# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 January 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 January 2021**** Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 January 2021**** Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 January 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen at 30 January 2021**** Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim at 30 January 2021**** Dortmund vs Augsburg at 30 January 2021**** Wolfsburg vs Freiburg at 31 January 2021**** FC Koln vs Bielefeld at 31 January 2021**

###
Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stuttgart** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stuttgart |
1.75 |
1.96 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
4.11 |
4.15 |
-0.2 |

Mainz |
4.54 |
4.00 |
3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.76 |
-9.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.31 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mainz, Under 2.5 (3 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** at home**.

Stuttgart,** at home**, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Dortmund |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stuttgart** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stuttgart |
20% |
32% |
14% |
35% |

Mainz |
36% |
30% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **2.09 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.12** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
3.23 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |

6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.05 |
4.62 |
3.39 |

4+ goals |
1.76 |
4.19 |
5.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.92 |
4.44 |
3.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
7.68 |
3.76 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.57 |
4.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.19 |
5.17 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.11 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
3.01 |
4.10 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.78 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.62 |
3.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.78 |
3.39 |

####
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###
Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **Hertha** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
1.80 |
2.00 |
-5.6 |

Draw |
3.90 |
4.10 |
-1.3 |

Hertha |
4.33 |
3.91 |
2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.81 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.23 |
0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hertha, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** as a guest**.

Hertha,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **Hertha. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
20% |
32% |
18% |
30% |

Hertha |
36% |
30% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.89 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the home team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.95 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
4.77 |
3.50 |

4+ goals |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.36 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.42 |
4.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
7.17 |
3.52 |

Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.67 |
4.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
4.19 |
3.71 |

Goal-Goal |
2.46 |
2.96 |
3.91 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.78 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.40 |
3.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.78 |
3.56 |

####
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###
Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Werder Bremen** and **Schalke 04** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Werder Bremen |
1.91 |
1.55 |
12.2 |

Draw |
3.57 |
4.76 |
-7.0 |

Schalke 04 |
4.13 |
6.90 |
-9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.65 |
7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.54 |
-12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (12.2 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Werder Bremen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Werder Bremen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance** at home**.

Werder Bremen,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** as a guest**.

Schalke 04,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Freiburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Werder Bremen** and the red line for guest team, **Schalke 04. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Werder Bremen |
12% |
25% |
25% |
38% |

Schalke 04 |
36% |
42% |
16% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Werder Bremen ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Werder Bremen** to score **1.9 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the home team **Werder Bremen ** to win by **0.98** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
5.56 |

1 |
7.25 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.69 |
4+ |
3.17 |

3 |
3.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.67 |
Un 1.5 |
5.56 |

5 |
12.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |

Gg |
1.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.17 |

NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.00 |
4.29 |
3.75 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
4.89 |
7.88 |

4+ goals |
1.43 |
4.92 |
10.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.29 |
3.75 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.30 |
9.47 |
7.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.71 |
5.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.43 |
4.92 |
10.16 |

Un 3.5 |
1.60 |
4.72 |
6.11 |

Goal-Goal |
1.73 |
3.37 |
8.04 |

No Goal |
1.36 |
10.38 |
5.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
7.19 |
6.57 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.59 |
10.38 |
4.39 |

####
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###
Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Union Berlin** and **M’gladbach** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Union Berlin |
3.26 |
1.93 |
21.1 |

Draw |
3.41 |
4.17 |
-5.3 |

M’gladbach |
2.25 |
4.13 |
-20.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.74 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.35 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (21.1 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** at home**.

Union Berlin,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** as a guest**.

M’gladbach,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Union Berlin** and the red line for guest team, **M’gladbach. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Union Berlin |
19% |
31% |
13% |
36% |

M’gladbach |
36% |
32% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **1.17 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the guest team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Union Berlin** to score **1.67 ** goals and **M’gladbach** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Union Berlin ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
3.16 |

3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.16 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |