2021 01 30 Greek Basket League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Larissa BC vs AEK Athens at 30 January 2021
Peristeri vs Ionikos Nikaias at 30 January 2021
GS Lavrio vs PAOK at 30 January 2021
Mesologgi BC vs Kolossos Rhodes at 30 January 2021
Panathinaikos vs Promitheas at 31 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Larissa BC vs AEK Athens at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Larissa BC	3.4	3.86
AEK Athens	1.32	1.35
Larissa BC HC	+7.5	7.00
AEK Athens HC	-7.5	-7.00
Point Line	158.5	154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 24	H	Panathinaikos	L	89	98	3	9	L 2	95	86
Jan 11	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	58	66	3	8	L 1	61	64
Jan 6	H	Promitheas Patras	W	85	81	3	7	W 1	83	83
Jan 2	A	Iraklis B.C.	L	69	73	2	7	L 1	70	78
Dec 27	H	Messolonghi	W	84	58	2	6	W 1	82	62
Dec 19	A	Peristeri	L	78	82	1	6	L 3	80	85
Dec 16	H	Aris	L	84	88	1	5	L 2	81	90
Dec 12	H	Ionikos Nikaias	L	76	97	1	4	L 1	72	98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 27	H	P.A.O.K.	W	76	56	10	3	W 2	72	55
Jan 23	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	81	74	9	3	W 1	77	75
Jan 16	H	Promitheas Patras	L	75	82	8	3	L 2	74	84
Jan 10	A	Panathinaikos	L	75	80	8	2	L 1	80	70
Jan 2	H	Kolossos Rodou	W	89	72	8	1	W 1	90	71
Dec 27	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	7	1	L 1	73	76
Dec 20	H	Aris	W	84	67	7	0	W 6	81	68
Dec 12	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	79	72	6	0	W 5	80	77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Larissa BC (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Larissa BC will expected to score 74 points and the AEK Athens 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Larissa BC	AEK Athens
FG%	0.54	0.52
ASS	14.30	16.90
DRB	22.20	22.00
AST-TO	0.91	1.29
TRB	31.40	31.80
FTM	13.30	16.50
BL	1.60	3.00
FTA	17.90	22.20
PF-Fewer	22.00	23.20
ST	6.40	6.40
TO-Fewer	15.80	13.10
Ftper	0.74	0.75
ORBper	0.42	0.45
ORB	9.30	9.80

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Peristeri vs Ionikos Nikaias at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peristeri and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Peristeri	1.24	1.38
Ionikos Nikaias	4.15	3.63
Peristeri HC	-8.5	-6.50
Ionikos Nikaias HC	+8.5	6.50
Point Line	152.5	148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Kolossos Rodou	L	65	80	7	5	L 1	66	79
Jan 9	A	Aris	W	84	71	7	4	W 2	81	72
Jan 3	H	P.A.O.K.	W	76	67	6	4	W 1	72	66
Dec 26	A	Promitheas Patras	L	58	75	5	4	L 1	57	77
Dec 19	H	Larisa	W	82	78	5	3	W 1	77	78
Dec 13	A	Panathinaikos	L	57	76	4	3	L 2	61	66
Dec 5	H	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	78	4	2	L 1	73	76
Nov 22	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	75	71	4	1	W 2	76	76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	AEK Athens	L	74	81	4	8	L 2	80	77
Jan 9	A	Kolossos Rodou	L	74	94	4	7	L 1	75	92
Jan 3	H	Aris	W	68	64	4	6	W 1	66	65
Dec 27	A	P.A.O.K.	L	84	86	3	6	L 1	80	84
Dec 19	H	Promitheas Patras	W	86	77	3	5	W 2	84	79
Dec 12	A	Larisa	W	97	76	2	5	W 1	91	76
Dec 6	H	Panathinaikos	L	53	79	1	5	L 1	57	69
Nov 22	A	Lavrio B.C.	W	91	81	1	4	W 1	95	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Peristeri (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Peristeri will expected to score 76 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Var	Peristeri	Ionikos Nikaias
FG%	0.48	0.50
ASS	15.80	14.30
DRB	25.50	22.20
AST-TO	1.21	1.07
TRB	33.60	31.20
FTM	16.30	11.60
BL	2.50	1.40
FTA	21.20	15.40
PF-Fewer	20.10	20.70
ST	5.40	7.60
TO-Fewer	13.10	13.40
Ftper	0.77	0.75
ORBper	0.32	0.41
ORB	8.10	9.00

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GS Lavrio vs PAOK at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
GS Lavrio	1.47	1.56
PAOK	2.7	2.79
GS Lavrio HC	-5.5	-4.50
PAOK HC	+5.5	4.50
Point Line	155.5	150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Promitheas Patras	L	88	90	8	4	L 1	86	93
Jan 20	H	Promitheas Patras	W	75	72	8	3	W 8	74	74
Jan 11	A	Larisa	W	66	58	7	3	W 7	62	58
Jan 3	H	Panathinaikos	W	92	82	6	3	W 6	99	72
Dec 27	H	AEK Athens	W	78	70	5	3	W 5	84	67
Dec 19	A	Iraklis B.C.	W	77	60	4	3	W 4	78	64
Dec 12	H	Messolonghi	W	87	70	3	3	W 3	85	75
Dec 9	H	Aris	W	92	71	2	3	W 2	89	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 27	A	AEK Athens	L	56	76	6	7	L 1	60	72
Jan 23	H	Iraklis B.C.	W	79	72	6	6	W 2	80	77
Jan 9	H	Messolonghi	W	96	87	5	6	W 1	94	93
Jan 3	A	Peristeri	L	67	76	4	6	L 1	68	79
Dec 27	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	86	84	4	5	W 3	82	85
Dec 19	A	Kolossos Rodou	W	85	84	3	5	W 2	86	83
Dec 13	H	Aris	W	75	64	2	5	W 1	72	65
Dec 9	H	Larisa	L	91	93	1	5	L 3	85	93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 79 points and the PAOK 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Var	GS Lavrio	PAOK
FG%	0.54	0.53
ASS	16.70	14.50
DRB	21.20	22.00
AST-TO	1.23	1.01
TRB	29.00	29.70
FTM	13.30	14.60
BL	2.40	1.80
FTA	18.90	19.10
PF-Fewer	22.60	23.60
ST	8.40	7.90
TO-Fewer	13.60	14.40
Ftper	0.70	0.77
ORBper	0.37	0.35
ORB	7.80	7.70

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Mesologgi BC vs Kolossos Rhodes at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mesologgi BC and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Mesologgi BC	2.55	3.5
Kolossos Rhodes	1.53	1.4
Mesologgi BC HC	+3.5	6.0
Kolossos Rhodes HC	-3.5	-6.0
Point Line	149.5	149.0

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Aris	L	48	77	3	9	L 9	46	78
Jan 9	A	P.A.O.K.	L	87	96	3	8	L 8	82	94
Jan 3	H	Promitheas Patras	L	82	88	3	7	L 7	80	91
Dec 27	A	Larisa	L	58	84	3	6	L 6	54	84
Dec 20	H	Panathinaikos	L	66	73	3	5	L 5	71	64
Dec 12	A	Lavrio B.C.	L	70	87	3	4	L 4	73	84
Dec 5	H	Iraklis B.C.	L	68	71	3	3	L 3	69	76
Nov 21	H	AEK Athens	L	66	87	3	2	L 2	71	83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	H	Peristeri	W	80	65	5	7	W 2	82	68
Jan 9	H	Ionikos Nikaias	W	94	74	4	7	W 1	90	75
Jan 2	A	AEK Athens	L	72	89	3	7	L 1	77	85
Dec 26	A	Aris	W	84	74	3	6	W 1	81	75
Dec 19	H	P.A.O.K.	L	84	85	2	6	L 2	80	83
Dec 13	A	Promitheas Patras	L	67	69	2	5	L 1	66	71
Dec 5	H	Larisa	W	90	64	2	4	W 1	84	64
Nov 22	A	Panathinaikos	L	67	90	1	4	L 2	72	79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mesologgi BC (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mesologgi BC will expected to score 73 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Var	Mesologgi BC	Kolossos Rhodes
FG%	0.52	0.54
ASS	14.60	17.30
DRB	23.30	24.90
AST-TO	0.95	1.26
TRB	29.90	31.50
FTM	13.70	13.80
BL	1.70	1.50
FTA	19.10	19.00
PF-Fewer	19.10	22.70
ST	5.30	6.20
TO-Fewer	15.40	13.70
Ftper	0.72	0.73
ORBper	0.28	0.27
ORB	6.60	6.60

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Panathinaikos vs Promitheas at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Promitheas for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Panathinaikos	1.12	1.38
Promitheas	6.5	3.67
Panathinaikos HC	-11.5	-6.50
Promitheas HC	+11.5	6.50
Point Line	165.5	150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 24	A	Larisa	W	98	89	10	1	W 3	92	89
Jan 17	A	Aris	W	93	75	9	1	W 2	90	76
Jan 10	H	AEK Athens	W	80	75	8	1	W 1	86	72
Jan 3	A