# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Salford vs Cambridge at 26 January 2021**** Barrow vs Grimsby at 26 January 2021**** Cheltenham vs Oldham at 26 January 2021**** Exeter vs Morecambe at 26 January 2021**** Mansfield vs Bolton at 26 January 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Port Vale at 26 January 2021**** Southend vs Bradford at 26 January 2021**** Stevenage vs Colchester at 26 January 2021**** Tranmere vs Harrogate at 26 January 2021**** Newport County vs Carlisle at 26 January 2021**

###
Salford vs Cambridge at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Cambridge** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.05 |
2.51 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.64 |
-3.2 |

Cambridge |
3.92 |
3.05 |
7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.26 |
3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.79 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cambridge, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** as a guest**.

Cambridge,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Southend |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Cambridge. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
30% |
30% |
28% |
13% |

Cambridge |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.18 |
3.15 |
2.72 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
4.56 |
3.18 |

4+ goals |
2.80 |
2.92 |
3.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.91 |
3.23 |

Un 1.5 |
3.18 |
3.15 |
2.72 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.23 |
2.85 |

Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.74 |
3.24 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.80 |
2.92 |
3.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.90 |
2.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.66 |
3.88 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
5.49 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.20 |
3.00 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.49 |
2.61 |

####
Go to Top

###
Barrow vs Grimsby at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barrow** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barrow |
1.77 |
2.10 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.77 |
-0.5 |

Grimsby |
4.59 |
3.86 |
4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.02 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.98 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby (4.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** at home**.

Barrow,** at home**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barrow** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barrow |
20% |
35% |
25% |
21% |

Grimsby |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.81** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barrow** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Barrow ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.91 |
3.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.07 |
3.85 |
3.88 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
3.54 |
4.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.74 |
4.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.91 |
3.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.14 |
3.40 |

Un 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.59 |
4.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.54 |
4.36 |

Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.87 |
3.74 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.69 |
4.22 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
7.12 |
3.53 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.88 |
3.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
7.12 |
3.33 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cheltenham vs Oldham at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.93 |
2.13 |
-4.9 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.72 |
-3.0 |

Oldham |
4.15 |
3.82 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.06 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.94 |
-0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Exeter |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
19% |
39% |
20% |
22% |

Oldham |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
4.19 |
3.83 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.46 |
3.61 |

4+ goals |
1.94 |
3.89 |
4.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.59 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.19 |
3.83 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
7.84 |
3.18 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.50 |
4.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.89 |
4.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.68 |
3.68 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.63 |
3.96 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
7.32 |
3.69 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.39 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.32 |
3.44 |

####
Go to Top

###
Exeter vs Morecambe at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Exeter** and **Morecambe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Exeter |
1.88 |
2.08 |
-5.1 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.77 |
-0.2 |

Morecambe |
3.94 |
3.92 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.66 |
2.01 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.23 |
1.99 |
5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** at home**.

Exeter,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** as a guest**.

Morecambe,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Exeter** and the red line for guest team, **Morecambe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Exeter |
18% |
40% |
19% |
23% |

Morecambe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Exeter** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the home team **Exeter ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Exeter** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Exeter ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.90 |
4.37 |