Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Aris vs Larisa at 26 January 2021
OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis at 26 January 2021
Lamia vs Apollon at 27 January 2021
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos at 27 January 2021
AEK vs Giannina at 27 January 2021
Olympiakos vs PAOK at 27 January 2021
Panetolikos vs Atromitos at 28 January 2021
Aris vs Larisa at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Aris |
1.41 |
1.86 |
-17.2 |
|
Draw |
4.26 |
3.79 |
2.9 |
|
Larisa |
8.10 |
5.05 |
7.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.38 |
-4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.73 |
-1.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Larisa (2.9 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Aris in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Dec |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Aris |
28% |
29% |
12% |
30% |
|
Larisa |
49% |
34% |
15% |
3% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.79 goals and Larisa to score 0.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.44 goals and Larisa to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.14 |
0-1 |
2.64 |
|
1 |
4.18 |
2-3 |
2.27 |
|
2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
5.49 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
|
4 |
7.87 |
Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
|
6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
2.75 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |
|
NoG |
1.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.63 |
2.71 |
3.99 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.49 |
4.78 |
|
4+ goals |
1.26 |
7.00 |
16.55 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
5.02 |
6.04 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
2.71 |
3.99 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.26 |
16.23 |
6.81 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.43 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.26 |
7.00 |
16.55 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.44 |
4.38 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.96 |
2.94 |
6.74 |
|
No Goal |
1.80 |
4.55 |
4.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.43 |
10.23 |
4.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
4.55 |
3.54 |
Go to Top
OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis at 26 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 26 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
OFI Crete |
2.21 |
2.83 |
-9.9 |
|
Draw |
3.05 |
3.41 |
-3.5 |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
3.49 |
2.82 |
6.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.75 |
-8.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.57 |
3.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
OFI Crete in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Aris |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Dec |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
OFI Crete |
40% |
26% |
26% |
8% |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
37% |
33% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.3 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.03 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
6.80 |
0-1 |
2.67 |
|
1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.14 |
|
2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
6.45 |
|
3 |
4.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
|
4 |
9.52 |
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
|
5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
|
6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |
|
Gg |
2.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.45 |
|
NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.95 |
2.55 |
2.82 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.21 |
5.44 |
2.75 |
|
4+ goals |
3.44 |
2.58 |
3.10 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
4.27 |
2.83 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
2.55 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.03 |
2.59 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.35 |
2.73 |
2.99 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |
2.58 |
3.10 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.75 |
3.62 |
2.78 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.89 |
2.59 |
3.74 |
|
No Goal |
2.81 |
4.22 |
2.46 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
4.87 |
2.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
4.22 |
2.58 |
Go to Top
Lamia vs Apollon at 27 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lamia |
2.30 |
2.86 |
-8.5 |
|
Draw |
3.21 |
3.55 |
-3.0 |
|
Apollon |
3.12 |
2.72 |
4.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.43 |
0.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.70 |
-6.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lamia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Apollon in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lamia |
32% |
34% |
27% |
7% |
|
Apollon |
33% |
33% |
20% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.16 goals and Apollon to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.09 goals and Apollon to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.12 |
|
1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
|
6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
|
Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.09 |
3.09 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.46 |
4.33 |
2.76 |
|
4+ goals |
5.14 |
2.85 |
2.20 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.79 |
2.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.09 |
3.09 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
6.32 |
2.08 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.70 |
3.49 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.14 |
2.85 |
2.20 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.74 |
2.88 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.65 |
2.57 |
2.97 |
|
No Goal |
2.41 |
5.19 |
2.55 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
5.32 |
2.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.19 |
2.81 |
Go to Top
Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos at 27 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 27 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Volos NFC |
3.86 |
2.92 |
8.3 |
|
Draw |
2.90 |
3.45 |
-5.5 |
|
Panathinaikos |
2.15 |
2.72 |
-9.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.67 |
-3.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.60 |
-2.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC (8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Aris |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Volos NFC |
39% |
28% |
25% |
9% |
|
Panathinaikos |
35% |
33% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 0.85 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the guest team Panathinaikos to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.03 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.30 |
0-1 |
2.75 |
|
1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
6.13 |
|
3 |
4.74 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
|
4 |
9.09 |
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
|
5 |
22.73 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
|
6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.60 |
|
Gg |
2.53 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.13 |
|
NoG |
1.66 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.78 |
2.65 |
2.79 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.38 |
5.14 |