2021 01 29 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barnet vs Torquay at 30 January 2021
Boreham Wood vs Eastleigh at 30 January 2021
Dag and Red vs Chesterfield at 30 January 2021
Halifax vs Maidenhead at 30 January 2021
Hartlepool vs Sutton at 30 January 2021
King’s Lynn vs Wrexham at 30 January 2021
Solihull vs Wealdstone at 30 January 2021
Bromley vs Aldershot at 30 January 2021
Woking vs Stockport at 30 January 2021
Yeovil vs Dover Athletic at 30 January 2021
Weymouth vs Notts County at 30 January 2021


Barnet vs Torquay at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnet

4.79

3.89

4.8

Draw

4.05

3.70

2.3

Torquay

1.59

2.11

-15.5

Over 2.5

1.61

1.92

-10.0

Under 2.5

2.27

2.09

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnet, Draw, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 2.3 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Chesterfield

A

0

6

L

O

N

08 Dec

Stockport

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Wealdstone

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Dec

Halifax

A

2

5

L

O

G

24 Nov

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N


Torquay in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Notts County

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Weymouth

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Yeovil

H

6

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Dec

Maidenhead

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnet

26%

47%

17%

10%

Torquay

19%

32%

27%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 0.89 goals and Torquay to score 2.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.11 goals and Torquay to score 1.51 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.41

0-1

4.50

1

5.78

2-3

1.95

2

3.92

4+

3.77

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.56

Un 1.5

4.50

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

1.66

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.51

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

4.53

2.67

2-3 goals

4.74

3.35

2.04

4+ goals

4.49

3.90

1.92

Ov 1.5

4.65

3.52

2.00

Un 1.5

2.47

4.53

2.67

Ov 2.5

3.90

7.68

1.63

Un 2.5

3.88

2.36

3.14

Ov 3.5

4.49

3.90

1.92

Un 3.5

3.71

3.63

2.20

Goal-Goal

5.23

2.72

2.27

No Goal

2.80

8.12

1.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.90

6.59

1.69

NG+Un 2.5

2.63

8.12

2.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Boreham Wood vs Eastleigh at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Eastleigh for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boreham Wood

1.86

2.52

-14.1

Draw

3.61

3.69

-0.6

Eastleigh

3.80

3.01

6.9

Over 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.87

2.00

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boreham Wood in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Chesterfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Stockport

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Barnet

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Aldershot

H

3

2

W

O

G

08 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Hartlepool

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Nov

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N


Eastleigh in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance as a guest.
Eastleigh, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Dag and Red

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Sutton

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Weymouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Weymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Halifax

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Dec

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Eastleigh.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boreham Wood

23%

36%

23%

17%

Eastleigh

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.58 goals and Eastleigh to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.33 goals and Eastleigh to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.95

1

5.38

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.78

3.09

2-3 goals

2.52

3.88

2.90

4+ goals

2.64

3.33

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.67

2.97

Un 1.5

2.43

3.78

3.09

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.55

2.53

Un 2.5

2.93

2.58

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.64

3.33

3.12

Un 3.5

2.49

3.85

2.96

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.69

3.31

No Goal

2.08

6.76

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.35

5.51

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.76

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dag and Red vs Chesterfield at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

2.85

3.06

-2.4

Draw

3.44

3.62

-1.4

Chesterfield

2.28

2.52

-4.2

Over 2.5

1.76

1.99

-6.6

Under 2.5

2.04

2.01

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Eastleigh

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Torquay

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Weymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wrexham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Barnet

H

6

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Nov

Weymouth

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

24%

43%

21%

12%

Chesterfield

24%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.24 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.21 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.12

1

5.41

2-3

1.98

2

3.92

4+

3.94

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.99

Un 1.5

4.12

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.36

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

4.19

3.08

2-3 goals

3.34

3.48

2.42

4+ goals

3.63

3.48

2.29

Ov 1.5

3.43

3.48

2.38

Un 1.5

2.29

4.19

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.96

6.89

1.93

Un 2.5

3.17

2.45

3.61

Ov 3.5

3.63

3.48

2.29

Un 3.5

2.91

3.68

2.60

Goal-Goal

4.10

2.65

2.64

No Goal

2.27

7.29

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.07

5.93

1.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

7.29

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Maidenhead at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

1.99

2.27

-6.2

Draw

3.29

3.80

-4.1

Maidenhead

3.65

3.38

2.2

Over 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.86

2.00

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Dec

Aldershot

A

3

1

W

O

G


Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Yeovil

H

4

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bromley

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

31%

25%

20%

Maidenhead

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.53 goals and Maidenhead to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.41 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.88

1

5.46

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66