Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Betis vs Osasuna at 01 February 2021
Valladolid vs Huesca at 29 January 2021
Villarreal vs Sociedad at 30 January 2021
Valencia vs Elche at 30 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Levante at 30 January 2021
Eibar vs Sevilla at 30 January 2021
Getafe vs Alaves at 31 January 2021
Cadiz vs Ath Madrid at 31 January 2021
Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao at 31 January 2021
Granada vs Celta at 31 January 2021
Betis vs Osasuna at 01 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Osasuna for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Betis |
1.90 |
2.12 |
-5.5 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.83 |
-2.4 |
|
Osasuna |
4.36 |
3.75 |
3.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.03 |
0.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.97 |
-3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Betis in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Levante |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Osasuna in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance as a guest.
Osasuna, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Granada |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Elche |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Osasuna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Betis |
22% |
33% |
24% |
22% |
|
Osasuna |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.57 goals and Osasuna to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.45 goals and Osasuna to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.76 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.02 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.55 |
3.41 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.12 |
3.80 |
|
4+ goals |
2.08 |
3.61 |
4.15 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.93 |
3.91 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.55 |
3.41 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.16 |
3.38 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.63 |
4.23 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.61 |
4.15 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.90 |
3.65 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.75 |
4.19 |
|
No Goal |
1.81 |
6.48 |
3.40 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.75 |
3.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.48 |
3.24 |
Go to Top
Valladolid vs Huesca at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Valladolid |
2.41 |
2.20 |
4.0 |
|
Draw |
3.12 |
3.86 |
-6.1 |
|
Huesca |
3.25 |
3.48 |
-2.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.96 |
10.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.04 |
-15.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (4 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
11 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Huesca in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had no wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Celta |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Alaves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Valladolid |
23% |
29% |
28% |
20% |
|
Huesca |
32% |
35% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.16 goals and Huesca to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.44 goals and Huesca to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.00 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.83 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
|
5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.71 |
3.60 |
|
4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.22 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.06 |
3.65 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.38 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.30 |
3.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.76 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.22 |
3.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
4.16 |
3.39 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.83 |
4.02 |
|
No Goal |
1.94 |
6.46 |
3.03 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.17 |
3.22 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.46 |
2.98 |
Go to Top
Villarreal vs Sociedad at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Villarreal and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Villarreal |
2.43 |
2.40 |
0.5 |
|
Draw |
3.16 |
3.72 |
-4.8 |
|
Sociedad |
3.19 |
3.17 |
0.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
1.98 |
4.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.02 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Villarreal, Sociedad, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.2 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Villarreal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance at home.
Villarreal, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Celta |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Sociedad in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance as a guest.
Sociedad, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Betis |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Villarreal and the red line for guest team, Sociedad.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Villarreal |
24% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
|
Sociedad |
28% |
38% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.27 goals and Sociedad to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.38 goals and Sociedad to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.97 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.85 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |
|
NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.76 |
2.80 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.81 |
3.23 |
|
4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.70 |
3.34 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.76 |
2.80 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.81 |
2.90 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.54 |
3.54 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.79 |
3.07 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.71 |
3.83 |
|
No Goal |
2.11 |
6.76 |
2.65 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.66 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.76 |
2.63 |
Go to Top
Valencia vs Elche at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Valencia |
1.66 |
2.57 |
-21.3 |
|
Draw |
3.78 |
3.88 |
-0.7 |
|
Elche |
5.91 |
2.82 |
18.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.87 |
4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.15 |
-8.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (18.5 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Granada |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Granada |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Valencia |
26% |
28% |
30% |
16% |
|
Elche |
29% |
30% |
23% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.71 goals and Elche to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Valencia to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.36 goals and Elche to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.27 |
|
1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.48 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |
|
5 |
11.11 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.48 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.12 |