2021 01 29 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs QPR at 01 February 2021
Reading vs Bournemouth at 29 January 2021
Norwich vs Middlesbrough at 30 January 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Preston at 30 January 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Barnsley at 30 January 2021
Huddersfield vs Stoke at 30 January 2021
Rotherham vs Swansea at 30 January 2021
Birmingham vs Coventry at 30 January 2021
Blackburn vs Luton at 30 January 2021
Brentford vs Wycombe at 30 January 2021
Cardiff vs Millwall at 30 January 2021
Derby vs Bristol City at 30 January 2021


Watford vs QPR at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.78

1.81

-0.9

Draw

3.63

3.98

-2.4

QPR

4.67

5.13

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.03

2.04

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.80

1.96

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Jan

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Norwich

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G


QPR in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance as a guest.
QPR, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Derby

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

Luton

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Reading

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, QPR.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

17%

32%

28%

24%

QPR

37%

42%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.61 goals and QPR to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.58 goals and QPR to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

3.95

1

5.26

2-3

1.94

2

3.88

4+

4.33

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.95

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

4.02

3.47

2-3 goals

1.68

3.85

6.88

4+ goals

1.78

4.28

4.91

Ov 1.5

1.71

3.97

6.12

Un 1.5

2.16

4.02

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.46

9.06

4.89

Un 2.5

2.33

2.59

5.38

Ov 3.5

1.78

4.28

4.91

Un 3.5

1.81

3.90

5.20

Goal-Goal

2.11

2.78

6.01

No Goal

1.56

7.57

4.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

7.20

4.47

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

7.57

3.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Reading vs Bournemouth at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reading

3.29

2.42

10.9

Draw

3.32

3.76

-3.5

Bournemouth

2.25

3.12

-12.4

Over 2.5

2.16

2.09

1.6

Under 2.5

1.71

1.92

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading, Over 2.5 (10.9 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Preston

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Coventry

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Jan

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Luton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Brentford

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Dec

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N


Bournemouth in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance as a guest.
Bournemouth, as a guest, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Jan

Derby

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Stoke

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Luton

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Wycombe

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Huddersfield

H

5

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reading

27%

30%

26%

17%

Bournemouth

33%

32%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 1 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Bournemouth to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.32 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.60

1

5.32

2-3

2.07

2

4.12

4+

4.18

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.60

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.09

3.16

2-3 goals

2.17

4.92

2.98

4+ goals

2.63

3.06

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.30

4.10

3.11

Un 1.5

2.78

3.09

3.16

Ov 2.5

2.09

6.13

2.80

Un 2.5

2.83

2.77

3.50

Ov 3.5

2.63

3.06

3.41

Un 3.5

2.36

4.04

3.04

Goal-Goal

2.80

2.77

3.55

No Goal

2.14

5.69

2.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

4.99

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.69

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Norwich vs Middlesbrough at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Norwich and Middlesbrough for Championship (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Norwich

1.84

1.92

-2.3

Draw

3.70

3.92

-1.5

Middlesbrough

4.22

4.46

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.95

2.06

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.88

1.95

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance at home.
Norwich, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 71.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Jan

Bristol City

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Cardiff

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Watford

A

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Cardiff

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

Reading

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G


Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance as a guest.
Middlesbrough, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

Blackburn

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Nott’m Forest

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Wycombe

A

3

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Norwich and the red line for guest team, Middlesbrough.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Norwich

20%

30%

28%

22%

Middlesbrough

36%

41%

14%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.62 goals and Middlesbrough to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Norwich to score 1.52 goals and Middlesbrough to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Norwich to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.83

1

5.26

2-3

1.98

2

3.95

4+

4.29

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.83

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.68

3.18

2-3 goals

1.72

4.08

5.75

4+ goals

1.96

3.88

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.02

5.20

Un 1.5

2.42

3.68

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.56

8.10

4.26

Un 2.5

2.46

2.64

4.67

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.88

4.31

Un 3.5

1.91

3.93

4.51

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.80

5.36

No Goal

1.70

6.83

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

6.52

4.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.83

3.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield Weds vs Preston at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

2.87

2.40

6.8

Draw

3.10

3.61

-4.6

Preston

2.62

3.26

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.30

2.25

1.0

Under 2.5

1.63

1.80

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Huddersfield

A

0

2

L

U

N


Preston in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Bristol City

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

28%

34%

19%

18%

Preston

34%

37%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.07 goals and Preston to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.28 goals and Preston to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.14

1

4.50

2-3

2.16

2

4.22

4+

4.52

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.14

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.31

3.09

2-3 goals