2021 01 29 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 January 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 January 2021
Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 January 2021
Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 January 2021
RB Leipzig vs Leverkusen at 30 January 2021
Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim at 30 January 2021
Dortmund vs Augsburg at 30 January 2021
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg at 31 January 2021
FC Koln vs Bielefeld at 31 January 2021


Stuttgart vs Mainz at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

1.75

1.96

-6.1

Draw

4.11

4.15

-0.2

Mainz

4.54

4.00

3.0

Over 2.5

1.51

1.76

-9.4

Under 2.5

2.53

2.31

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz, Under 2.5 (3 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Bielefeld

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Augsburg

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Union Berlin

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Dortmund

A

5

1

W

O

G


Mainz in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Dortmund

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Bayern Munich

A

2

5

L

O

G

19 Dec

Werder Bremen

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Hertha

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

FC Koln

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

20%

32%

14%

35%

Mainz

36%

30%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 2.09 goals and Mainz to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.64 goals and Mainz to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.07

1

5.75

2-3

2.25

2

5.38

4+

3.23

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.07

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.76

6+

21.74

Un 2.5

2.31

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.23

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.42

4.17

2-3 goals

2.05

4.62

3.39

4+ goals

1.76

4.19

5.17

Ov 1.5

1.92

4.44

3.95

Un 1.5

2.14

3.42

4.17

Ov 2.5

1.66

7.68

3.76

Un 2.5

2.62

2.57

4.36

Ov 3.5

1.76

4.19

5.17

Un 3.5

2.08

4.11

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.36

3.01

4.10

No Goal

1.68

6.78

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.62

3.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

6.78

3.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ein Frankfurt vs Hertha at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

1.80

2.00

-5.6

Draw

3.90

4.10

-1.3

Hertha

4.33

3.91

2.5

Over 2.5

1.65

1.81

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.27

2.23

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Bielefeld

A

5

1

W

O

G

20 Jan

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Schalke 04

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Mainz

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Leverkusen

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

M’gladbach

H

3

3

D

O

G

11 Dec

Wolfsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G


Hertha in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Jan

Hoffenheim

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

FC Koln

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Jan

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Schalke 04

H

3

0

W

O

N

20 Dec

Freiburg

A

1

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Mainz

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

M’gladbach

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

20%

32%

18%

30%

Hertha

36%

30%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.89 goals and Hertha to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.59 goals and Hertha to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.07

1

5.75

2-3

2.18

2

4.95

4+

3.38

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.07

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

25.00

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.42

4.17

2-3 goals

1.98

4.77

3.50

4+ goals

1.93

3.84

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.36

3.83

Un 1.5

2.14

3.42

4.17

Ov 2.5

1.74

7.17

3.52

Un 2.5

2.48

2.67

4.53

Ov 3.5

1.93

3.84

4.48

Un 3.5

2.03

4.19

3.71

Goal-Goal

2.46

2.96

3.91

No Goal

1.68

6.78

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.40

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.78

3.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Werder Bremen vs Schalke 04 at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

1.91

1.55

12.2

Draw

3.57

4.76

-7.0

Schalke 04

4.13

6.90

-9.7

Over 2.5

1.89

1.65

7.7

Under 2.5

1.94

2.54

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (12.2 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Hertha

A

4

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Union Berlin

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Mainz

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Dortmund

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

RB Leipzig

A

0

2

L

U

N


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

0

4

L

O

N

20 Jan

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hoffenheim

H

4

0

W

O

N

02 Jan

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Bielefeld

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Freiburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Augsburg

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

12%

25%

25%

38%

Schalke 04

36%

42%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.63 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.9 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

5.56

1

7.25

2-3

1.98

2

4.69

4+

3.17

3

3.44

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.67

Un 1.5

5.56

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.65

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.54

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.17

NoG

2.29

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.29

3.75

2-3 goals

1.50

4.89

7.88

4+ goals

1.43

4.92

10.16

Ov 1.5

1.47

4.90

8.62

Un 1.5

2.00

4.29

3.75

Ov 2.5

1.30

9.47

7.87

Un 2.5

2.16

2.71

5.95

Ov 3.5

1.43

4.92

10.16

Un 3.5

1.60

4.72

6.11

Goal-Goal

1.73

3.37

8.04

No Goal

1.36

10.38

5.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.41

7.19

6.57

NG+Un 2.5

1.59

10.38

4.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Union Berlin vs M’gladbach at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Union Berlin and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Union Berlin

3.26

1.93

21.1

Draw

3.41

4.17

-5.3

M’gladbach

2.25

4.13

-20.2

Over 2.5

1.77

1.74

1.0

Under 2.5

2.07

2.35

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (21.1 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Union Berlin in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance at home.
Union Berlin, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

RB Leipzig

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Jan

Leverkusen

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Dortmund

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

12 Dec

Bayern Munich

H

1

1

D

U

G


M’gladbach in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Hoffenheim

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ein Frankfurt

A

3

3

D

O

G

12 Dec

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Union Berlin and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Union Berlin

19%

31%

13%

36%

M’gladbach

36%

32%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.17 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team M’gladbach to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Union Berlin to score 1.67 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Union Berlin to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

4.18

1

5.81

2-3

2.25

2

5.38

4+

3.16

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.18

5

11.11

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.35

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.16

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-