# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** For Sittard vs VVV Venlo at 30 January 2021**** Vitesse vs Waalwijk at 30 January 2021**** Utrecht vs Zwolle at 30 January 2021**** Heracles vs Groningen at 30 January 2021**** Willem II vs FC Emmen at 31 January 2021**** Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven at 31 January 2021**** Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam at 31 January 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax at 31 January 2021**** Twente vs Heerenveen at 31 January 2021**

###
For Sittard vs VVV Venlo at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
2.05 |
2.43 |
-7.6 |

Draw |
3.69 |
3.28 |
3.4 |

VVV Venlo |
3.31 |
3.52 |
-1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.11 |
-14.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.33 |
1.90 |
9.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Twente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
20% |
41% |
19% |
20% |

VVV Venlo |
22% |
51% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.72 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.39 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.62 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
2.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
5.33 |
2.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.82 |
2.47 |
4.16 |

4+ goals |
1.79 |
4.78 |
4.28 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
2.92 |
4.20 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
5.33 |
2.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
9.29 |
3.25 |

Un 2.5 |
3.95 |
2.07 |
3.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.78 |
4.28 |

Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
2.98 |
3.32 |

Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.38 |
4.87 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
8.47 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.04 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
8.47 |
2.28 |

####
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###
Vitesse vs Waalwijk at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vitesse** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vitesse |
1.34 |
1.45 |
-5.7 |

Draw |
5.11 |
5.38 |
-1.0 |

Waalwijk |
8.21 |
8.13 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.66 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.53 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk (0.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** at home**.

Vitesse,** at home**, had 8 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 92.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vitesse** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vitesse |
11% |
13% |
39% |
37% |

Waalwijk |
51% |
23% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **2.42 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.05** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **1.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **2.02 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **1.19** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
6.71 |

1 |
10.99 |
2-3 |
1.79 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.41 |

3 |
3.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
6.71 |

5 |
10.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |

Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.29 |
2.57 |
5.73 |

2-3 goals |
1.16 |
19.24 |
11.16 |

4+ goals |
1.97 |
2.99 |
6.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
6.70 |
8.86 |

Un 1.5 |
2.29 |
2.57 |
5.73 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
6.16 |
7.84 |

Un 2.5 |
1.50 |
4.55 |
8.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
2.99 |
6.37 |

Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
8.13 |
9.30 |

Goal-Goal |
1.81 |
3.41 |
6.46 |

No Goal |
1.25 |
9.78 |
10.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.12 |
6.03 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.39 |
9.78 |
8.16 |

####
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###
Utrecht vs Zwolle at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Utrecht** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Utrecht |
1.60 |
1.99 |
-12.2 |

Draw |
4.02 |
4.20 |
-1.1 |

Zwolle |
5.46 |
3.88 |
7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.75 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.33 |
-2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle (7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** at home**.

Utrecht,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Utrecht** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Utrecht |
22% |
21% |
33% |
25% |

Zwolle |
30% |
38% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **2 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Utrecht** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Utrecht ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.76 |

1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.55 |
4+ |
3.29 |

3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |

4 |
5.43 |
Un 1.5 |
4.76 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.29 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |

2-3 goals |
1.63 |
6.09 |
4.47 |

4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.23 |
4.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.55 |
4.49 |

Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.07 |
4.26 |

Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.97 |
3.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.23 |
4.54 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.81 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.04 |
3.16 |
5.14 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
6.94 |
2.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
5.00 |
4.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.94 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Heracles vs Groningen at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heracles** and **Groningen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heracles |
2.31 |
2.26 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.98 |
-5.1 |

Groningen |
3.04 |
3.25 |
-2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.65 |
12.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.54 |
-17.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heracles, Over 2.5 (1 %, 12.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** at home**.

Heracles,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** as a guest**.

Groningen,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heracles** and the red line for guest team, **Groningen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heracles |
20% |
29% |
24% |
28% |

Groningen |
26% |
32% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Groningen** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.92** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
19.61 |
0-1 |
5.26 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
2.82 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.05 |
Un 1.5 |
5.26 |

5 |
9.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |

6+ |
20.83 |
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |

Gg |
1.68 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |

NoG |
2.47 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |