2021 01 30 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Vanoli Cremona vs Virtus Bologna at 30 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Vanoli Cremona vs Virtus Bologna at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vanoli Cremona and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Vanoli Cremona

4.5

2.95

Virtus Bologna

1.21

1.51

Vanoli Cremona HC

+8.5

5.00

Virtus Bologna HC

-8.5

-5.00

Point Line

167.5

166.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Vanoli Cremona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

84

88

6

10

L 3

90

88

Jan 19

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

81

83

6

9

L 2

90

75

Jan 17

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

80

101

6

8

L 1

82

103

Jan 3

A

Germani Basket Brescia

W

89

85

6

7

W 2

88

86

Dec 27

H

Enel Brindisi

W

96

94

5

7

W 1

99

88

Dec 23

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

75

95

4

7

L 3

73

83

Dec 20

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

71

85

4

6

L 2

70

87

Dec 16

A

Universo Treviso

L

90

101

4

5

L 1

82

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

88

91

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

89

85

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

94

88

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

100

77

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

75

66

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

90

70

Dec 13

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

77

60

6

4

W 1

79

61

Dec 6

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

78

83

5

4

L 1

76

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Vanoli Cremona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Vanoli Cremona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Vanoli Cremona (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Vanoli Cremona will expected to score 81 points and the Virtus Bologna 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Vanoli Cremona

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.51

0.55

ASS

16.00

22.60

DRB

25.60

25.80

AST-TO

1.55

1.63

TRB

34.20

34.70

FTM

15.40

13.50

BL

2.40

2.80

FTA

20.40

18.20

PF-Fewer

19.80

20.30

ST

5.60

8.40

TO-Fewer

10.30

13.90

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.34

0.34

ORB

8.60

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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