2021 01 29 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Man City vs Sheffield United at 30 January 2021
Everton vs Newcastle at 30 January 2021
Crystal Palace vs Wolves at 30 January 2021
Arsenal vs Man United at 30 January 2021
Southampton vs Aston Villa at 30 January 2021
West Brom vs Fulham at 30 January 2021
Leicester vs Leeds at 31 January 2021
Chelsea vs Burnley at 31 January 2021
West Ham vs Liverpool at 31 January 2021
Brighton vs Tottenham at 31 January 2021


Man City vs Sheffield United at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.14

1.40

-16.3

Draw

8.83

5.71

6.2

Sheffield United

21.09

9.17

6.2

Over 2.5

1.47

1.83

-13.4

Under 2.5

2.65

2.21

7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sheffield United, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 6.2 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Aston Villa

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Crystal Palace

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Jan

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Chelsea

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

West Brom

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sheffield United in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield United, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Man United

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Tottenham

H

1

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Newcastle

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

0

2

L

U

N

29 Dec

Burnley

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

9%

31%

19%

41%

Sheffield United

61%

20%

9%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.89 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.21 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.91 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 1.25 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

3.75

1

4.78

2-3

1.95

2

5.38

4+

4.55

3

3.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.75

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

27.03

Un 2.5

2.21

Gg

2.87

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.54

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.41

4.60

14.05

2-3 goals

1.27

8.13

11.38

4+ goals

1.82

4.07

4.89

Ov 1.5

1.39

6.26

8.13

Un 1.5

1.41

4.60

14.05

Ov 2.5

1.33

10.11

6.74

Un 2.5

1.49

3.74

16.18

Ov 3.5

1.82

4.07

4.89

Un 3.5

1.31

6.44

12.17

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.98

4.78

No Goal

1.17

11.21

18.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

5.30

3.92

NG+Un 2.5

1.28

11.21

13.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Everton vs Newcastle at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

1.58

1.78

-7.1

Draw

4.01

4.17

-1.0

Newcastle

6.25

5.05

3.8

Over 2.5

1.96

1.92

1.1

Under 2.5

1.89

2.08

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Jan

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Chelsea

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G


Newcastle in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance as a guest.
Newcastle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Aston Villa

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Jan

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Jan

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Dec

Liverpool

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Man City

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

17%

30%

23%

29%

Newcastle

39%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.82 goals and Newcastle to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.64 goals and Newcastle to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.02

1

5.49

2-3

2.02

2

4.33

4+

3.88

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.02

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

3.72

3.95

2-3 goals

1.70

4.45

5.37

4+ goals

1.69

4.16

6.00

Ov 1.5

1.69

4.35

5.57

Un 1.5

2.09

3.72

3.95

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.40

4.87

Un 2.5

2.27

2.70

5.27

Ov 3.5

1.69

4.16

6.00

Un 3.5

1.81

4.17

4.79

Goal-Goal

2.11

2.92

5.43

No Goal

1.53

7.40

4.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

6.35

4.24

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

7.40

4.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Crystal Palace vs Wolves at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crystal Palace

2.94

2.44

7.0

Draw

3.13

3.64

-4.5

Wolves

2.62

3.16

-6.5

Over 2.5

2.47

2.13

6.5

Under 2.5

1.57

1.88

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (7 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crystal Palace in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

West Ham

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Man City

A

0

4

L

O

N

14 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Sheffield United

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Dec

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Aston Villa

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Liverpool

H

0

7

L

O

N

16 Dec

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G


Wolves in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

West Brom

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Brighton

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Dec

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Tottenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Burnley

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Chelsea

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crystal Palace

24%

39%

18%

18%

Wolves

32%

35%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.02 goals and Wolves to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.31 goals and Wolves to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.48

1

4.76

2-3

2.09

2

4.08

4+

4.22

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.48

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.73

3.38

2-3 goals

2.61

3.46

3.04

4+ goals

2.35

3.89

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.59

3.08

Un 1.5

2.30

3.73

3.38

Ov 2.5

2.09

7.70

2.55

Un 2.5

2.89

2.47

4.00

Ov 3.5

2.35

3.89

3.16

Un 3.5

2.48

3.56

3.16

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.60

3.39

No Goal

1.99

6.29

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

6.23

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.29

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Arsenal vs Man United at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Arsenal and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Arsenal

2.88

2.92

-0.5

Draw

3.42

3.86

-3.3

Man United

2.52

2.51

0.2

Over 2.5

1.83

1.92

-2.6

Under 2.5

2.03

2.08

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Man United (0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Arsenal in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance at home.
Arsenal, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Southampton

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Jan

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Jan

Crystal Palace

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

West Brom

A

4

0

W

O

N

29 Dec

Brighton

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Chelsea

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Everton

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Southampton

H

1

1

D

U

G


Man United in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 26 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Liverpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Jan

Burnley

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Jan

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Wolves

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Leicester

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Leeds

H

6

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Arsenal and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Arsenal

31%

29%

23%

17%

Man United

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.26 goals and Man United to score 1.39 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.25 goals and Man United to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.94

1

5.71

2-3

2.13

2

4.42

4+

3.61

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.94

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.61

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-