2021 01 26 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Olimpia Milano vs Olympiacos at 26 January 2021
Barcelona vs Zenit at 26 January 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Crvena Zvezda at 26 January 2021
Khimki vs Bayern Munich at 26 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 26 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Panathinaikos at 27 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs CSKA Moscow at 27 January 2021
Valencia vs Zalgiris at 27 January 2021
Villeurbanne vs Baskonia at 27 January 2021
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Anadolu Efes at 28 January 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Zenit at 28 January 2021
Khimki vs Fenerbahce at 28 January 2021
Olympiacos vs Barcelona at 28 January 2021
Baskonia vs Zalgiris at 29 January 2021
Alba Berlin vs Real Madrid at 29 January 2021
CSKA Moscow vs Bayern Munich at 29 January 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Villeurbanne at 29 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Valencia at 29 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Olimpia Milano vs Olympiacos at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.43

1.77

Olympiacos

3.31

2.29

Olimpia Milano HC

-5.5

-2.50

Olympiacos HC

+5.5

2.50

Point Line

156.5

158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

H

Bayern Munich

W

75

51

13

7

W 4

78

52

Jan 14

A

Alba Berlin

W

84

70

12

7

W 3

80

72

Jan 12

H

Valencia Basket

W

95

80

11

7

W 2

92

78

Jan 8

A

Real Madrid

W

80

76

10

7

W 1

81

74

Dec 30

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

91

9

7

L 2

87

85

Dec 23

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

79

84

9

6

L 1

79

84

Dec 17

A

Anadolu Efes

W

72

69

9

5

W 2

74

69

Dec 15

A

Fenerbahce

W

79

71

8

5

W 1

80

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 22

A

Zalgiris

L

79

81

11

10

L 1

81

80

Jan 19

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

101

93

11

9

W 1

99

97

Jan 15

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

63

69

10

9

L 1

62

72

Jan 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

89

87

10

8

W 3

90

86

Jan 8

H

Bayern Munich

W

84

82

9

8

W 2

87

84

Dec 29

A

BC Khimki

W

105

88

8

8

W 1

90

89

Dec 23

A

Fenerbahce

L

77

84

7

8

L 3

78

87

Dec 18

H

Real Madrid

L

82

86

7

7

L 2

83

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 81 points and the Olympiacos 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Olympiacos

FG%

0.56

0.56

ASS

15.80

17.00

DRB

21.10

20.60

AST-TO

1.40

1.32

TRB

27.80

27.70

FTM

13.60

15.40

BL

2.60

3.10

FTA

17.30

19.60

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.60

ST

6.90

6.70

TO-Fewer

11.30

12.90

Ftper

0.79

0.79

ORBper

0.32

0.34

ORB

6.70

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Barcelona vs Zenit at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Zenit for EuroLeague, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.25

1.31

Zenit

4.25

4.18

Barcelona HC

-8.5

-7.50

Zenit HC

+8.5

7.50

Point Line

150.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 22

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

72

60

15

6

W 4

73

64

Jan 15

A

CSKA Moscow

W

88

75

14

6

W 3

88

70

Jan 12

A

BC Khimki

W

87

75

13

6

W 2

75

76

Jan 7

H

Valencia Basket

W

89

72

12

6

W 1

86

70

Dec 30

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

90

11

6

L 3

80

92

Dec 22

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

86

11

5

L 2

81

86

Dec 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

67

68

11

4

L 1

68

68

Dec 16

H

BC Khimki

W

87

74

11

3

W 2

75

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

H

Anadolu Efes

W

85

78

13

6

W 2

87

78

Jan 15

H

Zalgiris

W

77

65

12

6

W 1

79

65

Jan 13

A

Bayern Munich

L

80

82

11

6

L 1

83

84

Jan 7

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

77

11

5

W 3

84

76

Dec 29

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

78

72

10

5

W 2

79

71

Dec 22

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

98

69

9

5

W 1

99

74

Dec 18

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

83

8

5

L 1

65

78

Dec 16

H

Bayern Munich

W

79

75

8

4

W 1

82

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Zenit in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 77 points and the Zenit 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Zenit

FG%

0.49

0.52

ASS

16.70

14.80

DRB

18.30

18.50

AST-TO

1.38

1.29

TRB

26.90

26.10

FTM

13.80

12.90

BL

2.50

2.20

FTA

17.50

16.70

PF-Fewer

20.60

21.00

ST

6.80

6.70

TO-Fewer

12.10

11.50

Ftper

0.79

0.77

ORBper

0.47

0.41

ORB

8.60

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Crvena Zvezda at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Crvena Zvezda for EuroLeague, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.16

1.47

Crvena Zvezda

5.5

3.12

Anadolu Efes HC

-10.5

-5.50

Crvena Zvezda HC

+10.5

5.50

Point Line

155.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

78

85

11

10

L 1

84

87

Jan 14

H

BC Khimki

W

99

60

11

9

W 3

85

60

Jan 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

84

76

10

9

W 2

80

78

Jan 8

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

102

80

9

9

W 1

100

83

Dec 29

H

Real Madrid

L

65

73

8

9

L 1

66

71

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

93

77

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8

L 3

70

70

Dec 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

65

100

7

7

L 2

65

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 22

H

FC Barcelona

L

60

72

7

14

L 1

65

70

Jan 18

A

Real Madrid

W

79

77

7

13

W 1

80

74

Jan 15

A

Valencia Basket

L

71

91

6

13

L 2

69

88

Jan 7

H

Fenerbahce

L

71

73

6

12

L 1

72

76

Dec 30

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

71

6

11

W 1

70

70

Dec 22

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

69

98

5

11

L 1

74

100

Dec 18

H

Valencia Basket

W

76

73

5

10

W 1

74

71

Dec 15

H

Alba Berlin

L

84

90

4

10

L 5

80

92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Crvena Zvezda in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 78 points and the Crvena Zvezda 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Crvena Zvezda

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

17.50

14.20

DRB

20.00

19.40

AST-TO

1.64

1.15

TRB

27.90

27.60

FTM

13.30

15.00

BL

3.10

2.10

FTA

17.10

18.00

PF-Fewer

17.30

22.20

ST

6.80

6.70

TO-Fewer

10.70

12.40

Ftper

0.78

0.83

ORBper

0.40

0.42

ORB

7.90

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Bayern Munich at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Bayern Munich for EuroLeague, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

3.35

2.28

Bayern Munich

1.35

1.78

Khimki HC

+7.5

2.50

Bayern Munich HC

-7.5

-2.50

Point Line

165.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

78

94

2

19

L 13

74

93

Jan 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

60

99

2

18

L 12

62

99

Jan 12

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

87

2

17

L 11

81

85

Jan 8

A

Zalgiris

L

75

102

2

16

L 10

77

101

Dec 29

H

Olympiacos

L

88

105

2

15

L 9

86

103

Dec 23

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

88

2

14

L 8

80

86

Dec 18

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

84

90

2

13

L 7

82

94

Dec 16

A

FC Barcelona

L

74

87

2

12

L 6

80

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 21

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

51

75

12

9

L 2

52

72

Jan 15

H

Real Madrid

L

76

81

12

8

L 1

77

78

Jan 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

80

12

7

W 1

88

82

Jan 8

A

Olympiacos

L

82

84

11

7

L 1

81

83

Dec 30

H

FC Barcelona

W

90

77

11

6

W 1

97

75

Dec 23

A

Zalgiris

L

73

74

10

6

L 1

75

74

Dec 18

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

77

66

10

5

W 1

77

66

Dec 16

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

79

9

5

L 1

81

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Bayern Munich in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 78 points and the Bayern Munich 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Bayern Munich

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

19.00

16.50

DRB

21.00

21.60

AST-TO

1.36

1.24

TRB

28.30

28.50

FTM

13.00

15.90

BL

3.70

1.90

FTA

16.80

19.70

PF-Fewer

22.00

20.60

ST

5.80

6.00

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.30

Ftper

0.77

0.80

ORBper

0.35

0.32

ORB

7.30

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 26 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 26 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

1.5

2.59

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.72

1.63

Fenerbahce HC

-4.5

4.00

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+4.5

-4.00

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 22

A

CSKA Moscow

W

89

83

11

10

W 6

89

78

Jan 15

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

100

74

10

10

W 5

94

73

Jan 12

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

96

76

9

10

W 4

96

76

Jan 7

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W