# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lyon vs Bordeaux at 29 January 2021**** Marseille vs Rennes at 30 January 2021**** Montpellier vs Lens at 30 January 2021**** Strasbourg vs Reims at 31 January 2021**** Nice vs St Etienne at 31 January 2021**** Nantes vs Monaco at 31 January 2021**** Lille vs Dijon at 31 January 2021**** Brest vs Metz at 31 January 2021**** Angers vs Nimes at 31 January 2021**** Lorient vs Paris SG at 31 January 2021**

###
Lyon vs Bordeaux at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lyon** and **Bordeaux** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lyon |
1.42 |
1.94 |
-18.9 |

Draw |
4.89 |
3.76 |
6.1 |

Bordeaux |
7.45 |
4.59 |
8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.66 |
-23.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.60 |
19.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 8.4 %, 19 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** at home**.

Lyon,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Jan |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Lens |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Nice |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** as a guest**.

Bordeaux,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Angers |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lyon** and the red line for guest team, **Bordeaux. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lyon |
24% |
34% |
27% |
15% |

Bordeaux |
50% |
29% |
12% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lyon** to score **2.25 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.91** goals in the game and the home team **Lyon ** to win by **1.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lyon** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and the home team **Lyon ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.26 |
0-1 |
2.77 |

1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
6.21 |

3 |
4.65 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |

4 |
9.43 |
Un 1.5 |
2.77 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.66 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.61 |

Gg |
2.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.21 |

NoG |
1.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
2.98 |
5.16 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
4.82 |
5.07 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.50 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.40 |
4.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
2.98 |
5.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.17 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.83 |
6.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.50 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
1.85 |
3.81 |
5.11 |

Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.62 |
3.96 |

No Goal |
1.64 |
5.12 |
5.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.11 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
5.12 |
5.24 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Rennes at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Rennes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
2.63 |
2.33 |
4.9 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.73 |
-4.0 |

Rennes |
2.82 |
3.31 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.41 |
-1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.71 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Marseille (4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Angers |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** as a guest**.

Rennes,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Brest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Nice |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Rennes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
29% |
29% |
32% |
10% |

Rennes |
37% |
36% |
13% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.26 |
0-1 |
3.11 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.11 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.95 |
2.98 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
1.81 |
4.61 |
4.32 |

4+ goals |
3.85 |
3.49 |
2.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
4.24 |
3.42 |

Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
2.98 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
7.83 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.72 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |
3.49 |
2.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.79 |
3.72 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.78 |
3.68 |

No Goal |
2.09 |
5.14 |
3.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.38 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.14 |
3.37 |

####
Go to Top

###
Montpellier vs Lens at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Montpellier** and **Lens** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Montpellier |
2.75 |
2.30 |
7.1 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.83 |
-4.9 |

Lens |
2.65 |
3.28 |
-7.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.35 |
-7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.74 |
2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Montpellier, Under 2.5 (7.1 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Montpellier** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Montpellier** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance** at home**.

Montpellier,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Montpellier scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Lille |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** as a guest**.

Lens,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Nice |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Monaco |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Montpellier** and the red line for guest team, **Lens. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Montpellier |
29% |
26% |
35% |
10% |

Lens |
37% |
36% |
12% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Montpellier** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Lens** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.18 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
8.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.20 |
2.88 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
1.72 |
5.17 |
4.47 |

4+ goals |
4.06 |
3.35 |
2.20 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
4.49 |
3.47 |

Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
2.88 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.49 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.80 |
4.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.06 |
3.35 |
2.20 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.95 |
3.72 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.92 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
5.09 |
3.00 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.14 |
2.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.09 |
3.34 |

####
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###
Strasbourg vs Reims at 31 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Strasbourg** and **Reims** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **31 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Strasbourg |
2.09 |
2.16 |
-1.6 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.77 |
-4.5 |

Reims |
3.90 |
3.66 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.32 |
-1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.76 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reims (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -9.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Strasbourg** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Strasbourg** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance** at home**.

Strasbourg,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Angers |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Metz |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** as a guest**.

Reims,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Bordeaux |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Brest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Strasbourg** and the red line for guest team, **Reims. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Strasbourg |
26% |
28% |
34% |
12% |

Reims |
38% |
36% |
15% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Reims** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Strasbourg ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Strasbourg** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Reims** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Strasbourg ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.18 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |