2021 01 26 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lorient vs Dijon at 27 January 2021


Lorient vs Dijon at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lorient and Dijon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lorient

2.22

2.27

-1.0

Draw

3.47

3.60

-1.0

Dijon

3.38

3.55

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.08

2.46

-7.4

Under 2.5

1.80

1.69

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lorient in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance at home.
Lorient, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Jan

Bordeaux

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Monaco

H

2

5

L

O

G

23 Dec

Nice

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Angers

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

1

L

U

N


Dijon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance as a guest.
Dijon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Marseille

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Jan

Reims

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Nimes

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

St Etienne

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lorient and the red line for guest team, Dijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lorient

26%

34%

28%

12%

Dijon

38%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.38 goals and Dijon to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Lorient to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.25 goals and Dijon to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.08

1

4.44

2-3

2.04

2

3.75

4+

5.49

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.08

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.25

3.39

2-3 goals

1.97

3.99

4.13

4+ goals

2.94

3.31

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.78

3.66

Un 1.5

2.52

3.25

3.39

Ov 2.5

1.96

7.38

2.82

Un 2.5

2.54

2.65

4.35

Ov 3.5

2.94

3.31

2.80

Un 3.5

2.16

3.66

3.80

Goal-Goal

2.81

2.56

3.93

No Goal

1.95

5.42

3.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

6.05

2.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

5.42

3.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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