2021 01 29 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Santa Clara vs Belenenses at 01 February 2021
Moreirense vs Sp Braga at 01 February 2021
Porto vs Rio Ave at 01 February 2021
Tondela vs Farense at 30 January 2021
Portimonense vs Boavista at 30 January 2021
Nacional vs Famalicao at 30 January 2021
Guimaraes vs Maritimo at 31 January 2021


Santa Clara vs Belenenses at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

2.24

2.27

-0.6

Draw

3.07

3.66

-5.3

Belenenses

3.48

3.50

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.41

2.20

4.0

Under 2.5

1.57

1.83

-9.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Rio Ave

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Boavista

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Moreirense

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Dec

Guimaraes

H

0

4

L

O

N

06 Dec

Nacional

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N


Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Jan

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Gil Vicente

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Sp Braga

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Boavista

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

25%

34%

23%

18%

Belenenses

34%

39%

16%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.23 goals and Belenenses to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.34 goals and Belenenses to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.36

1

4.72

2-3

2.08

2

4.02

4+

4.50

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.36

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.47

3.07

2-3 goals

2.12

3.70

3.88

4+ goals

2.24

3.83

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.74

3.72

Un 1.5

2.59

3.47

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.83

7.83

3.07

Un 2.5

2.83

2.53

3.96

Ov 3.5

2.24

3.83

3.42

Un 3.5

2.28

3.61

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.63

4.15

No Goal

2.00

5.90

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

6.28

3.06

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

5.90

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Moreirense vs Sp Braga at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Sp Braga for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

5.63

4.07

6.8

Draw

4.04

3.82

1.4

Sp Braga

1.57

2.03

-14.4

Over 2.5

1.83

2.41

-13.2

Under 2.5

2.00

1.71

8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Draw, Under 2.5 (6.8 %, 1.4 %, 8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Portimonense

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Nacional

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Guimaraes

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Porto

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

Santa Clara

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Tondela

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

1

L

U

N


Sp Braga in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Braga in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Braga’s performance as a guest.
Sp Braga, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Braga scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Braga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Gil Vicente

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Jan

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Boavista

A

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Rio Ave

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Dec

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

29 Nov

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Sp Braga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

40%

38%

16%

6%

Sp Braga

30%

20%

36%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 0.75 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 0.88 goals and Sp Braga to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Braga to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

3.16

1

5.15

2-3

1.95

2

3.73

4+

5.81

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

8.26

Un 1.5

3.16

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.40

Ov 3.5

5.81

NoG

1.71

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

2.59

4.00

2-3 goals

5.28

6.83

1.51

4+ goals

5.06

2.69

2.32

Ov 1.5

5.22

4.92

1.65

Un 1.5

2.75

2.59

4.00

Ov 2.5

4.95

6.50

1.55

Un 2.5

3.60

2.96

2.60

Ov 3.5

5.06

2.69

2.32

Un 3.5

3.91

4.20

1.98

Goal-Goal

6.40

2.99

1.96

No Goal

3.23

4.79

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

5.25

5.33

1.61

NG+Un 2.5

3.14

4.79

2.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Porto vs Rio Ave at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Porto and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Porto

1.33

1.89

-22.3

Draw

4.97

3.86

5.8

Rio Ave

8.59

4.74

9.5

Over 2.5

1.69

2.49

-19.0

Under 2.5

2.14

1.67

13.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rio Ave, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 9.5 %, 13.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Porto in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance at home.
Porto, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Famalicao

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Dec

Guimaraes

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Dec

Tondela

H

4

3

W

O

G

28 Nov

Santa Clara

A

1

0

W

U

N


Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Portimonense

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Boavista

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Nov

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Porto and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Porto

24%

33%

24%

19%

Rio Ave

51%

24%

22%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 2.23 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 1.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 1.38 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.87

1

4.42

2-3

2.06

2

3.98

4+

5.99

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

9.17

Un 1.5

2.87

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.67

Ov 3.5

5.99

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.06

2.85

6.11

2-3 goals

1.77

6.15

3.65

4+ goals

1.90

2.88

7.95

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.77

4.24

Un 1.5

2.06

2.85

6.11

Ov 2.5

1.66

6.93

3.94

Un 2.5

2.07

2.98

5.50

Ov 3.5

1.90

2.88

7.95

Un 3.5

1.88

4.15

4.39

Goal-Goal

2.60

2.73

4.02

No Goal

1.62

5.14

5.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.09

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

5.14

4.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tondela vs Farense at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

2.62

2.00

11.8

Draw

3.16

3.79

-5.3

Farense

2.71

4.24

-13.3

Over 2.5

2.18

2.27

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.68

1.79

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela (11.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same .
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Boavista

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Jan

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Nacional

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Dec

Porto

A

3

4

L

O

G

27 Nov

Guimaraes

H

0

2

L

U

N


Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

25 Jan

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Portimonense

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Maritimo

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Nov

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Boavista

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

23%

33%

24%

20%

Farense

41%

35%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.16 goals and Farense to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.41 goals and Farense to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Tondela to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.24

1

4.65

2-3

2.05

2

3.98

4+

4.90

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.24

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.29