2021 01 30 Israeli Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ironi Nahariya vs Maccabi Rishon at 30 January 2021
Bnei Herzliya vs Hapoel Holon at 30 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Ironi Nahariya vs Maccabi Rishon at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ironi Nahariya and Maccabi Rishon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ironi Nahariya

3.05

2.75

Maccabi Rishon

1.36

1.57

Ironi Nahariya HC

+5.5

4.50

Maccabi Rishon HC

-5.5

-4.50

Point Line

171.5

171.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ironi Nahariya are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 27

A

Hapoel Holon

L

76

98

1

9

L 4

78

95

Dec 30

A

Bnei Herzliya

L

88

104

1

8

L 3

83

100

Dec 27

H

Hapoel Eilat

L

90

107

1

7

L 2

89

101

Dec 13

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

L

71

94

1

6

L 1

73

100

Dec 5

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

110

102

1

5

W 1

98

108

Nov 29

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

81

98

0

5

L 4

89

97

Nov 21

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

80

104

0

4

L 3

83

101

Nov 12

H

Hapoel Haifa

L

84

92

0

3

L 2

81

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Rishon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

H

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

62

70

4

5

L 2

64

68

Dec 30

H

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

69

71

4

4

L 1

74

74

Dec 14

H

Ironi Nes Ziona

W

79

74

4

3

W 2

82

77

Dec 10

A

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

91

85

3

3

W 1

94

90

Dec 6

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

84

85

2

3

L 1

81

79

Nov 21

H

Bnei Herzliya

W

93

85

2

2

W 1

88

82

Nov 15

A

Hapoel Eilat

L

84

86

1

2

L 2

83

81

Nov 11

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

84

98

1

1

L 1

87

95

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ironi Nahariya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Rishon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Rishon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ironi Nahariya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ironi Nahariya (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Rishon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ironi Nahariya will expected to score 83 points and the Maccabi Rishon 91 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ironi Nahariya

Maccabi Rishon

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

14.90

17.40

DRB

20.90

24.00

AST-TO

1.17

1.45

TRB

26.90

30.90

FTM

18.40

16.00

BL

1.60

1.70

FTA

22.40

22.00

PF-Fewer

16.80

19.30

ST

3.80

7.20

TO-Fewer

12.70

12.00

Ftper

0.82

0.73

ORBper

0.29

0.29

ORB

6.00

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bnei Herzliya vs Hapoel Holon at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bnei Herzliya and Hapoel Holon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bnei Herzliya

2.55

2.14

Hapoel Holon

1.5

1.88

Bnei Herzliya HC

+4.5

2.00

Hapoel Holon HC

-4.5

-2.00

Point Line

174.5

174.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bnei Herzliya are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Hapoel Eilat

W

98

84

3

8

W 1

97

79

Jan 3

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

86

94

2

8

L 1

89

91

Dec 30

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

104

88

2

7

W 2

90

94

Dec 24

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

104

77

1

7

W 1

93

81

Dec 12

A

Hapoel Jerusalem

L

86

96

0

7

L 6

88

92

Dec 7

H

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

89

95

0

6

L 5

95

99

Nov 21

A

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

L

85

93

0

5

L 4

87

95

Nov 15

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

86

92

0

4

L 3

95

91

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 27

H

Ironi Nahariya

W

98

76

6

4

W 1

85

81

Jan 24

A

Hapoel Haifa

L

85

96

5

4

L 1

82

89

Dec 29

H

Hapoel Tel Aviv

W

77

63

5

3

W 5

80

67

Dec 23

H

Hapoel Haifa

W

96

88

4

3

W 4

93

82

Dec 12

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

W

89

86

3

3

W 3

93

83

Dec 9

H

Maccabi Haifa

W

105

69

2

3

W 2

93

73

Dec 5

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

79

76

1

3

W 1

87

75

Nov 22

A

Hapoel Jerusalem

L

73

82

0

3

L 2

74

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bnei Herzliya and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bnei Herzliya.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bnei Herzliya (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bnei Herzliya will expected to score 86 points and the Hapoel Holon 88 points. The total points line estimated to be at 174.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bnei Herzliya

Hapoel Holon

FG%

0.58

0.58

ASS

20.10

18.30

DRB

22.30

21.00

AST-TO

1.26

1.43

TRB

29.10

28.00

FTM

18.40

18.30

BL

1.50

1.90

FTA

24.40

22.20

PF-Fewer

23.00

21.30

ST

7.70

8.20

TO-Fewer

16.00

12.80

Ftper

0.75

0.82

ORBper

0.30

0.33

ORB

6.80

7.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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