# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Colchester vs Scunthorpe at 29 January 2021**** Bolton vs Leyton Orient at 30 January 2021**** Carlisle vs Exeter at 30 January 2021**** Forest Green vs Cheltenham at 30 January 2021**** Grimsby vs Stevenage at 30 January 2021**** Harrogate vs Newport County at 30 January 2021**** Morecambe vs Tranmere at 30 January 2021**** Oldham vs Salford at 30 January 2021**** Port Vale vs Southend at 30 January 2021**** Walsall vs Mansfield at 30 January 2021**** Bradford vs Barrow at 30 January 2021**** Cambridge vs Crawley Town at 30 January 2021**

###
Colchester vs Scunthorpe at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
2.60 |
2.35 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.66 |
-4.7 |

Scunthorpe |
2.83 |
3.32 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.21 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.82 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester (4.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
27% |
31% |
28% |
15% |

Scunthorpe |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.27 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
4.38 |
3.49 |

4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.01 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.86 |
3.55 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.27 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.43 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.71 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.01 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.90 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.66 |
4.12 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
5.77 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.37 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.77 |
2.80 |

####
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###
Bolton vs Leyton Orient at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bolton** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bolton |
2.24 |
2.67 |
-7.2 |

Draw |
3.44 |
3.60 |
-1.3 |

Leyton Orient |
3.10 |
2.89 |
2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.22 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.82 |
2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** at home**.

Bolton,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bolton** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bolton |
28% |
36% |
22% |
14% |

Leyton Orient |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.41 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.49 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.63 |
3.81 |
2.81 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.01 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.65 |
2.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.49 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.95 |
2.43 |

Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.58 |
3.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.01 |

Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.68 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
3.17 |
2.60 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
2.29 |
5.92 |
2.54 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.77 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.92 |
2.61 |

####
Go to Top

###
Carlisle vs Exeter at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
2.03 |
2.19 |
-3.6 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.68 |
-3.2 |

Exeter |
3.81 |
3.68 |
0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.12 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.89 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Exeter (0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
21% |
38% |
22% |
20% |

Exeter |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.89 |
3.53 |

2-3 goals |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.60 |
3.75 |

Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.89 |
3.53 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.49 |
3.13 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.52 |
4.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.68 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.61 |
3.99 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.74 |
3.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.16 |
2.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.74 |
3.23 |

####
Go to Top

###
Forest Green vs Cheltenham at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Forest Green** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Forest Green |
2.80 |
2.50 |
4.3 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.62 |
-5.9 |

Cheltenham |
2.72 |
3.08 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.23 |
-1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.81 |
-4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Forest Green (4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** at home**.

Forest Green,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Forest Green** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Forest Green |
28% |
32% |
26% |
14% |

Cheltenham |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.28 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
2.25 |
4.21 |