Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sabadell vs Logrones at 01 February 2021
Leganes vs Lugo at 01 February 2021
Zaragoza vs Ponferradina at 29 January 2021
Oviedo vs Albacete at 30 January 2021
Alcorcon vs Malaga at 30 January 2021
Almeria vs Castellon at 30 January 2021
Mallorca vs Girona at 30 January 2021
Espanol vs Vallecano at 31 January 2021
Tenerife vs Fuenlabrada at 31 January 2021
Sp Gijon vs Cartagena at 31 January 2021
Mirandes vs Las Palmas at 31 January 2021
Sabadell vs Logrones at 01 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sabadell |
2.38 |
2.28 |
1.8 |
|
Draw |
2.82 |
3.56 |
-7.4 |
|
Logrones |
3.43 |
3.55 |
-1.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.38 |
2.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.73 |
-8.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (1.8 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Logrones in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance as a guest.
Logrones, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Espanol |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sabadell |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |
|
Logrones |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.15 goals and Logrones to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.28 goals and Logrones to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.21 |
|
1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.26 |
|
3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
7.69 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |
|
5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |
|
NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.39 |
3.28 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.86 |
3.64 |
|
4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.17 |
3.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.64 |
3.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.39 |
3.28 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.02 |
3.05 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.62 |
4.02 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.17 |
3.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.67 |
3.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.53 |
4.09 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
5.67 |
3.16 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.82 |
2.98 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.67 |
3.12 |
Go to Top
Leganes vs Lugo at 01 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leganes and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leganes |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.79 |
-3.8 |
|
Lugo |
4.87 |
4.29 |
2.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.19 |
8.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.45 |
1.84 |
-14.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leganes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance at home.
Leganes, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Lugo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Tenerife |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leganes and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leganes |
20% |
34% |
26% |
19% |
|
Lugo |
38% |
36% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.32 goals and Lugo to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.44 goals and Lugo to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.56 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.76 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.80 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.06 |
4.42 |
|
4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.39 |
4.77 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.52 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.80 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.35 |
3.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
2.69 |
4.89 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.39 |
4.77 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.98 |
3.91 |
4.17 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.64 |
4.62 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
6.56 |
4.01 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.95 |
3.45 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.56 |
3.77 |
Go to Top
Zaragoza vs Ponferradina at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Zaragoza |
2.11 |
2.25 |
-2.9 |
|
Draw |
3.04 |
3.58 |
-5.0 |
|
Ponferradina |
3.86 |
3.62 |
1.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.35 |
3.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.74 |
-7.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Ponferradina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Leganes |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Zaragoza |
25% |
35% |
25% |
15% |
|
Ponferradina |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.25 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.3 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.25 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.24 |
|
3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |
|
5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |
|
NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.87 |
3.72 |
|
4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.65 |
3.79 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.42 |
3.31 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
7.05 |
3.16 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.63 |
4.08 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.18 |
3.98 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.68 |
3.56 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.53 |
4.20 |
|
No Goal |
1.94 |
5.77 |
3.22 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.83 |
3.07 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.77 |
3.16 |
Go to Top
Oviedo vs Albacete at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oviedo and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oviedo |
1.82 |
1.89 |
-2.0 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.89 |
-4.5 |
|
Albacete |
4.74 |
4.67 |
0.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.15 |
7.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.87 |
-12.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (0.3 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance at home.
Oviedo, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Mallorca |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Tenerife |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Nov |
Almeria |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Albacete in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Alcorcon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Girona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oviedo |
18% |
34% |
27% |
21% |
|
Albacete |
40% |
36% |
18% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.36 goals and Albacete to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.5 goals and Albacete to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.65 |
|
1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.61 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.03 |
3.75 |