# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Reggina vs Salernitana at 01 February 2021**** Vicenza vs Venezia at 29 January 2021**** Virtus Entella vs Cosenza at 30 January 2021**** Pordenone vs Lecce at 30 January 2021**** Ascoli vs Brescia at 30 January 2021**** Empoli vs Frosinone at 30 January 2021**** Pisa vs Reggiana at 30 January 2021**** Spal vs Monza at 31 January 2021**** Chievo vs Pescara at 31 January 2021**** Cittadella vs Cremonese at 31 January 2021**

###
Reggina vs Salernitana at 01 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Reggina** and **Salernitana** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **01 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Reggina |
2.17 |
2.19 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.18 |
3.83 |
-5.3 |

Salernitana |
3.42 |
3.55 |
-1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.08 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.93 |
-6.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Reggina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggina** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance** at home**.

Reggina,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggina scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Lecce |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** as a guest**.

Salernitana,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Reggina** and the red line for guest team, **Salernitana. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Reggina |
25% |
26% |
36% |
13% |

Salernitana |
32% |
38% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Reggina ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Reggina** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Salernitana** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.13 |
3.21 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
5.34 |
4.21 |

4+ goals |
2.99 |
2.67 |
3.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.10 |
3.95 |

Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
3.21 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.71 |
3.43 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.93 |
3.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.99 |
2.67 |
3.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
4.38 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.81 |
4.46 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
6.12 |
2.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
4.90 |
3.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.12 |
2.95 |

####
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###
Vicenza vs Venezia at 29 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vicenza** and **Venezia** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **29 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vicenza |
3.00 |
2.53 |
6.2 |

Draw |
2.91 |
3.58 |
-6.4 |

Venezia |
2.85 |
3.07 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.21 |
3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.83 |
-7.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vicenza, Over 2.5 (6.2 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** at home**.

Vicenza,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** as a guest**.

Venezia,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Reggina |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vicenza** and the red line for guest team, **Venezia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vicenza |
26% |
34% |
28% |
12% |

Venezia |
30% |
38% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vicenza** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.59 |
2.80 |

2-3 goals |
2.26 |
3.89 |
3.33 |

4+ goals |
3.15 |
2.97 |
2.89 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.56 |
3.19 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.59 |
2.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.37 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.62 |
3.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
2.97 |
2.89 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.78 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.56 |
3.65 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
6.18 |
2.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.45 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.18 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Virtus Entella vs Cosenza at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Virtus Entella** and **Cosenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Virtus Entella |
2.55 |
2.67 |
-1.8 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.38 |
-4.0 |

Cosenza |
2.96 |
3.04 |
-0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.37 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.73 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** at home**.

Virtus Entella,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

**Cosenza** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cosenza** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cosenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Cosenza,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cosenza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cosenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Monza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Pescara |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Ascoli |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Virtus Entella** and the red line for guest team, **Cosenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Virtus Entella |
27% |
38% |
25% |
11% |

Cosenza |
28% |
43% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Virtus Entella** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Cosenza** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.52 |
4+ |
5.35 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.35 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.99 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.54 |
3.15 |
3.46 |

4+ goals |
2.83 |
3.22 |
2.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.17 |
3.31 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.99 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.28 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
3.35 |
2.42 |
3.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.83 |
3.22 |
2.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.41 |
3.06 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.38 |
3.93 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.35 |
2.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.31 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
6.35 |
2.48 |

####
Go to Top

###
Pordenone vs Lecce at 30 Jan 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pordenone** and **Lecce** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **30 Jan 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pordenone |
2.97 |
2.40 |
8.0 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.69 |
-5.8 |

Lecce |
2.50 |
3.22 |
-8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.15 |
-5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.87 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pordenone, Under 2.5 (8 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** at home**.

Pordenone,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Reggiana |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Lecce** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lecce** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance** as a guest**.

Lecce,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Salernitana |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pordenone** and the red line for guest team, **Lecce. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pordenone |
24% |
34% |
28% |
14% |

Lecce |
33% |
34% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Lecce** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Lecce** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |