# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Man City vs Sheffield United at 30 January 2021**** Everton vs Newcastle at 30 January 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Wolves at 30 January 2021**** Arsenal vs Man United at 30 January 2021**** Southampton vs Aston Villa at 30 January 2021**** West Brom vs Fulham at 30 January 2021**** Leicester vs Leeds at 31 January 2021**** Chelsea vs Burnley at 31 January 2021**** West Ham vs Liverpool at 31 January 2021**** Brighton vs Tottenham at 31 January 2021**

###
Man City vs Sheffield United at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Sheffield United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.14 |
1.40 |
-16.3 |

Draw |
8.83 |
5.71 |
6.2 |

Sheffield United |
21.09 |
9.17 |
6.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.47 |
1.83 |
-13.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.21 |
7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Sheffield United, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 6.2 %, 7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield United,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Dec |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
9% |
31% |
19% |
41% |

Sheffield United |
61% |
20% |
9% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.89 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.21** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.91 ** goals and **Sheffield United** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **1.25** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
3.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |

Gg |
2.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.54 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.41 |
4.60 |
14.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.27 |
8.13 |
11.38 |

4+ goals |
1.82 |
4.07 |
4.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
6.26 |
8.13 |

Un 1.5 |
1.41 |
4.60 |
14.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.33 |
10.11 |
6.74 |

Un 2.5 |
1.49 |
3.74 |
16.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.82 |
4.07 |
4.89 |

Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
6.44 |
12.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.98 |
4.78 |

No Goal |
1.17 |
11.21 |
18.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.30 |
3.92 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.28 |
11.21 |
13.93 |

####
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###
Everton vs Newcastle at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Newcastle** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
1.58 |
1.78 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
4.01 |
4.17 |
-1.0 |

Newcastle |
6.25 |
5.05 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.92 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.08 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** as a guest**.

Newcastle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Newcastle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
17% |
30% |
23% |
29% |

Newcastle |
39% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.82 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **1.14** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Newcastle** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.09 |
3.72 |
3.95 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |
4.45 |
5.37 |

4+ goals |
1.69 |
4.16 |
6.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |
4.35 |
5.57 |

Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.72 |
3.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.40 |
4.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.70 |
5.27 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.16 |
6.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.81 |
4.17 |
4.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.11 |
2.92 |
5.43 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
7.40 |
4.72 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
6.35 |
4.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.40 |
4.05 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crystal Palace vs Wolves at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
2.94 |
2.44 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.64 |
-4.5 |

Wolves |
2.62 |
3.16 |
-6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.13 |
6.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.88 |
-10.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (7 %, 6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
24% |
39% |
18% |
18% |

Wolves |
32% |
35% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.12** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.73 |
3.38 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
3.46 |
3.04 |

4+ goals |
2.35 |
3.89 |
3.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.59 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.73 |
3.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.70 |
2.55 |

Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.47 |
4.00 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
3.89 |
3.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.56 |
3.16 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.60 |
3.39 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.29 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.23 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.29 |
2.96 |

####
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###
Arsenal vs Man United at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Arsenal** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Arsenal |
2.88 |
2.92 |
-0.5 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.86 |
-3.3 |

Man United |
2.52 |
2.51 |
0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.92 |
-2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.08 |
-1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Man United (0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** at home**.

Arsenal,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 26 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Arsenal** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Arsenal |
31% |
29% |
23% |
17% |

Man United |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Arsenal** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.61 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.61 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |