# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Santa Clara vs Belenenses at 01 February 2021**** Moreirense vs Sp Braga at 01 February 2021**** Porto vs Rio Ave at 01 February 2021**** Tondela vs Farense at 30 January 2021**** Portimonense vs Boavista at 30 January 2021**** Nacional vs Famalicao at 30 January 2021**** Guimaraes vs Maritimo at 31 January 2021**

###
Santa Clara vs Belenenses at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Santa Clara** and **Belenenses** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Santa Clara |
2.24 |
2.27 |
-0.6 |

Draw |
3.07 |
3.66 |
-5.3 |

Belenenses |
3.48 |
3.50 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.20 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.83 |
-9.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** at home**.

Santa Clara,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** as a guest**.

Belenenses,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Santa Clara** and the red line for guest team, **Belenenses. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Santa Clara |
25% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Belenenses |
34% |
39% |
16% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **Santa Clara ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.59 |
3.47 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.12 |
3.70 |
3.88 |

4+ goals |
2.24 |
3.83 |
3.42 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.74 |
3.72 |

Un 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.47 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.83 |
3.07 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.53 |
3.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.83 |
3.42 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.61 |
3.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.63 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.00 |
5.90 |
3.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.28 |
3.06 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.90 |
3.02 |

####
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###
Moreirense vs Sp Braga at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Moreirense** and **Sp Braga** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Moreirense |
5.63 |
4.07 |
6.8 |

Draw |
4.04 |
3.82 |
1.4 |

Sp Braga |
1.57 |
2.03 |
-14.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.41 |
-13.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.71 |
8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Moreirense, Draw, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 1.4 %, 8.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** at home**.

Moreirense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Porto |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Sp Braga** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Braga** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Braga,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Boavista |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Moreirense** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Braga. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Moreirense |
40% |
38% |
16% |
6% |

Sp Braga |
30% |
20% |
36% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **0.75 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **1.13** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Sp Braga** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Braga ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
3.16 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.81 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
8.26 |
Un 1.5 |
3.16 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.40 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.81 |

NoG |
1.71 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
2.59 |
4.00 |

2-3 goals |
5.28 |
6.83 |
1.51 |

4+ goals |
5.06 |
2.69 |
2.32 |

Ov 1.5 |
5.22 |
4.92 |
1.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
2.59 |
4.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.95 |
6.50 |
1.55 |

Un 2.5 |
3.60 |
2.96 |
2.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.06 |
2.69 |
2.32 |

Un 3.5 |
3.91 |
4.20 |
1.98 |

Goal-Goal |
6.40 |
2.99 |
1.96 |

No Goal |
3.23 |
4.79 |
2.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
5.25 |
5.33 |
1.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
4.79 |
2.26 |

####
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###
Porto vs Rio Ave at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Porto** and **Rio Ave** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Porto |
1.33 |
1.89 |
-22.3 |

Draw |
4.97 |
3.86 |
5.8 |

Rio Ave |
8.59 |
4.74 |
9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.49 |
-19.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.67 |
13.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Rio Ave, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 9.5 %, 13.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** at home**.

Porto,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Nov |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** as a guest**.

Rio Ave,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Porto** and the red line for guest team, **Rio Ave. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Porto |
24% |
33% |
24% |
19% |

Rio Ave |
51% |
24% |
22% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Porto** to score **2.23 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Porto ** to win by **1.66** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Porto** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and the home team **Porto ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
2.87 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.99 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |

4 |
9.17 |
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.67 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.99 |

NoG |
1.59 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.06 |
2.85 |
6.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
6.15 |
3.65 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
2.88 |
7.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.77 |
4.24 |

Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
2.85 |
6.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.93 |
3.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.98 |
5.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
2.88 |
7.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.15 |
4.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.60 |
2.73 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
5.14 |
5.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.09 |
3.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.14 |
4.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Tondela vs Farense at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tondela** and **Farense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tondela |
2.62 |
2.00 |
11.8 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.79 |
-5.3 |

Farense |
2.71 |
4.24 |
-13.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.27 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.79 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela (11.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **remains the same .**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** at home**.

Tondela,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Porto |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Nov |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** as a guest**.

Farense,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

25 Jan |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tondela** and the red line for guest team, **Farense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tondela |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Farense |
41% |
35% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Farense** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Farense** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Tondela ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.24 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.29 |