Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Colchester vs Scunthorpe at 29 January 2021
Bolton vs Leyton Orient at 30 January 2021
Carlisle vs Exeter at 30 January 2021
Forest Green vs Cheltenham at 30 January 2021
Grimsby vs Stevenage at 30 January 2021
Harrogate vs Newport County at 30 January 2021
Morecambe vs Tranmere at 30 January 2021
Oldham vs Salford at 30 January 2021
Port Vale vs Southend at 30 January 2021
Walsall vs Mansfield at 30 January 2021
Bradford vs Barrow at 30 January 2021
Cambridge vs Crawley Town at 30 January 2021
Colchester vs Scunthorpe at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Colchester |
2.60 |
2.35 |
4.1 |
|
Draw |
3.12 |
3.66 |
-4.7 |
|
Scunthorpe |
2.83 |
3.32 |
-5.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.21 |
-1.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.82 |
-3.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester (4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Colchester |
27% |
31% |
28% |
15% |
|
Scunthorpe |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.19 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.3 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.47 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.74 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |
|
NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.27 |
2.88 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.06 |
4.38 |
3.49 |
|
4+ goals |
2.51 |
3.01 |
3.70 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.86 |
3.55 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.27 |
2.88 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
6.43 |
3.10 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.71 |
3.54 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.01 |
3.70 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.90 |
3.24 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.66 |
4.12 |
|
No Goal |
2.13 |
5.77 |
2.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.37 |
3.16 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.77 |
2.80 |
Go to Top
Bolton vs Leyton Orient at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bolton |
2.24 |
2.67 |
-7.2 |
|
Draw |
3.44 |
3.60 |
-1.3 |
|
Leyton Orient |
3.10 |
2.89 |
2.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.22 |
-7.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.82 |
2.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (2.3 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bolton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bolton |
28% |
36% |
22% |
14% |
|
Leyton Orient |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.42 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.22 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.41 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.61 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.49 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.63 |
3.81 |
2.81 |
|
4+ goals |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.01 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.65 |
2.87 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.49 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.95 |
2.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.58 |
3.41 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.01 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.68 |
2.85 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.17 |
2.60 |
3.34 |
|
No Goal |
2.29 |
5.92 |
2.54 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.77 |
2.48 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.92 |
2.61 |
Go to Top
Carlisle vs Exeter at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Carlisle |
2.03 |
2.19 |
-3.6 |
|
Draw |
3.29 |
3.68 |
-3.2 |
|
Exeter |
3.81 |
3.68 |
0.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.12 |
-4.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.89 |
-0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Exeter (0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Nov |
Tranmere |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Exeter in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Carlisle |
21% |
38% |
22% |
20% |
|
Exeter |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.52 goals and Exeter to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.4 goals and Exeter to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.68 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.89 |
3.53 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |
|
4+ goals |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.18 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.60 |
3.75 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.89 |
3.53 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.49 |
3.13 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.52 |
4.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.18 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.68 |
3.56 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.61 |
3.99 |
|
No Goal |
1.79 |
6.74 |
3.40 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.16 |
2.94 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.74 |
3.23 |
Go to Top
Forest Green vs Cheltenham at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Forest Green and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Forest Green |
2.80 |
2.50 |
4.3 |
|
Draw |
2.98 |
3.62 |
-5.9 |
|
Cheltenham |
2.72 |
3.08 |
-4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.23 |
-1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.81 |
-4.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Forest Green (4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Forest Green in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance at home.
Forest Green, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Cheltenham in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Forest Green and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Forest Green |
28% |
32% |
26% |
14% |
|
Cheltenham |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.13 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.25 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.39 |
|
1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.72 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |
|
NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.28 |
2.86 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.25 |
4.21 |