# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 January 2021**** Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 January 2021**** Northampton vs Wigan at 30 January 2021**** Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 January 2021**** Hull vs Swindon at 30 January 2021**** Crewe vs Ipswich at 30 January 2021**** Charlton vs Portsmouth at 30 January 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Rochdale at 30 January 2021**** Blackpool vs Burton at 30 January 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 30 January 2021**** Plymouth vs Accrington at 30 January 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Peterboro at 30 January 2021**

###
Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Gillingham** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.59 |
2.23 |
-18.1 |

Draw |
3.86 |
3.72 |
1.0 |

Gillingham |
5.88 |
3.53 |
11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.10 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.91 |
-5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Gillingham, Over 2.5 (1 %, 11.3 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Gillingham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Gillingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
22% |
34% |
25% |
18% |

Gillingham |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.68 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.38 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.05 |
3.56 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.30 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.78 |
3.61 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.79 |
3.04 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.65 |
4.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.30 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.88 |
3.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.67 |
3.88 |

No Goal |
1.86 |
6.44 |
3.24 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.61 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.44 |
3.18 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Fleetwood Town** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
1.97 |
2.27 |
-6.7 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.83 |
-4.4 |

Fleetwood Town |
4.05 |
3.37 |
5.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.98 |
3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.02 |
-8.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fleetwood Town, Over 2.5 (5 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Burton |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Fleetwood Town** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fleetwood Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Fleetwood Town,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Fleetwood Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
24% |
30% |
27% |
19% |

Fleetwood Town |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Oxford ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Fleetwood Town** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.39 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.57 |
3.49 |

4+ goals |
2.39 |
3.24 |
3.66 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.01 |
3.55 |

Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.39 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.37 |
3.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.73 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.24 |
3.66 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.08 |
3.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.81 |
3.99 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
6.35 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.27 |
3.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.35 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Northampton vs Wigan at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Wigan** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
2.37 |
2.39 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.80 |
-3.4 |

Wigan |
2.93 |
3.13 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.96 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.04 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** as a guest**.

Wigan,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Burton |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Wigan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
26% |
29% |
27% |
18% |

Wigan |
29% |
37% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.41 |
2.68 |

2-3 goals |
2.15 |
4.55 |
3.18 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.18 |
3.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.96 |
3.32 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.41 |
2.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.20 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.72 |
3.28 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.18 |
3.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
4.08 |
2.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
2.80 |
3.89 |

No Goal |
2.20 |
6.36 |
2.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.15 |
3.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.36 |
2.57 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lincoln** and **Doncaster** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lincoln |
2.09 |
2.46 |
-7.2 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.65 |
-2.0 |

Doncaster |
3.47 |
3.12 |
3.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.10 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.91 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Doncaster (3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** at home**.

Lincoln,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Doncaster** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Doncaster** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance** as a guest**.

Doncaster,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Burton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lincoln** and the red line for guest team, **Doncaster. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lincoln |
25% |
35% |
24% |
16% |

Doncaster |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.61 |
2.93 |