2021 01 29 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Torino vs Fiorentina at 29 January 2021
Inter vs Benevento at 30 January 2021
Sampdoria vs Juventus at 30 January 2021
Bologna vs Milan at 30 January 2021
Cagliari vs Sassuolo at 31 January 2021
Crotone vs Genoa at 31 January 2021
Napoli vs Parma at 31 January 2021
Roma vs Verona at 31 January 2021
Spezia vs Udinese at 31 January 2021
Atalanta vs Lazio at 31 January 2021


Torino vs Fiorentina at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.79

2.10

11.8

Draw

3.21

3.83

-5.0

Fiorentina

2.67

3.82

-11.3

Over 2.5

2.23

1.97

5.9

Under 2.5

1.67

2.03

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino, Over 2.5 (11.8 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Dec

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G


Fiorentina in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance as a guest.
Fiorentina, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Crotone

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Napoli

A

0

6

L

O

N

10 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Bologna

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Juventus

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

25%

19%

38%

18%

Fiorentina

37%

27%

26%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.11 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.48 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

4.27

1

7.14

2-3

1.99

2

3.86

4+

3.77

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.27

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.30

2.49

3.39

2-3 goals

1.61

9.67

3.62

4+ goals

2.82

2.30

4.73

Ov 1.5

1.89

4.60

3.94

Un 1.5

3.30

2.49

3.39

Ov 2.5

1.93

4.43

3.92

Un 2.5

2.31

3.38

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.82

2.30

4.73

Un 3.5

1.92

5.05

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.81

4.48

No Goal

1.91

5.66

3.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.11

3.63

3.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.66

3.29


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Inter vs Benevento at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Inter and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Inter

1.26

2.20

-33.9

Draw

6.40

3.27

15.0

Benevento

11.15

4.18

15.0

Over 2.5

1.43

2.24

-25.3

Under 2.5

2.76

1.81

19.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Benevento, Under 2.5 (15 %, 15 %, 19 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Inter in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance at home.
Inter, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Udinese

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Jan

Juventus

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Sampdoria

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Crotone

H

6

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Napoli

H

1

0

W

U

N


Benevento in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Jan

Torino

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Atalanta

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Genoa

H

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Inter and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Inter

29%

14%

43%

15%

Benevento

49%

11%

32%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 2.77 goals and Benevento to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.3 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 2.24 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.44 goals and Benevento to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.14

0-1

4.22

1

10.31

2-3

1.99

2

3.16

4+

3.82

3

5.38

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.22

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.73

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

1.57

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.59

1.69

7.65

2-3 goals

1.54

35.86

3.10

4+ goals

4.09

1.74

5.57

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.63

3.66

Un 1.5

3.59

1.69

7.65

Ov 2.5

2.46

2.97

3.90

Un 2.5

2.02

3.59

4.42

Ov 3.5

4.09

1.74

5.57

Un 3.5

1.89

4.80

3.83

Goal-Goal

3.33

2.22

4.02

No Goal

1.84

4.54

4.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.20

2.33

3.87

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.54

4.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sampdoria vs Juventus at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

6.74

2.92

19.4

Draw

4.38

3.06

9.8

Juventus

1.50

3.02

-33.6

Over 2.5

1.62

2.20

-16.3

Under 2.5

2.29

1.83

11.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sampdoria, Draw, Under 2.5 (19.4 %, 9.8 %, 11 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Udinese

H

2

1

W

O

G

11 Jan

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Inter

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Sassuolo

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Crotone

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Sassuolo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Milan

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Udinese

H

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Fiorentina

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Parma

A

4

0

W

O

N

16 Dec

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

37%

8%

47%

8%

Juventus

40%

12%

33%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 0.73 goals and Juventus to score 2.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.26 goals and Juventus to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.67

0-1

4.46

1

13.51

2-3

2.04

2

3.11

4+

3.50

3

5.92

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.65

Un 1.5

4.46

5

10.31

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.66

Ov 3.5

3.50

NoG

1.60

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

7.47

1.49

5.09

2-3 goals

1.78

54.56

2.38

4+ goals

7.94

1.69

3.53

Ov 1.5

2.49

4.37

2.71

Un 1.5

7.47

1.49

5.09

Ov 2.5

3.67

2.69

2.81

Un 2.5

2.50

3.43

3.23

Ov 3.5

7.94

1.69

3.53

Un 3.5

2.34

4.50

2.86

Goal-Goal

4.09

2.11

3.55

No Goal

2.50

4.17

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.99

2.17

3.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

4.17

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bologna vs Milan at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bologna

4.12

3.04

8.6

Draw

3.79

3.79

0.0

Milan

1.86

2.46

-13.1

Over 2.5

1.73

2.00

-7.8

Under 2.5

2.13

2.00

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bologna, Under 2.5 (8.6 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bologna in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Jan

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Atalanta

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Spezia

A

2

2

D

O

G


Milan in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 92.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Jan

Atalanta

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Torino

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Benevento

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lazio

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bologna

34%

24%

31%

11%

Milan

30%

24%

27%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 0.99 goals and Milan to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.19 goals and Milan to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.91

1

6.49

2-3

2.08

2

4.12

4+

3.79

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.91

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG