2021 01 26 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente at 26 January 2021
Boavista vs Sp Lisbon at 27 January 2021


Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Braga and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Braga

1.42

1.69

-11.3

Draw

4.51

4.20

1.6

Gil Vicente

7.83

5.92

4.1

Over 2.5

1.79

2.16

-9.6

Under 2.5

2.05

1.86

5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Gil Vicente, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 4.1 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Braga in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance at home.
Sp Braga, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Jan

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Boavista

A

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Rio Ave

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Benfica

A

3

2

W

O

G


Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Jan

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Farense

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Jan

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Nov

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Nov

Nacional

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Braga and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Braga

18%

31%

26%

25%

Gil Vicente

46%

34%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 2.07 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 1.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Braga to score 1.59 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.79 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Sp Braga to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.51

1

4.93

2-3

1.95

2

3.95

4+

4.95

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.51

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

4.95

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.48

4.75

2-3 goals

1.56

4.88

6.56

4+ goals

1.67

4.04

6.52

Ov 1.5

1.59

4.61

6.55

Un 1.5

1.99

3.48

4.75

Ov 2.5

1.41

9.22

5.49

Un 2.5

2.02

2.88

6.33

Ov 3.5

1.67

4.04

6.52

Un 3.5

1.69

4.26

5.78

Goal-Goal

2.09

2.85

5.88

No Goal

1.46

6.80

5.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

6.72

4.48

NG+Un 2.5

1.63

6.80

5.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boavista vs Sp Lisbon at 27 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

6.26

9.80

-5.8

Draw

4.07

4.42

-1.9

Sp Lisbon

1.53

1.49

1.8

Over 2.5

1.85

2.43

-12.9

Under 2.5

1.96

1.70

7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Lisbon, Under 2.5 (1.8 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Jan

Tondela

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Sp Braga

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Nov

Farense

A

1

3

L

O

G


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 19 points, 90.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Jan

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Nacional

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

28 Nov

Moreirense

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Nov

Guimaraes

A

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

56%

35%

13%

-4%

Sp Lisbon

18%

30%

22%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 0.69 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 0.5 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.62 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

2.99

1

4.29

2-3

1.90

2

3.95

4+

7.14

3

3.68

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.99

5

33.33

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

-100.00

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.76

Ov 3.5

7.14

NoG

1.57

Un 3.5

1.16

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.23

3.28

1.98

2-3 goals

9.37

4.95

1.45

4+ goals

-7.37

7.37

1.00

Ov 1.5

17.97

5.32

1.32

Un 1.5

5.23

3.28

1.98

Ov 2.5

31.69

21.68

1.08

Un 2.5

6.68

2.83

2.01

Ov 3.5

-7.37

7.37

1.00

Un 3.5

7.17

4.13

1.62

Goal-Goal

18.10

2.90

1.67

No Goal

7.88

6.25

1.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

12.80

13.47

1.18

NG+Un 2.5

5.48

6.25

1.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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