Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 January 2021
Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 January 2021
Northampton vs Wigan at 30 January 2021
Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 January 2021
Hull vs Swindon at 30 January 2021
Crewe vs Ipswich at 30 January 2021
Charlton vs Portsmouth at 30 January 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Rochdale at 30 January 2021
Blackpool vs Burton at 30 January 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons at 30 January 2021
Plymouth vs Accrington at 30 January 2021
Shrewsbury vs Peterboro at 30 January 2021
Sunderland vs Gillingham at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sunderland |
1.59 |
2.23 |
-18.1 |
|
Draw |
3.86 |
3.72 |
1.0 |
|
Gillingham |
5.88 |
3.53 |
11.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.10 |
0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.91 |
-5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Gillingham, Over 2.5 (1 %, 11.3 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sunderland in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sunderland |
22% |
34% |
25% |
18% |
|
Gillingham |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.68 goals and Gillingham to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.38 goals and Gillingham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.70 |
|
1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.33 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.38 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.12 |
4.05 |
3.56 |
|
4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.30 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.78 |
3.61 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.60 |
3.38 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.79 |
3.04 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.65 |
4.16 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.30 |
3.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.88 |
3.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.67 |
3.88 |
|
No Goal |
1.86 |
6.44 |
3.24 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.61 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.44 |
3.18 |
Go to Top
Oxford vs Fleetwood Town at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oxford |
1.97 |
2.27 |
-6.7 |
|
Draw |
3.28 |
3.83 |
-4.4 |
|
Fleetwood Town |
4.05 |
3.37 |
5.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.98 |
3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.02 |
-8.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Fleetwood Town, Over 2.5 (5 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oxford in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Burton |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oxford |
24% |
30% |
27% |
19% |
|
Fleetwood Town |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.45 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Oxford to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.41 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.94 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.91 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |
|
5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.76 |
3.39 |
2.92 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.57 |
3.49 |
|
4+ goals |
2.39 |
3.24 |
3.66 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
4.01 |
3.55 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.76 |
3.39 |
2.92 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.37 |
3.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.73 |
3.62 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.24 |
3.66 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.08 |
3.27 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.81 |
3.99 |
|
No Goal |
2.03 |
6.35 |
2.87 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.27 |
3.18 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.35 |
2.84 |
Go to Top
Northampton vs Wigan at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Northampton |
2.37 |
2.39 |
-0.4 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.80 |
-3.4 |
|
Wigan |
2.93 |
3.13 |
-2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.96 |
0.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.04 |
-5.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Northampton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Wigan in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Burton |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Accrington |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Northampton |
26% |
29% |
27% |
18% |
|
Wigan |
29% |
37% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.32 goals and Wigan to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.38 goals and Wigan to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.97 |
|
1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.83 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
|
5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.41 |
2.68 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.15 |
4.55 |
3.18 |
|
4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.18 |
3.62 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.96 |
3.32 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.41 |
2.68 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.20 |
3.01 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.72 |
3.28 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.18 |
3.62 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
4.08 |
2.99 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
2.80 |
3.89 |
|
No Goal |
2.20 |
6.36 |
2.57 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.15 |
3.10 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.36 |
2.57 |
Go to Top
Lincoln vs Doncaster at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lincoln |
2.09 |
2.46 |
-7.2 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.65 |
-2.0 |
|
Doncaster |
3.47 |
3.12 |
3.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.10 |
-1.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.91 |
-3.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lincoln in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
Doncaster in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Burton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lincoln |
25% |
35% |
24% |
16% |
|
Doncaster |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.42 goals and Doncaster to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.31 goals and Doncaster to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.75 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.29 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.61 |
2.93 |