 |
4.59 |
0.4 |

Den Haag |
7.30 |
5.29 |
5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.70 |
3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.43 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Den Haag, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 5.2 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** at home**.

Groningen,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** as a guest**.

Den Haag,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Groningen** and the red line for guest team, **Den Haag. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Groningen |
16% |
18% |
35% |
31% |

Den Haag |
40% |
30% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **2.06 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **0.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **1.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
5.35 |

1 |
8.33 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
3.25 |

3 |
3.56 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.65 |
Un 1.5 |
5.35 |

5 |
10.42 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.25 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.82 |

2-3 goals |
1.36 |
9.51 |
6.30 |

4+ goals |
2.04 |
3.14 |
5.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |
5.38 |
5.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.82 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
6.01 |
5.40 |

Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
3.42 |
5.19 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.14 |
5.22 |

Un 3.5 |
1.56 |
5.76 |
5.36 |

Goal-Goal |
1.95 |
3.29 |
5.46 |

No Goal |
1.49 |
7.49 |
5.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
4.53 |
4.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.49 |
4.52 |

####
Go to Top

###
Waalwijk vs For Sittard at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **For Sittard** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **27 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
2.62 |
2.51 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.79 |
-1.8 |

For Sittard |
2.54 |
2.96 |
-5.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.79 |
-2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.26 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** as a guest**.

For Sittard,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Willem II |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **For Sittard. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
23% |
32% |
23% |
22% |

For Sittard |
21% |
41% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.37 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.04** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.44 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.00 |
0-1 |
4.72 |

1 |
6.17 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
3.23 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.24 |
Un 1.5 |
4.72 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |

6+ |
29.41 |
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |

Gg |
1.66 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |

NoG |
2.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |