Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Lyon vs Bordeaux at 29 January 2021
Marseille vs Rennes at 30 January 2021
Montpellier vs Lens at 30 January 2021
Strasbourg vs Reims at 31 January 2021
Nice vs St Etienne at 31 January 2021
Nantes vs Monaco at 31 January 2021
Lille vs Dijon at 31 January 2021
Brest vs Metz at 31 January 2021
Angers vs Nimes at 31 January 2021
Lorient vs Paris SG at 31 January 2021
Lyon vs Bordeaux at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lyon and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lyon |
1.42 |
1.94 |
-18.9 |
|
Draw |
4.89 |
3.76 |
6.1 |
|
Bordeaux |
7.45 |
4.59 |
8.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.66 |
-23.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.60 |
19.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 8.4 %, 19 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lyon in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance at home.
Lyon, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Lens |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Nice |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Bordeaux in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Angers |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
St Etienne |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lyon and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lyon |
24% |
34% |
27% |
15% |
|
Bordeaux |
50% |
29% |
12% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lyon to score 2.25 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lyon to score 1.32 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.26 |
0-1 |
2.77 |
|
1 |
4.17 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
6.21 |
|
3 |
4.65 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
|
4 |
9.43 |
Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
|
5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.66 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.61 |
|
Gg |
2.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.21 |
|
NoG |
1.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.19 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.12 |
2.98 |
5.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.68 |
4.82 |
5.07 |
|
4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.50 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.40 |
4.34 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
2.98 |
5.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.17 |
3.21 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.83 |
6.23 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.50 |
3.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.85 |
3.81 |
5.11 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.62 |
3.96 |
|
No Goal |
1.64 |
5.12 |
5.12 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.11 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
5.12 |
5.24 |
Go to Top
Marseille vs Rennes at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Marseille |
2.63 |
2.33 |
4.9 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
3.73 |
-4.0 |
|
Rennes |
2.82 |
3.31 |
-5.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.41 |
-1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.71 |
-3.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Marseille (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Marseille in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Angers |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Reims |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Rennes in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Brest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Nice |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Marseille |
29% |
29% |
32% |
10% |
|
Rennes |
37% |
36% |
13% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.12 goals and Rennes to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.23 goals and Rennes to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.26 |
0-1 |
3.11 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
8.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.11 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
|
Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.95 |
2.98 |
3.07 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.81 |
4.61 |
4.32 |
|
4+ goals |
3.85 |
3.49 |
2.20 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
4.24 |
3.42 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
2.98 |
3.07 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
7.83 |
2.58 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.72 |
4.12 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |
3.49 |
2.20 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.79 |
3.72 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.78 |
3.68 |
|
No Goal |
2.09 |
5.14 |
3.05 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.38 |
2.79 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.14 |
3.37 |
Go to Top
Montpellier vs Lens at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Montpellier |
2.75 |
2.30 |
7.1 |
|
Draw |
3.23 |
3.83 |
-4.9 |
|
Lens |
2.65 |
3.28 |
-7.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.35 |
-7.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.74 |
2.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Under 2.5 (7.1 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Montpellier in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Lille |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Brest |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Metz |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Lens |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Nice |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Monaco |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Montpellier |
29% |
26% |
35% |
10% |
|
Lens |
37% |
36% |
12% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.2 goals and Lens to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.24 goals and Lens to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.18 |
|
1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
5.24 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |
|
4 |
8.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |
|
NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.20 |
2.88 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.72 |
5.17 |
4.47 |
|
4+ goals |
4.06 |
3.35 |
2.20 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
4.49 |
3.47 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
2.88 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.49 |
2.64 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.80 |
4.01 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.06 |
3.35 |
2.20 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.95 |
3.72 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.92 |
3.72 |
|
No Goal |
2.13 |
5.09 |
3.00 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.14 |
2.92 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
5.09 |
3.34 |
Go to Top
Strasbourg vs Reims at 31 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 31 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Strasbourg |
2.09 |
2.16 |
-1.6 |
|
Draw |
3.22 |
3.77 |
-4.5 |
|
Reims |
3.90 |
3.66 |
1.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.32 |
-1.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.76 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Strasbourg in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Angers |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Metz |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Reims in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Bordeaux |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Brest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Strasbourg |
26% |
28% |
34% |
12% |
|
Reims |
38% |
36% |
15% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.38 goals and Reims to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.31 goals and Reims to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.33 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.18 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.18 |
|
NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |