2021 01 26 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Bristol Rvs at 26 January 2021
Accrington vs Hull at 26 January 2021
Wigan vs Blackpool at 26 January 2021
Swindon vs Plymouth at 26 January 2021
Rochdale vs Oxford at 26 January 2021
Portsmouth vs Lincoln at 26 January 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Charlton at 26 January 2021
Ipswich vs Sunderland at 26 January 2021
Gillingham vs Crewe at 26 January 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Northampton at 26 January 2021
Burton vs Shrewsbury at 26 January 2021
Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon at 26 January 2021


Peterboro vs Bristol Rvs at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.56

1.94

-12.6

Draw

4.12

3.83

1.8

Bristol Rvs

5.87

4.50

5.2

Over 2.5

1.85

2.19

-8.4

Under 2.5

1.97

1.84

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bristol Rvs, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 5.2 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Charlton

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Rochdale

H

4

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

2

L

O

G


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Oxford

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Jan

Crewe

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Blackpool

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Plymouth

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 Dec

Gillingham

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

17%

38%

27%

18%

Bristol Rvs

39%

35%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.88 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.46 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.62

1

4.78

2-3

1.95

2

3.75

4+

4.69

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.62

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.85

4.12

4.60

2-3 goals

1.88

3.85

4.79

4+ goals

2.22

3.49

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.97

3.74

4.45

Un 1.5

1.85

4.12

4.60

Ov 2.5

1.74

7.51

3.42

Un 2.5

2.14

2.71

6.10

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.49

3.80

Un 3.5

1.87

3.94

4.72

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.59

4.23

No Goal

1.52

7.43

4.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

6.07

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.61

7.43

4.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Accrington vs Hull at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Hull for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Accrington

3.95

2.65

12.4

Draw

3.56

3.82

-1.9

Hull

1.95

2.78

-15.3

Over 2.5

1.97

1.93

1.1

Under 2.5

1.86

2.07

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Over 2.5 (12.4 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Gillingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Charlton

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Wigan

A

3

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

2

2

D

O

G


Hull in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hull in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance as a guest.
Hull, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Portsmouth

A

4

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Accrington

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Blackpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Sunderland

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Charlton

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Portsmouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Blackpool

A

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Hull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Accrington

29%

28%

25%

18%

Hull

24%

37%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 0.93 goals and Hull to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Hull to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.32 goals and Hull to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.07

1

5.68

2-3

2.07

2

4.24

4+

3.70

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.57

3.51

2.30

2-3 goals

2.41

4.55

2.74

4+ goals

2.50

3.14

3.55

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.92

2.98

Un 1.5

3.57

3.51

2.30

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.00

2.80

Un 2.5

3.68

2.74

2.75

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.14

3.55

Un 3.5

2.71

4.14

2.57

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.80

3.76

No Goal

2.64

6.57

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.02

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.87

6.57

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Wigan vs Blackpool at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.93

2.39

16.4

Draw

3.52

3.80

-2.1

Blackpool

1.95

3.13

-19.3

Over 2.5

2.04

1.97

1.7

Under 2.5

1.79

2.03

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Over 2.5 (16.4 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Dec

Burton

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Rochdale

H

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Accrington

H

4

3

W

O

G

05 Dec

Sunderland

A

1

0

W

U

N


Blackpool in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Hull

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Shrewsbury

A

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Hull

H

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Oxford

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Portsmouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

26%

29%

27%

18%

Blackpool

29%

37%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 0.91 goals and Blackpool to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Blackpool to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.38 goals and Blackpool to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.95

1

5.59

2-3

2.05

2

4.17

4+

3.83

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.95

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.98

3.42

2.69

2-3 goals

2.15

4.51

3.18

4+ goals

2.44

3.18

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.94

3.32

Un 1.5

2.98

3.42

2.69

Ov 2.5

1.98

6.20

3.01

Un 2.5

3.06

2.71

3.29

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.18

3.62

Un 3.5

2.38

4.07

3.00

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.79

3.90

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.15

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

6.36

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Swindon vs Plymouth at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.68

2.48

3.0

Draw

3.60

3.60

0.0

Plymouth

2.49

3.14

-8.3

Over 2.5

1.73

2.16

-11.5

Under 2.5

2.13

1.86

6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Under 2.5 (3 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Doncaster

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Ipswich

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Dec

Charlton

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Gillingham

A

0

2

L

U

N


Plymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Oxford

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol Rvs

A

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

25%

37%

23%

15%

Plymouth

30%

36%

24%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.34 goals and Plymouth to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.29 goals and Plymouth to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.64

1

4.98

2-3

1.99

2

3.82

4+

4.55

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46