2021 01 26 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Salford vs Cambridge at 26 January 2021
Barrow vs Grimsby at 26 January 2021
Cheltenham vs Oldham at 26 January 2021
Exeter vs Morecambe at 26 January 2021
Mansfield vs Bolton at 26 January 2021
Scunthorpe vs Port Vale at 26 January 2021
Southend vs Bradford at 26 January 2021
Stevenage vs Colchester at 26 January 2021
Tranmere vs Harrogate at 26 January 2021
Newport County vs Carlisle at 26 January 2021


Salford vs Cambridge at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Cambridge for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

2.05

2.51

-8.9

Draw

3.26

3.64

-3.2

Cambridge

3.92

3.05

7.3

Over 2.5

2.43

2.26

3.1

Under 2.5

1.57

1.79

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cambridge, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Harrogate

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Jan

Mansfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Walsall

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G


Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance as a guest.
Cambridge, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Bradford

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Southend

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Colchester

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Stevenage

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Bradford

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Cambridge.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

30%

30%

28%

13%

Cambridge

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.3 goals and Cambridge to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.23 goals and Cambridge to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.34

1

4.90

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.83

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.18

3.15

2.72

2-3 goals

2.14

4.56

3.18

4+ goals

2.80

2.92

3.34

Ov 1.5

2.30

3.91

3.23

Un 1.5

3.18

3.15

2.72

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.23

2.85

Un 2.5

3.06

2.74

3.24

Ov 3.5

2.80

2.92

3.34

Un 3.5

2.44

3.90

2.99

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.66

3.88

No Goal

2.34

5.49

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

5.20

3.00

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

5.49

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Barrow vs Grimsby at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barrow

1.77

2.10

-8.9

Draw

3.70

3.77

-0.5

Grimsby

4.59

3.86

4.1

Over 2.5

2.01

2.02

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.80

1.98

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby (4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barrow in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance at home.
Barrow, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Southend

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Tranmere

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Port Vale

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Cheltenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Scunthorpe

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Crawley Town

A

2

4

L

O

G

05 Dec

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N


Grimsby in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Port Vale

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Oldham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Morecambe

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Bradford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barrow

20%

35%

25%

21%

Grimsby

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.62 goals and Grimsby to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.46 goals and Grimsby to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.94

1

5.29

2-3

2.00

2

3.97

4+

4.10

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.94

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.91

3.48

2-3 goals

2.07

3.85

3.88

4+ goals

2.05

3.54

4.36

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.74

4.03

Un 1.5

2.19

3.91

3.48

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.14

3.40

Un 2.5

2.56

2.59

4.48

Ov 3.5

2.05

3.54

4.36

Un 3.5

2.11

3.87

3.74

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.69

4.22

No Goal

1.73

7.12

3.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.88

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

7.12

3.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cheltenham vs Oldham at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cheltenham

1.93

2.13

-4.9

Draw

3.35

3.72

-3.0

Oldham

4.15

3.82

2.1

Over 2.5

1.89

2.06

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.91

1.94

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cheltenham in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Colchester

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Barrow

A

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Salford

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Exeter

H

5

3

W

O

G


Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Newport County

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Mansfield

H

2

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Newport County

A

4

2

W

O

G

15 Dec

Walsall

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bradford

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cheltenham

19%

39%

20%

22%

Oldham

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.61 goals and Oldham to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.45 goals and Oldham to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

3.79

1

4.98

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.15

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.19

3.83

2-3 goals

2.30

3.46

3.61

4+ goals

1.94

3.89

4.38

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.59

3.83

Un 1.5

2.00

4.19

3.83

Ov 2.5

1.79

7.84

3.18

Un 2.5

2.57

2.50

4.76

Ov 3.5

1.94

3.89

4.38

Un 3.5

2.19

3.68

3.68

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.63

3.96

No Goal

1.69

7.32

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

6.39

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

7.32

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Exeter vs Morecambe at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Exeter and Morecambe for League Two (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Exeter

1.88

2.08

-5.1

Draw

3.74

3.77

-0.2

Morecambe

3.94

3.92

0.1

Over 2.5

1.66

2.01

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.23

1.99

5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Exeter in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance at home.
Exeter, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Stevenage

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Harrogate

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Jan

Bolton

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Forest Green

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Tranmere

H

5

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Cheltenham

A

3

5

L

O

G

01 Dec

Grimsby

A

4

1

W

O

G


Morecambe in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance as a guest.
Morecambe, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Grimsby

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Exeter and the red line for guest team, Morecambe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Exeter

18%

40%

19%

23%

Morecambe

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.81 goals and Morecambe to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.48 goals and Morecambe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

3.88

1

5.03

2-3

2.03

2

4.08

4+

4.02

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.88

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.90

4.37