2021 01 30 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bourg vs Orleans at 30 January 2021
Roanne vs Metropolitans 92 at 30 January 2021
Monaco vs Le Portel at 30 January 2021
Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Chalons-Reims at 30 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bourg vs Orleans at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bourg and Orleans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bourg

1.29

1.57

Orleans

3.65

2.75

Bourg HC

-7.5

-4.50

Orleans HC

+7.5

4.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bourg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Elan Bearnais

W

83

76

6

2

W 1

81

77

Dec 26

A

Dijon

L

71

80

5

2

L 1

77

80

Dec 22

H

Le Mans

W

98

78

5

1

W 1

97

73

Dec 19

A

Limoges

L

72

74

4

1

L 1

75

79

Nov 14

A

Paris Levallois

W

79

76

4

0

W 3

84

73

Oct 4

A

ASVEL

W

104

102

3

0

W 2

105

91

Sep 27

H

Roanne

W

80

63

2

0

W 1

76

69

Sep 23

A

Nanterre

W

95

82

1

0

W 0

98

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Orleans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 19

A

Le Portel

L

84

85

3

4

L 1

82

90

Dec 12

H

Elan Bearnais

W

85

75

3

3

W 1

83

76

Nov 8

A

ASVEL

L

83

93

2

3

L 1

84

83

Oct 17

H

Chalons-Reims

W

99

79

2

2

W 1

92

82

Oct 10

A

Elan Chalon

L

80

83

1

2

L 2

78

90

Oct 7

A

Strasbourg

L

91

97

1

1

L 1

89

92

Sep 26

H

Cholet

W

101

63

1

0

W 0

95

63

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bourg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Orleans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Orleans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bourg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bourg (in the first graph) and by Orleans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bourg will expected to score 84 points and the Orleans 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bourg

Orleans

FG%

0.57

0.57

ASS

18.60

18.30

DRB

24.30

22.90

AST-TO

1.51

1.34

TRB

34.10

31.40

FTM

10.90

17.70

BL

2.40

2.00

FTA

14.60

22.40

PF-Fewer

18.30

19.70

ST

7.10

8.40

TO-Fewer

12.30

13.70

Ftper

0.74

0.79

ORBper

0.41

0.38

ORB

9.90

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Roanne vs Metropolitans 92 at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roanne and Metropolitans 92 for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Roanne

4.15

2.55

Metropolitans 92

1.24

1.65

Roanne HC

+8.5

3.50

Metropolitans 92 HC

-8.5

-3.50

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Strasbourg

L

78

82

2

5

L 2

76

78

Dec 20

H

Dijon

L

81

91

2

4

L 1

88

91

Dec 15

A

Elan Chalon

W

85

80

2

3

W 2

83

87

Oct 16

H

Cholet

W

96

88

1

3

W 1

91

88

Oct 9

A

BCM Gravelines

L

43

77

0

3

L 2

43

81

Oct 3

A

Monaco

L

61

86

0

2

L 1

71

83

Sep 27

A

JL Bourg

L

63

80

0

1

L 0

64

76

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Metropolitans 92 are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

Chalons-Reims

W

87

73

8

2

W 1

81

76

Dec 26

A

Le Mans

L

88

95

7

2

L 1

87

89

Dec 19

H

Boulazac

W

98

79

7

1

W 2

87

84

Nov 22

H

Nanterre

W

73

67

6

1

W 1

76

68

Nov 14

H

JL Bourg

L

76

79

5

1

L 1

77

75

Nov 7

H

Elan Bearnais

W

84

77

5

0

W 4

82

78

Oct 26

H

Limoges

W

82

76

4

0

W 3

85

81

Oct 2

H

Cholet

W

72

68

3

0

W 2

68

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Metropolitans 92.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Metropolitans 92 and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Roanne (in the first graph) and by Metropolitans 92 in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Roanne will expected to score 76 points and the Metropolitans 92 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Roanne

Metropolitans 92

FG%

0.52

0.58

ASS

14.00

20.40

DRB

17.90

21.00

AST-TO

0.85

2.08

TRB

26.30

28.70

FTM

13.90

12.40

BL

2.90

3.10

FTA

20.60

16.10

PF-Fewer

19.00

19.20

ST

8.40

6.80

TO-Fewer

16.40

9.80

Ftper

0.67

0.77

ORBper

0.47

0.37

ORB

8.40

7.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Monaco vs Le Portel at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Le Portel for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Monaco

1.1

1.63

Le Portel

7

2.59

Monaco HC

-13.5

-4.00

Le Portel HC

+13.5

4.00

Point Line

153.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 26

A

Boulazac

W

77

71

6

1

W 6

68

76

Dec 6

A

Elan Bearnais

W

90

86

5

1

W 5

88

87

Nov 21

H

Limoges

W

86

59

4

1

W 4

89

63

Nov 14

H

Dijon

W

70

62

3

1

W 3

76

62

Oct 17

H

Elan Chalon

W

90

60

2

1

W 2

88

65

Oct 3

H

Roanne

W

86

61

1

1

W 1

82

67

Sep 23

H

Paris Levallois

L

62

72

0

1

L 0

66

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Portel are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Nanterre

W

78

75

5

3

W 2

81

76

Dec 19

H

Orleans Loiret

W

85

84

4

3

W 1

82

74

Dec 14

A

ASVEL

L

66

101

3

3

L 1

66

90

Oct 24

A

Strasbourg

W

94

83

3

2

W 3

92

79

Oct 21

H

Chalons-Reims

W

78

76

2

2

W 2

73

79

Oct 17

A

Boulazac

W

71

70

1

2

W 1

63

75

Oct 9

H

Dijon

L

65

73

0

2

L 1

70

73

Oct 3

A

Limoges

L

68

91

0

1

L 0

70

97

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Portel.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Portel and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Monaco (in the first graph) and by Le Portel in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Monaco will expected to score 79 points and the Le Portel 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 152.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Monaco

Le Portel

FG%

0.54

0.55

ASS

16.70

18.90

DRB

23.30

22.00

AST-TO

1.34

1.45

TRB

34.80

29.30

FTM

16.50

11.90

BL

2.20

2.10

FTA

24.30

17.30

PF-Fewer

21.20

20.80

ST

11.70

7.30

TO-Fewer

12.50

13.00

Ftper

0.68

0.69

ORBper

0.49

0.33

ORB

11.50

7.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Pau-Lacq-Orthez vs Chalons-Reims at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pau-Lacq-Orthez and Chalons-Reims for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

1.3

4.41

Chalons-Reims

3.5

1.29

Pau-Lacq-Orthez HC

-7.5

7.50

Chalons-Reims HC

+7.5

-7.50

Point Line

163.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Pau-Lacq-Orthez are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

JL Bourg

L

76

83

3

6

L 5

77

79

Dec 19

A

Strasbourg

L

71

94

3

5

L 4

70

89

Dec 12

A

Orleans Loiret

L

75

85

3

4

L 3

73

75

Dec 6

H

Monaco

L

86

90

3

3

L 2

100

86

Nov 7

A

Paris Levallois

L

77

84

3

2

L 1

82

81

Oct 28

H

Le Mans

W

90

81

3

1

W 2

89

76

Oct 24

H

Boulazac

W

89

60

2

1

W 1

79

64

Oct 17

A

Dijon

L

71

87

1

1

L 1

77

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Chalons-Reims are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Paris Levallois

L

73

87

1

8

L 4

78

83

Dec 19

A

BCM Gravelines

L

80

84

1

7

L 3

80

88

Dec 12

H

Elan Chalon

L

78

87

1

6

L 2

76

94

Oct 27

A

Dijon

L

72

87

1

5

L 1

78

87

Oct 24

A

Le Mans

W

87

84

1

4

W 1

86

79

Oct 21

A

Le Portel

L

76

78

0

4

L 3

74

82

Oct 17

A

Orleans Loiret

L

79

99

0

3

L 2

77

88

Oct 10

H

Nanterre

L

74

83

0

2

L 1

77

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Chalons-Reims.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Chalons-Reims and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Pau-Lacq-Orthez.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Pau-Lacq-Orthez (in the first graph) and by Chalons-Reims in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Pau-Lacq-Orthez will expected to score 82 points and the Chalons-Reims 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Pau-Lacq-Orthez

Chalons-Reims

FG%

0.55

0.50

ASS

16.00

17.30

DRB

21.20

21.30

AST-TO

0.98

1.25

TRB

28.30

29.60

FTM

12.90

12.70

BL

1.20

2.40

FTA

17.00

18.10

PF-Fewer

20.30

16.40

ST

7.80

8.40

TO-Fewer

16.30

13.80

Ftper

0.76

0.70

ORBper

0.33

0.38

ORB

7.10

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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