Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris at 30 January 2021
Larisa vs Volos NFC at 30 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Lamia at 30 January 2021
Apollon vs Olympiakos at 31 January 2021
PAOK vs Panetolikos at 31 January 2021
Giannina vs Atromitos at 31 January 2021
OFI Crete vs AEK at 31 January 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
2.70 |
2.28 |
6.8 |
|
Draw |
3.12 |
3.70 |
-5.0 |
|
Aris |
2.55 |
3.42 |
-10.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.39 |
1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.72 |
-7.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Dec |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Aris in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
31% |
28% |
27% |
15% |
|
Aris |
41% |
34% |
11% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.03 goals and Aris to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.25 goals and Aris to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.87 |
0-1 |
2.89 |
|
1 |
4.57 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
|
2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
5.13 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |
|
4 |
8.40 |
Un 1.5 |
2.89 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
|
Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |
|
NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.01 |
2.72 |
3.33 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.78 |
4.95 |
4.26 |
|
4+ goals |
3.00 |
3.90 |
2.44 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
4.58 |
3.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
2.72 |
3.33 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
8.38 |
2.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.65 |
4.25 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.00 |
3.90 |
2.44 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.66 |
3.80 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.85 |
3.70 |
|
No Goal |
2.08 |
4.68 |
3.26 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.28 |
2.85 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
4.68 |
3.57 |
Go to Top
Larisa vs Volos NFC at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Larisa and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Larisa |
2.50 |
2.68 |
-2.7 |
|
Draw |
3.04 |
3.29 |
-2.5 |
|
Volos NFC |
3.02 |
3.10 |
-0.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.99 |
-9.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.50 |
4.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance at home.
Larisa, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Larisa and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Larisa |
38% |
32% |
21% |
9% |
|
Volos NFC |
42% |
34% |
13% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.17 goals and Volos NFC to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Larisa to score 1.01 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
6.37 |
0-1 |
2.39 |
|
1 |
3.82 |
2-3 |
2.27 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
7.14 |
|
3 |
5.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.72 |
|
4 |
10.64 |
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
|
5 |
27.78 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.99 |
|
6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.50 |
|
Gg |
2.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
7.14 |
|
NoG |
1.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.16 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.08 |
2.67 |
3.33 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.24 |
4.08 |
3.24 |
|
4+ goals |
3.41 |
3.68 |
2.30 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.98 |
2.95 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.08 |
2.67 |
3.33 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
8.79 |
2.27 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.51 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |
3.68 |
2.30 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.25 |
3.28 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.23 |
2.48 |
3.48 |
|
No Goal |
2.44 |
4.06 |
2.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.68 |
2.44 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
4.06 |
3.17 |
Go to Top
Panathinaikos vs Lamia at 30 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 30 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Panathinaikos |
1.38 |
1.66 |
-12.2 |
|
Draw |
4.30 |
4.12 |
1.0 |
|
Lamia |
8.93 |
6.45 |
4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.26 |
0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.79 |
-5.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lamia, Over 2.5 (1 %, 4.3 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance at home.
Panathinaikos, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Aris |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Giannina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Lamia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 9.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Panathinaikos |
19% |
34% |
18% |
29% |
|
Lamia |
50% |
34% |
12% |
4% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.74 goals and Lamia to score 0.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.57 goals and Lamia to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.03 |
|
1 |
4.24 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
5.38 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
|
4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.03 |
|
5 |
24.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
|
Gg |
2.48 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |
|
NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.91 |
3.51 |
5.24 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.64 |
4.13 |
6.80 |
|
4+ goals |
1.41 |
5.64 |
8.86 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
4.46 |
7.27 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.91 |
3.51 |
5.24 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.30 |
13.36 |
6.30 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.64 |
6.56 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.41 |
5.64 |
8.86 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
3.85 |
6.07 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.10 |
2.69 |
6.52 |
|
No Goal |
1.46 |
6.33 |
6.40 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
8.70 |
4.63 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.33 |
5.19 |
Go to Top
Apollon vs Olympiakos at 31 Jan 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 31 Jan 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Apollon |
13.53 |
3.80 |
18.9 |
|
Draw |
6.12 |
3.42 |
12.9 |
|
Olympiakos |
1.18 |
2.25 |
-40.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.82 |
-23.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.55 |
16.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.9 %, 12.9 %, 16.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
AEK |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
Olympiakos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Olympiakos in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Olympiakos’s performance as a guest.
Olympiakos, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 21 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Olympiakos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Olympiakos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
AEK |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Larisa |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Olympiakos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Apollon |
42% |
42% |
9% |
8% |
|
Olympiakos |
34% |
29% |
23% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.39 goals and Olympiakos to score 2.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 1.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 0.83 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the guest team Olympiakos to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.14 |
0-1 |
2.49 |
|
1 |
3.83 |
2-3 |
2.21 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
6.80 |
|
3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.67 |
|
4 |
9.62 |
Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
|
5 |
32.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.82 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.55 |
|
Gg |
2.58 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.80 |
|
NoG |
1.63 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.84 |
2.86 |
3.34 |
|
2-3 goals |