BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Ironi Nahariya vs Maccabi Rishon at 30 January 2021
Bnei Herzliya vs Hapoel Holon at 30 January 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Ironi Nahariya vs Maccabi Rishon at 30 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Ironi Nahariya and Maccabi Rishon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Ironi Nahariya |
3.05 |
2.75 |
|
Maccabi Rishon |
1.36 |
1.57 |
|
Ironi Nahariya HC |
+5.5 |
4.50 |
|
Maccabi Rishon HC |
-5.5 |
-4.50 |
|
Point Line |
171.5 |
171.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ironi Nahariya are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 27 |
A |
Hapoel Holon |
L |
76 |
98 |
1 |
9 |
L 4 |
78 |
95 |
|
Dec 30 |
A |
Bnei Herzliya |
L |
88 |
104 |
1 |
8 |
L 3 |
83 |
100 |
|
Dec 27 |
H |
Hapoel Eilat |
L |
90 |
107 |
1 |
7 |
L 2 |
89 |
101 |
|
Dec 13 |
H |
Hapoel Tel Aviv |
L |
71 |
94 |
1 |
6 |
L 1 |
73 |
100 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Maccabi Haifa |
W |
110 |
102 |
1 |
5 |
W 1 |
98 |
108 |
|
Nov 29 |
H |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
L |
81 |
98 |
0 |
5 |
L 4 |
89 |
97 |
|
Nov 21 |
A |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
L |
80 |
104 |
0 |
4 |
L 3 |
83 |
101 |
|
Nov 12 |
H |
Hapoel Haifa |
L |
84 |
92 |
0 |
3 |
L 2 |
81 |
86 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Rishon are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 24 |
H |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
L |
62 |
70 |
4 |
5 |
L 2 |
64 |
68 |
|
Dec 30 |
H |
Hapoel Gilboa Galil |
L |
69 |
71 |
4 |
4 |
L 1 |
74 |
74 |
|
Dec 14 |
H |
Ironi Nes Ziona |
W |
79 |
74 |
4 |
3 |
W 2 |
82 |
77 |
|
Dec 10 |
A |
Hapoel Tel Aviv |
W |
91 |
85 |
3 |
3 |
W 1 |
94 |
90 |
|
Dec 6 |
A |
Hapoel Haifa |
L |
84 |
85 |
2 |
3 |
L 1 |
81 |
79 |
|
Nov 21 |
H |
Bnei Herzliya |
W |
93 |
85 |
2 |
2 |
W 1 |
88 |
82 |
|
Nov 15 |
A |
Hapoel Eilat |
L |
84 |
86 |
1 |
2 |
L 2 |
83 |
81 |
|
Nov 11 |
A |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
L |
84 |
98 |
1 |
1 |
L 1 |
87 |
95 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ironi Nahariya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Rishon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Rishon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ironi Nahariya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ironi Nahariya (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Rishon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ironi Nahariya will expected to score 83 points and the Maccabi Rishon 91 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Ironi Nahariya |
Maccabi Rishon |
|
FG% |
0.54 |
0.53 |
|
ASS |
14.90 |
17.40 |
|
DRB |
20.90 |
24.00 |
|
AST-TO |
1.17 |
1.45 |
|
TRB |
26.90 |
30.90 |
|
FTM |
18.40 |
16.00 |
|
BL |
1.60 |
1.70 |
|
FTA |
22.40 |
22.00 |
|
PF-Fewer |
16.80 |
19.30 |
|
ST |
3.80 |
7.20 |
|
TO-Fewer |
12.70 |
12.00 |
|
Ftper |
0.82 |
0.73 |
|
ORBper |
0.29 |
0.29 |
|
ORB |
6.00 |
6.90 |
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Bnei Herzliya vs Hapoel Holon at 30 January 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bnei Herzliya and Hapoel Holon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
|
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
|
Bnei Herzliya |
2.55 |
2.14 |
|
Hapoel Holon |
1.5 |
1.88 |
|
Bnei Herzliya HC |
+4.5 |
2.00 |
|
Hapoel Holon HC |
-4.5 |
-2.00 |
|
Point Line |
174.5 |
174.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bnei Herzliya are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 24 |
A |
Hapoel Eilat |
W |
98 |
84 |
3 |
8 |
W 1 |
97 |
79 |
|
Jan 3 |
A |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
L |
86 |
94 |
2 |
8 |
L 1 |
89 |
91 |
|
Dec 30 |
H |
Ironi Nahariya |
W |
104 |
88 |
2 |
7 |
W 2 |
90 |
94 |
|
Dec 24 |
H |
Maccabi Haifa |
W |
104 |
77 |
1 |
7 |
W 1 |
93 |
81 |
|
Dec 12 |
A |
Hapoel Jerusalem |
L |
86 |
96 |
0 |
7 |
L 6 |
88 |
92 |
|
Dec 7 |
H |
Hapoel Gilboa Galil |
L |
89 |
95 |
0 |
6 |
L 5 |
95 |
99 |
|
Nov 21 |
A |
Maccabi Rishon LeZion |
L |
85 |
93 |
0 |
5 |
L 4 |
87 |
95 |
|
Nov 15 |
H |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
L |
86 |
92 |
0 |
4 |
L 3 |
95 |
91 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:
|
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
|
Jan 27 |
H |
Ironi Nahariya |
W |
98 |
76 |
6 |
4 |
W 1 |
85 |
81 |
|
Jan 24 |
A |
Hapoel Haifa |
L |
85 |
96 |
5 |
4 |
L 1 |
82 |
89 |
|
Dec 29 |
H |
Hapoel Tel Aviv |
W |
77 |
63 |
5 |
3 |
W 5 |
80 |
67 |
|
Dec 23 |
H |
Hapoel Haifa |
W |
96 |
88 |
4 |
3 |
W 4 |
93 |
82 |
|
Dec 12 |
A |
Hapoel Be’er Sheva |
W |
89 |
86 |
3 |
3 |
W 3 |
93 |
83 |
|
Dec 9 |
H |
Maccabi Haifa |
W |
105 |
69 |
2 |
3 |
W 2 |
93 |
73 |
|
Dec 5 |
H |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
W |
79 |
76 |
1 |
3 |
W 1 |
87 |
75 |
|
Nov 22 |
A |
Hapoel Jerusalem |
L |
73 |
82 |
0 |
3 |
L 2 |
74 |
79 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bnei Herzliya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bnei Herzliya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bnei Herzliya (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bnei Herzliya will expected to score 86 points and the Hapoel Holon 88 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
|
Var |
Bnei Herzliya |
Hapoel Holon |
|
FG% |
0.58 |
0.58 |
|
ASS |
20.10 |
18.30 |
|
DRB |
22.30 |
21.00 |
|
AST-TO |
1.26 |
1.43 |
|
TRB |
29.10 |
28.00 |
|
FTM |
18.40 |
18.30 |
|
BL |
1.50 |
1.90 |
|
FTA |
24.40 |
22.20 |
|
PF-Fewer |
23.00 |
21.30 |
|
ST |
7.70 |
8.20 |
|
TO-Fewer |
16.00 |
12.80 |
|
Ftper |
0.75 |
0.82 |
|
ORBper |
0.30 |
0.33 |
|
ORB |
6.80 |
7.00 |
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