Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Reggina vs Salernitana at 01 February 2021
Vicenza vs Venezia at 29 January 2021
Virtus Entella vs Cosenza at 30 January 2021
Pordenone vs Lecce at 30 January 2021
Ascoli vs Brescia at 30 January 2021
Empoli vs Frosinone at 30 January 2021
Pisa vs Reggiana at 30 January 2021
Spal vs Monza at 31 January 2021
Chievo vs Pescara at 31 January 2021
Cittadella vs Cremonese at 31 January 2021
Reggina vs Salernitana at 01 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Reggina and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 01 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Reggina |
2.17 |
2.19 |
-0.4 |
|
Draw |
3.18 |
3.83 |
-5.3 |
|
Salernitana |
3.42 |
3.55 |
-1.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.08 |
1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.93 |
-6.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Reggina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance at home.
Reggina, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Lecce |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Salernitana in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance as a guest.
Salernitana, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggina and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Reggina |
25% |
26% |
36% |
13% |
|
Salernitana |
32% |
38% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.35 goals and Salernitana to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Reggina to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggina to score 1.38 goals and Salernitana to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.89 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.13 |
3.21 |
2.71 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.74 |
5.34 |
4.21 |
|
4+ goals |
2.99 |
2.67 |
3.45 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.10 |
3.95 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
3.21 |
2.71 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.71 |
3.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.93 |
3.63 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.99 |
2.67 |
3.45 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
4.38 |
3.56 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.81 |
4.46 |
|
No Goal |
2.03 |
6.12 |
2.90 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
4.90 |
3.61 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.12 |
2.95 |
Go to Top
Vicenza vs Venezia at 29 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Vicenza and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 29 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Vicenza |
3.00 |
2.53 |
6.2 |
|
Draw |
2.91 |
3.58 |
-6.4 |
|
Venezia |
2.85 |
3.07 |
-2.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.21 |
3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.83 |
-7.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Vicenza, Over 2.5 (6.2 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Vicenza in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance at home.
Vicenza, at home, had one win, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Venezia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Reggina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vicenza and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Vicenza |
26% |
34% |
28% |
12% |
|
Venezia |
30% |
38% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.07 goals and Venezia to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vicenza to score 1.25 goals and Venezia to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.57 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.74 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.59 |
2.80 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.26 |
3.89 |
3.33 |
|
4+ goals |
3.15 |
2.97 |
2.89 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.56 |
3.19 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.59 |
2.80 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.37 |
2.61 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.62 |
3.58 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
2.97 |
2.89 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.78 |
3.12 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.56 |
3.65 |
|
No Goal |
2.19 |
6.18 |
2.62 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.45 |
2.73 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.18 |
2.73 |
Go to Top
Virtus Entella vs Cosenza at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Cosenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Virtus Entella |
2.55 |
2.67 |
-1.8 |
|
Draw |
2.98 |
3.38 |
-4.0 |
|
Cosenza |
2.96 |
3.04 |
-0.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.37 |
-1.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.73 |
-3.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Virtus Entella in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
22 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
Cosenza in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cosenza in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance as a guest.
Cosenza, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cosenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Monza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Pescara |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Ascoli |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Cosenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Virtus Entella |
27% |
38% |
25% |
11% |
|
Cosenza |
28% |
43% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.16 goals and Cosenza to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.19 goals and Cosenza to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.39 |
|
1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.52 |
4+ |
5.35 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
|
5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.35 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.99 |
2.54 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.54 |
3.15 |
3.46 |
|
4+ goals |
2.83 |
3.22 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.17 |
3.31 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.99 |
2.54 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.28 |
2.60 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.35 |
2.42 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.83 |
3.22 |
2.97 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.41 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.38 |
3.93 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.31 |
2.71 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.35 |
2.48 |
Go to Top
Pordenone vs Lecce at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Lecce for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pordenone |
2.97 |
2.40 |
8.0 |
|
Draw |
3.04 |
3.69 |
-5.8 |
|
Lecce |
2.50 |
3.22 |
-8.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.15 |
-5.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.87 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pordenone, Under 2.5 (8 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pordenone in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Reggiana |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Lecce in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance as a guest.
Lecce, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Lecce.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pordenone |
24% |
34% |
28% |
14% |
|
Lecce |
33% |
34% |
21% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.19 goals and Lecce to score 1.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.31 goals and Lecce to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.62 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.44 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |
|
NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |