Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Crystal Palace vs West Ham at 26 January 2021
Newcastle vs Leeds at 26 January 2021
Southampton vs Arsenal at 26 January 2021
West Brom vs Man City at 26 January 2021
Burnley vs Aston Villa at 27 January 2021
Chelsea vs Wolves at 27 January 2021
Everton vs Leicester at 27 January 2021
Man United vs Sheffield United at 27 January 2021
Brighton vs Fulham at 27 January 2021
Tottenham vs Liverpool at 28 January 2021
Crystal Palace vs West Ham at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Crystal Palace |
3.12 |
3.14 |
-0.2 |
|
Draw |
3.30 |
3.91 |
-4.7 |
|
West Ham |
2.41 |
2.35 |
1.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
1.92 |
7.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.09 |
-11.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Crystal Palace |
33% |
27% |
28% |
12% |
|
West Ham |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.04 goals and West Ham to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.2 goals and West Ham to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.68 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.92 |
3.17 |
2.33 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.59 |
5.60 |
2.30 |
|
4+ goals |
3.94 |
2.96 |
2.45 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.96 |
4.24 |
2.35 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |
3.17 |
2.33 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.67 |
2.16 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
2.92 |
2.59 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
2.96 |
2.45 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.93 |
4.45 |
2.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.88 |
2.93 |
|
No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.68 |
4.63 |
2.43 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
6.27 |
2.12 |
Go to Top
Newcastle vs Leeds at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Newcastle |
3.69 |
3.16 |
4.5 |
|
Draw |
3.82 |
3.89 |
-0.5 |
|
Leeds |
1.97 |
2.34 |
-8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.93 |
-8.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.08 |
3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Newcastle in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Man United |
A |
2 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Newcastle |
33% |
30% |
21% |
16% |
|
Leeds |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.11 goals and Leeds to score 1.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Leeds to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.2 goals and Leeds to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.92 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.62 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.59 |
3.27 |
2.41 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.01 |
4.90 |
2.16 |
|
4+ goals |
3.10 |
3.33 |
2.65 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
4.17 |
2.32 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.59 |
3.27 |
2.41 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.28 |
2.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.76 |
2.59 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.33 |
2.65 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.19 |
4.17 |
2.24 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.86 |
2.91 |
|
No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.01 |
2.36 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
6.27 |
2.08 |
Go to Top
Southampton vs Arsenal at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Southampton |
3.33 |
2.06 |
18.5 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.92 |
-3.9 |
|
Arsenal |
2.25 |
3.86 |
-18.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.03 |
0.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.97 |
-4.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton (18.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Southampton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Arsenal in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Southampton |
21% |
26% |
38% |
14% |
|
Arsenal |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.05 goals and Arsenal to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.45 goals and Arsenal to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.13 |
|
1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
1.90 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.29 |
|
3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.27 |
3.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.53 |
4.69 |
|
4+ goals |
3.07 |
2.71 |
3.28 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
4.19 |
4.14 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.27 |
3.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.71 |
3.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
3.01 |
4.35 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.07 |
2.71 |
3.28 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.54 |
4.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.85 |
4.29 |
|
No Goal |
1.79 |
6.55 |
3.46 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
4.88 |
3.50 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.55 |
3.54 |
Go to Top
West Brom vs Man City at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between West Brom and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
West Brom |
15.20 |
6.33 |
9.2 |
|
Draw |
7.15 |
4.52 |
8.1 |
|
Man City |
1.19 |
1.61 |
-21.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.87 |
-13.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.15 |
7.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.2 %, 8.1 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
West Brom in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance at home.
West Brom, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Brom and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
West Brom |
44% |
28% |
29% |
0% |
|
Man City |
13% |
30% |
28% |
29% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 0.41 goals and Man City to score 2.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.13 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 2.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 0.85 goals and Man City to score 1.73 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.52 |
|
1 |
6.06 |
2-3 |
1.87 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.08 |
|
3 |
3.45 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |
|
5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
6+ |
-1000.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |
|
NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
6.31 |