# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs QPR at 01 February 2021**** Reading vs Bournemouth at 29 January 2021**** Norwich vs Middlesbrough at 30 January 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Preston at 30 January 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Barnsley at 30 January 2021**** Huddersfield vs Stoke at 30 January 2021**** Rotherham vs Swansea at 30 January 2021**** Birmingham vs Coventry at 30 January 2021**** Blackburn vs Luton at 30 January 2021**** Brentford vs Wycombe at 30 January 2021**** Cardiff vs Millwall at 30 January 2021**** Derby vs Bristol City at 30 January 2021**

###
Watford vs QPR at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **QPR** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.78 |
1.81 |
-0.9 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.98 |
-2.4 |

QPR |
4.67 |
5.13 |
-1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.04 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.96 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** as a guest**.

QPR,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Wycombe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Stoke |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **QPR. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
17% |
32% |
28% |
24% |

QPR |
37% |
42% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.61 ** goals and **QPR** to score **0.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.58 ** goals and **QPR** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
4.02 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
3.85 |
6.88 |

4+ goals |
1.78 |
4.28 |
4.91 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
3.97 |
6.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
4.02 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.46 |
9.06 |
4.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.59 |
5.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.28 |
4.91 |

Un 3.5 |
1.81 |
3.90 |
5.20 |

Goal-Goal |
2.11 |
2.78 |
6.01 |

No Goal |
1.56 |
7.57 |
4.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
7.20 |
4.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.57 |
3.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Reading vs Bournemouth at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reading** and **Bournemouth** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reading |
3.29 |
2.42 |
10.9 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.76 |
-3.5 |

Bournemouth |
2.25 |
3.12 |
-12.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.09 |
1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.92 |
-6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reading, Over 2.5 (10.9 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** at home**.

Reading,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Preston |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bournemouth** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bournemouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Bournemouth,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Jan |
Derby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Luton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Huddersfield |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reading** and the red line for guest team, **Bournemouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reading |
27% |
30% |
26% |
17% |

Bournemouth |
33% |
32% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the guest team **Bournemouth ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reading** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.78 |
3.09 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
4.92 |
2.98 |

4+ goals |
2.63 |
3.06 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
4.10 |
3.11 |

Un 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.09 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.13 |
2.80 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.77 |
3.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.06 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
4.04 |
3.04 |

Goal-Goal |
2.80 |
2.77 |
3.55 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
5.69 |
2.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
4.99 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.69 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Norwich vs Middlesbrough at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Norwich** and **Middlesbrough** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Norwich |
1.84 |
1.92 |
-2.3 |

Draw |
3.70 |
3.92 |
-1.5 |

Middlesbrough |
4.22 |
4.46 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.06 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.95 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** at home**.

Norwich,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 71.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Watford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** as a guest**.

Middlesbrough,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Norwich** and the red line for guest team, **Middlesbrough. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Norwich |
20% |
30% |
28% |
22% |

Middlesbrough |
36% |
41% |
14% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Norwich** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Middlesbrough** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Norwich ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Norwich** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Middlesbrough** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Norwich ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.68 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
1.72 |
4.08 |
5.75 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.88 |
4.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.02 |
5.20 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.68 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
8.10 |
4.26 |

Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
2.64 |
4.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.88 |
4.31 |

Un 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.93 |
4.51 |

Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.80 |
5.36 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
6.83 |
3.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.52 |
4.07 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.83 |
3.55 |

####
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###
Sheffield Weds vs Preston at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield Weds** and **Preston** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield Weds |
2.87 |
2.40 |
6.8 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.61 |
-4.6 |

Preston |
2.62 |
3.26 |
-7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.25 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.80 |
-5.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield Weds,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** as a guest**.

Preston,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Derby |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield Weds** and the red line for guest team, **Preston. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield Weds |
28% |
34% |
19% |
18% |

Preston |
34% |
37% |
16% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield Weds** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Preston** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.31 |
3.09 |

2-3 goals |