# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crystal Palace vs West Ham at 26 January 2021**** Newcastle vs Leeds at 26 January 2021**** Southampton vs Arsenal at 26 January 2021**** West Brom vs Man City at 26 January 2021**** Burnley vs Aston Villa at 27 January 2021**** Chelsea vs Wolves at 27 January 2021**** Everton vs Leicester at 27 January 2021**** Man United vs Sheffield United at 27 January 2021**** Brighton vs Fulham at 27 January 2021**** Tottenham vs Liverpool at 28 January 2021**

###
Crystal Palace vs West Ham at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
3.12 |
3.14 |
-0.2 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.91 |
-4.7 |

West Ham |
2.41 |
2.35 |
1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
1.92 |
7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.09 |
-11.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
33% |
27% |
28% |
12% |

West Ham |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.04 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.2 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.68 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.92 |
3.17 |
2.33 |

2-3 goals |
2.59 |
5.60 |
2.30 |

4+ goals |
3.94 |
2.96 |
2.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.96 |
4.24 |
2.35 |

Un 1.5 |
3.92 |
3.17 |
2.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.67 |
2.16 |

Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
2.92 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
2.96 |
2.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.93 |
4.45 |
2.31 |

Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.88 |
2.93 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.68 |
4.63 |
2.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
6.27 |
2.12 |

####
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###
Newcastle vs Leeds at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
3.69 |
3.16 |
4.5 |

Draw |
3.82 |
3.89 |
-0.5 |

Leeds |
1.97 |
2.34 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.93 |
-8.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.08 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Man United |
A |
2 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
33% |
30% |
21% |
16% |

Leeds |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.76 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the guest team **Leeds ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.59 |
3.27 |
2.41 |

2-3 goals |
3.01 |
4.90 |
2.16 |

4+ goals |
3.10 |
3.33 |
2.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
4.17 |
2.32 |

Un 1.5 |
3.59 |
3.27 |
2.41 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.28 |
2.14 |

Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.76 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.33 |
2.65 |

Un 3.5 |
3.19 |
4.17 |
2.24 |

Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.86 |
2.91 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.65 |
5.01 |
2.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
6.27 |
2.08 |

####
Go to Top

###
Southampton vs Arsenal at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southampton** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southampton |
3.33 |
2.06 |
18.5 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.92 |
-3.9 |

Arsenal |
2.25 |
3.86 |
-18.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.03 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.97 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton (18.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** at home**.

Southampton,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southampton** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southampton |
21% |
26% |
38% |
14% |

Arsenal |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Southampton ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.27 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
1.65 |
5.53 |
4.69 |

4+ goals |
3.07 |
2.71 |
3.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
4.19 |
4.14 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.27 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.71 |
3.43 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
3.01 |
4.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.07 |
2.71 |
3.28 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.54 |
4.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.85 |
4.29 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.55 |
3.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
4.88 |
3.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.55 |
3.54 |

####
Go to Top

###
West Brom vs Man City at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Brom** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **26 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Brom |
15.20 |
6.33 |
9.2 |

Draw |
7.15 |
4.52 |
8.1 |

Man City |
1.19 |
1.61 |
-21.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.87 |
-13.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.15 |
7.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Brom, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.2 %, 8.1 %, 7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** at home**.

West Brom,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Man City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 62.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Brom** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Brom |
44% |
28% |
29% |
0% |

Man City |
13% |
30% |
28% |
29% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **0.41 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.13** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **2.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.73 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.88** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.52 |

1 |
6.06 |
2-3 |
1.87 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.08 |

3 |
3.45 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
-1000.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
6.31 |