# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Betis vs Osasuna at 01 February 2021**** Valladolid vs Huesca at 29 January 2021**** Villarreal vs Sociedad at 30 January 2021**** Valencia vs Elche at 30 January 2021**** Real Madrid vs Levante at 30 January 2021**** Eibar vs Sevilla at 30 January 2021**** Getafe vs Alaves at 31 January 2021**** Cadiz vs Ath Madrid at 31 January 2021**** Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao at 31 January 2021**** Granada vs Celta at 31 January 2021**

###
Betis vs Osasuna at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Betis** and **Osasuna** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Betis |
1.90 |
2.12 |
-5.5 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.83 |
-2.4 |

Osasuna |
4.36 |
3.75 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.03 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.97 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Osasuna (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Betis** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Betis** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance** at home**.

Betis,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Betis scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Levante |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** as a guest**.

Osasuna,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Elche |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Betis** and the red line for guest team, **Osasuna. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Betis |
22% |
33% |
24% |
22% |

Osasuna |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Betis** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Osasuna** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Betis ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Betis** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Osasuna** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Betis ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.55 |
3.41 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.12 |
3.80 |

4+ goals |
2.08 |
3.61 |
4.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.93 |
3.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.55 |
3.41 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.16 |
3.38 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.63 |
4.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.61 |
4.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.90 |
3.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.75 |
4.19 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.48 |
3.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.75 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.48 |
3.24 |

####
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###
Valladolid vs Huesca at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valladolid** and **Huesca** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valladolid |
2.41 |
2.20 |
4.0 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.86 |
-6.1 |

Huesca |
3.25 |
3.48 |
-2.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.96 |
10.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.04 |
-15.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Valladolid, Over 2.5 (4 %, 10.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valladolid** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valladolid** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance** at home**.

Valladolid,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Valladolid scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** as a guest**.

Huesca,** as a guest**, had no wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Celta |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valladolid** and the red line for guest team, **Huesca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valladolid |
23% |
29% |
28% |
20% |

Huesca |
32% |
35% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valladolid** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Valladolid ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.71 |
3.60 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.22 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.06 |
3.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.30 |
3.23 |

Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.76 |
3.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.22 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
4.16 |
3.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.83 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
6.46 |
3.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.17 |
3.22 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.46 |
2.98 |

####
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###
Villarreal vs Sociedad at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Villarreal** and **Sociedad** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Villarreal |
2.43 |
2.40 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.72 |
-4.8 |

Sociedad |
3.19 |
3.17 |
0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.98 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.02 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Villarreal, Sociedad, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.2 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Villarreal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Villarreal** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance** at home**.

Villarreal,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Villarreal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Celta |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** as a guest**.

Sociedad,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Betis |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Villarreal** and the red line for guest team, **Sociedad. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Villarreal |
24% |
34% |
23% |
19% |

Sociedad |
28% |
38% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Villarreal** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Villarreal** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.76 |
2.80 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.81 |
3.23 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.70 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.76 |
2.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.81 |
2.90 |

Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.54 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.79 |
3.07 |

Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.71 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
6.76 |
2.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.66 |
2.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.76 |
2.63 |

####
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###
Valencia vs Elche at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Valencia** and **Elche** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Valencia |
1.66 |
2.57 |
-21.3 |

Draw |
3.78 |
3.88 |
-0.7 |

Elche |
5.91 |
2.82 |
18.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.87 |
4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.15 |
-8.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Elche, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 4.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases 3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Valencia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Valencia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance** at home**.

Valencia,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Valencia scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Dec |
Granada |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** as a guest**.

Elche,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Granada |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Valencia** and the red line for guest team, **Elche. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Valencia |
26% |
28% |
30% |
16% |

Elche |
29% |
30% |
23% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Elche** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Valencia ** to win by **1.01** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Valencia** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Elche** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.12 |