2021 01 29 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 January 2021
Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 January 2021
Northampton vs Wigan at 30 January 2021
Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 January 2021
Hull vs Swindon at 30 January 2021
Crewe vs Ipswich at 30 January 2021
Charlton vs Portsmouth at 30 January 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Rochdale at 30 January 2021
Blackpool vs Burton at 30 January 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 30 January 2021
Plymouth vs Accrington at 30 January 2021
Shrewsbury vs Peterboro at 30 January 2021


Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.59

2.23

-18.1

Draw

3.86

3.72

1.0

Gillingham

5.88

3.53

11.3

Over 2.5

2.11

2.10

0.2

Under 2.5

1.73

1.91

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Gillingham, Over 2.5 (1 %, 11.3 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Plymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Lincoln

A

4

0

W

O

N


Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Rochdale

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Burton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Northampton

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Accrington

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

22%

34%

25%

18%

Gillingham

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.68 goals and Gillingham to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.38 goals and Gillingham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.70

1

5.13

2-3

2.01

2

3.94

4+

4.33

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.70

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.60

3.38

2-3 goals

2.12

4.05

3.56

4+ goals

2.33

3.30

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.78

3.61

Un 1.5

2.35

3.60

3.38

Ov 2.5

1.91

6.79

3.04

Un 2.5

2.62

2.65

4.16

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.30

3.73

Un 3.5

2.19

3.88

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.67

3.88

No Goal

1.86

6.44

3.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.61

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.44

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

1.97

2.27

-6.7

Draw

3.28

3.83

-4.4

Fleetwood Town

4.05

3.37

5.0

Over 2.5

2.14

1.98

3.8

Under 2.5

1.72

2.02

-8.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fleetwood Town, Over 2.5 (5 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Rochdale

A

4

3

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Burton

A

5

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Plymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Northampton

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Blackpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Wigan

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Portsmouth

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Dec

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

24%

30%

27%

19%

Fleetwood Town

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.45 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.41 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.94

1

5.59

2-3

2.04

2

4.13

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.94

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.76

3.39

2.92

2-3 goals

2.02

4.57

3.49

4+ goals

2.39

3.24

3.66

Ov 1.5

2.13

4.01

3.55

Un 1.5

2.76

3.39

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.91

6.37

3.14

Un 2.5

2.80

2.73

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.24

3.66

Un 3.5

2.22

4.08

3.27

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.81

3.99

No Goal

2.03

6.35

2.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.27

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

6.35

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Northampton vs Wigan at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

2.37

2.39

-0.4

Draw

3.37

3.80

-3.4

Wigan

2.93

3.13

-2.2

Over 2.5

1.99

1.96

0.8

Under 2.5

1.83

2.04

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Fleetwood Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Gillingham

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Oxford

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Crewe

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Doncaster

H

0

2

L

U

N


Wigan in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Blackpool

H

0

5

L

O

N

23 Jan

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Dec

Burton

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Fleetwood Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Rochdale

H

0

5

L

O

N

12 Dec

Accrington

H

4

3

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

26%

29%

27%

18%

Wigan

29%

37%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.32 goals and Wigan to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.38 goals and Wigan to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.97

1

5.62

2-3

2.05

2

4.17

4+

3.83

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.97

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.41

2.68

2-3 goals

2.15

4.55

3.18

4+ goals

2.44

3.18

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.96

3.32

Un 1.5

3.00

3.41

2.68

Ov 2.5

1.98

6.20

3.01

Un 2.5

3.06

2.72

3.28

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.18

3.62

Un 3.5

2.38

4.08

2.99

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.80

3.89

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.15

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.39

6.36

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lincoln

2.09

2.46

-7.2

Draw

3.40

3.65

-2.0

Doncaster

3.47

3.12

3.2

Over 2.5

2.04

2.10

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.79

1.91

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Portsmouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Northampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Peterboro

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Burton

H

5

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Northampton

A

4

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Sunderland

H

0

4

L

O

N


Doncaster in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Rochdale

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Swindon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Burton

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Gillingham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lincoln

25%

35%

24%

16%

Doncaster

29%

36%

23%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.42 goals and Doncaster to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.31 goals and Doncaster to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.75

1

5.18

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.29

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.61

2.93