Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
For Sittard vs VVV Venlo at 30 January 2021
Vitesse vs Waalwijk at 30 January 2021
Utrecht vs Zwolle at 30 January 2021
Heracles vs Groningen at 30 January 2021
Willem II vs FC Emmen at 31 January 2021
Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven at 31 January 2021
Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam at 31 January 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax at 31 January 2021
Twente vs Heerenveen at 31 January 2021
For Sittard vs VVV Venlo at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
For Sittard |
2.05 |
2.43 |
-7.6 |
|
Draw |
3.69 |
3.28 |
3.4 |
|
VVV Venlo |
3.31 |
3.52 |
-1.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
2.11 |
-14.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.33 |
1.90 |
9.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (3.4 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
For Sittard in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
VVV Venlo in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Twente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
For Sittard |
20% |
41% |
19% |
20% |
|
VVV Venlo |
22% |
51% |
17% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.72 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.39 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
4.17 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.94 |
|
2 |
3.50 |
4+ |
4.10 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.62 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |
|
NoG |
2.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.64 |
5.33 |
2.31 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.82 |
2.47 |
4.16 |
|
4+ goals |
1.79 |
4.78 |
4.28 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
2.92 |
4.20 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
5.33 |
2.31 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
9.29 |
3.25 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.95 |
2.07 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.78 |
4.28 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
2.98 |
3.32 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.38 |
4.87 |
|
No Goal |
2.14 |
8.47 |
2.41 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.04 |
3.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
8.47 |
2.28 |
Go to Top
Vitesse vs Waalwijk at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Vitesse |
1.34 |
1.45 |
-5.7 |
|
Draw |
5.11 |
5.38 |
-1.0 |
|
Waalwijk |
8.21 |
8.13 |
0.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.66 |
-4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.53 |
-1.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk (0.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Vitesse in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 92.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Vitesse |
11% |
13% |
39% |
37% |
|
Waalwijk |
51% |
23% |
17% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 2.42 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 1.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 2.02 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
6.71 |
|
1 |
10.99 |
2-3 |
1.79 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.41 |
|
3 |
3.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
6.71 |
|
5 |
10.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
|
6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.53 |
|
Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |
|
NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.29 |
2.57 |
5.73 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.16 |
19.24 |
11.16 |
|
4+ goals |
1.97 |
2.99 |
6.37 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
6.70 |
8.86 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.29 |
2.57 |
5.73 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
6.16 |
7.84 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.50 |
4.55 |
8.80 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.97 |
2.99 |
6.37 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
8.13 |
9.30 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.81 |
3.41 |
6.46 |
|
No Goal |
1.25 |
9.78 |
10.31 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
4.12 |
6.03 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.39 |
9.78 |
8.16 |
Go to Top
Utrecht vs Zwolle at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Utrecht and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Utrecht |
1.60 |
1.99 |
-12.2 |
|
Draw |
4.02 |
4.20 |
-1.1 |
|
Zwolle |
5.46 |
3.88 |
7.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.75 |
-2.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.33 |
-2.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle (7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Utrecht in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance at home.
Utrecht, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
FC Emmen |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Zwolle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Utrecht and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Utrecht |
22% |
21% |
33% |
25% |
|
Zwolle |
30% |
38% |
19% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Utrecht to score 2 goals and Zwolle to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Utrecht to score 1.61 goals and Zwolle to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Utrecht to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.76 |
|
1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.55 |
4+ |
3.29 |
|
3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.26 |
|
4 |
5.43 |
Un 1.5 |
4.76 |
|
5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
|
6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
|
Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.29 |
|
NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.63 |
6.09 |
4.47 |
|
4+ goals |
2.13 |
3.23 |
4.54 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.55 |
4.49 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
3.23 |
2.53 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.07 |
4.26 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.97 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.23 |
4.54 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.81 |
3.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.04 |
3.16 |
5.14 |
|
No Goal |
1.93 |
6.94 |
2.97 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
5.00 |
4.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.94 |
2.80 |
Go to Top
Heracles vs Groningen at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Groningen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Heracles |
2.31 |
2.26 |
1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.98 |
-5.1 |
|
Groningen |
3.04 |
3.25 |
-2.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.65 |
12.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.54 |
-17.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles, Over 2.5 (1 %, 12.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Dec |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance as a guest.
Groningen, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Groningen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Heracles |
20% |
29% |
24% |
28% |
|
Groningen |
26% |
32% |
24% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.3 goals and Groningen to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.59 goals and Groningen to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
19.61 |
0-1 |
5.26 |
|
1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
2.82 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |
|
4 |
5.05 |
Un 1.5 |
5.26 |
|
5 |
9.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
|
6+ |
20.83 |
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
|
Gg |
1.68 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |
|
NoG |
2.47 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |