2021 01 30 ABA Adriatic League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

FMP vs Buducnost at 30 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



FMP vs Buducnost at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FMP and Buducnost for ABA Adriatic League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

FMP

2.9

1.76

Buducnost

1.4

2.32

FMP HC

+4.5

-2.50

Buducnost HC

-4.5

2.50

Point Line

159.5

176.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of FMP are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 15

H

KK Split

W

96

92

3

8

W 2

101

103

Dec 30

H

Cedevita Olimpija

W

91

88

2

8

W 1

99

82

Dec 25

H

Mega Basket

L

91

92

1

8

L 5

101

96

Dec 15

H

KK Zadar

L

89

99

1

7

L 4

100

112

Dec 12

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

75

111

1

6

L 3

89

112

Dec 9

A

KK Igokea

L

74

84

1

5

L 2

80

82

Dec 4

A

Cibona Zagreb

L

80

93

1

4

L 1

82

96

Nov 2

H

Borac Cacak

W

93

87

1

3

W 1

98

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buducnost are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

Borac Cacak

W

76

72

9

3

W 1

80

77

Jan 21

A

Cedevita Olimpija

L

84

95

8

3

L 1

91

88

Jan 16

H

Partizan NIS

W

80

72

8

2

W 1

87

76

Jan 9

A

KK Split

L

77

78

7

2

L 1

81

87

Dec 25

H

KK Krka

W

70

62

7

1

W 1

76

69

Dec 20

A

Mega Basket

L

72

78

6

1

L 1

80

81

Dec 6

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

67

65

6

0

W 5

79

66

Nov 22

H

Cibona Zagreb

W

87

68

5

0

W 4

89

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by FMP and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buducnost.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buducnost and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by FMP.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by FMP (in the first graph) and by Buducnost in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, FMP will expected to score 86 points and the Buducnost 91 points. The total points line estimated to be at 177.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

FMP

Buducnost

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

19.10

13.20

DRB

25.90

20.60

AST-TO

1.31

1.06

TRB

37.90

29.40

FTM

17.20

19.00

BL

2.10

2.40

FTA

24.50

23.00

PF-Fewer

27.60

20.00

ST

7.70

6.60

TO-Fewer

14.60

12.50

Ftper

0.70

0.83

ORBper

0.46

0.43

ORB

12.00

8.80


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