# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sabadell vs Logrones at 01 February 2021**** Leganes vs Lugo at 01 February 2021**** Zaragoza vs Ponferradina at 29 January 2021**** Oviedo vs Albacete at 30 January 2021**** Alcorcon vs Malaga at 30 January 2021**** Almeria vs Castellon at 30 January 2021**** Mallorca vs Girona at 30 January 2021**** Espanol vs Vallecano at 31 January 2021**** Tenerife vs Fuenlabrada at 31 January 2021**** Sp Gijon vs Cartagena at 31 January 2021**** Mirandes vs Las Palmas at 31 January 2021**

###
Sabadell vs Logrones at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sabadell** and **Logrones** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sabadell |
2.38 |
2.28 |
1.8 |

Draw |
2.82 |
3.56 |
-7.4 |

Logrones |
3.43 |
3.55 |
-1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.38 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
-8.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sabadell, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** at home**.

Sabadell,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Logrones** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Logrones** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance** as a guest**.

Logrones,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sabadell** and the red line for guest team, **Logrones. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sabadell |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Logrones |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Logrones** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Logrones** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.69 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.39 |
3.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.86 |
3.64 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.17 |
3.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.64 |
3.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.39 |
3.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.02 |
3.05 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.62 |
4.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.17 |
3.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.67 |
3.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.53 |
4.09 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
5.67 |
3.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.82 |
2.98 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.67 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Leganes vs Lugo at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leganes** and **Lugo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leganes |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.79 |
-3.8 |

Lugo |
4.87 |
4.29 |
2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.19 |
8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.84 |
-14.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lugo, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 8.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leganes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leganes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance** at home**.

Leganes,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** as a guest**.

Lugo,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Tenerife |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leganes** and the red line for guest team, **Lugo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leganes |
20% |
34% |
26% |
19% |

Lugo |
38% |
36% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leganes** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.98** goals in the game and the home team **Leganes ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leganes** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and the home team **Leganes ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.80 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.06 |
4.42 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.39 |
4.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.35 |
3.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.69 |
4.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.39 |
4.77 |

Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.91 |
4.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.64 |
4.62 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.56 |
4.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.95 |
3.45 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.56 |
3.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Zaragoza vs Ponferradina at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zaragoza** and **Ponferradina** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zaragoza |
2.11 |
2.25 |
-2.9 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.58 |
-5.0 |

Ponferradina |
3.86 |
3.62 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.35 |
3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.74 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** at home**.

Zaragoza,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** as a guest**.

Ponferradina,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zaragoza** and the red line for guest team, **Ponferradina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zaragoza |
25% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Ponferradina |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and the home team **Zaragoza ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zaragoza** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Zaragoza ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.25 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.87 |
3.72 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.79 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
7.05 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.63 |
4.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.68 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.53 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
5.77 |
3.22 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.83 |
3.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.77 |
3.16 |

####
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###
Oviedo vs Albacete at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oviedo** and **Albacete** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oviedo |
1.82 |
1.89 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.89 |
-4.5 |

Albacete |
4.74 |
4.67 |
0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.15 |
7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.87 |
-12.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Albacete, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oviedo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oviedo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance** at home**.

Oviedo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Tenerife |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Albacete** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Albacete** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance** as a guest**.

Albacete,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Alcorcon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oviedo** and the red line for guest team, **Albacete. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oviedo |
18% |
34% |
27% |
21% |

Albacete |
40% |
36% |
18% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and the home team **Oviedo ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Oviedo ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.03 |
3.75 |