2021 01 26 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alcorcon vs Albacete at 26 January 2021


Alcorcon vs Albacete at 26 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alcorcon

2.09

2.02

1.7

Draw

2.93

3.76

-7.5

Albacete

4.11

4.20

-0.5

Over 2.5

2.90

2.21

10.8

Under 2.5

1.39

1.83

-17.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alcorcon, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alcorcon in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance at home.
Alcorcon, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Fuenlabrada

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Las Palmas

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Dec

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Dec

Almeria

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Dec

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Nov

Girona

H

1

0

W

U

N


Albacete in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Mirandes

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Castellon

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Girona

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Tenerife

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Nov

Logrones

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alcorcon and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alcorcon

21%

34%

26%

18%

Albacete

38%

37%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.15 goals and Albacete to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.88 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.42 goals and Albacete to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Alcorcon to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.52

1

4.85

2-3

1.98

2

3.80

4+

4.81

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.52

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.81

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.64

3.74

2-3 goals

1.92

4.02

4.36

4+ goals

2.06

3.30

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.96

3.78

4.46

Un 1.5

2.18

3.64

3.74

Ov 2.5

1.70

7.16

3.70

Un 2.5

2.39

2.68

4.80

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.30

4.73

Un 3.5

2.01

3.87

4.11

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.61

4.61

No Goal

1.69

6.47

3.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.83

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

6.47

3.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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