Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 January 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 January 2021
Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 January 2021
Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 January 2021
RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen at 30 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim at 30 January 2021
Dortmund vs Augsburg at 30 January 2021
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg at 31 January 2021
FC Koln vs Bielefeld at 31 January 2021
Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stuttgart |
1.75 |
1.96 |
-6.1 |
|
Draw |
4.11 |
4.15 |
-0.2 |
|
Mainz |
4.54 |
4.00 |
3.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.76 |
-9.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.31 |
3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz, Under 2.5 (3 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Dortmund |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Mainz in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stuttgart |
20% |
32% |
14% |
35% |
|
Mainz |
36% |
30% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 2.09 goals and Mainz to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.64 goals and Mainz to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.25 |
|
2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
3.23 |
|
3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.05 |
4.62 |
3.39 |
|
4+ goals |
1.76 |
4.19 |
5.17 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
4.44 |
3.95 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.68 |
3.76 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.57 |
4.36 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.19 |
5.17 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.11 |
3.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
3.01 |
4.10 |
|
No Goal |
1.68 |
6.78 |
3.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.62 |
3.33 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.78 |
3.39 |
Go to Top
Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
1.80 |
2.00 |
-5.6 |
|
Draw |
3.90 |
4.10 |
-1.3 |
|
Hertha |
4.33 |
3.91 |
2.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.81 |
-5.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.23 |
0.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Hertha in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
20% |
32% |
18% |
30% |
|
Hertha |
36% |
30% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.89 goals and Hertha to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.59 goals and Hertha to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.18 |
|
2 |
4.95 |
4+ |
3.38 |
|
3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
|
6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.77 |
3.50 |
|
4+ goals |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.48 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.36 |
3.83 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
7.17 |
3.52 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.67 |
4.53 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.48 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
4.19 |
3.71 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.46 |
2.96 |
3.91 |
|
No Goal |
1.68 |
6.78 |
3.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.40 |
3.18 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.78 |
3.56 |
Go to Top
Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Werder Bremen |
1.91 |
1.55 |
12.2 |
|
Draw |
3.57 |
4.76 |
-7.0 |
|
Schalke 04 |
4.13 |
6.90 |
-9.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.65 |
7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.54 |
-12.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (12.2 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Freiburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Werder Bremen |
12% |
25% |
25% |
38% |
|
Schalke 04 |
36% |
42% |
16% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.63 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.9 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
5.56 |
|
1 |
7.25 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
3.17 |
|
3 |
3.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |
|
4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
5.56 |
|
5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
|
Gg |
1.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.17 |
|
NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.00 |
4.29 |
3.75 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.50 |
4.89 |
7.88 |
|
4+ goals |
1.43 |
4.92 |
10.16 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.62 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.29 |
3.75 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.30 |
9.47 |
7.87 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.71 |
5.95 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.43 |
4.92 |
10.16 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.60 |
4.72 |
6.11 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.73 |
3.37 |
8.04 |
|
No Goal |
1.36 |
10.38 |
5.97 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
7.19 |
6.57 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.59 |
10.38 |
4.39 |
Go to Top
Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Union Berlin |
3.26 |
1.93 |
21.1 |
|
Draw |
3.41 |
4.17 |
-5.3 |
|
M’gladbach |
2.25 |
4.13 |
-20.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.74 |
1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.35 |
-5.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (21.1 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Union Berlin in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
M’gladbach in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Union Berlin |
19% |
31% |
13% |
36% |
|
M’gladbach |
36% |
32% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.17 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team M’gladbach to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.67 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.18 |
|
1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.25 |
|
2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
3.16 |
|
3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |
|
5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.16 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |