2021 01 30 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Obradoiro vs Bilbao at 30 January 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Fuenlabrada at 30 January 2021
Andorra vs Tenerife at 30 January 2021
Barcelona vs Murcia at 31 January 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Valencia at 31 January 2021
Baskonia vs Zaragoza at 31 January 2021
Real Madrid vs Gran Canaria at 31 January 2021
Manresa vs San Pablo Burgos at 31 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Obradoiro vs Bilbao at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Obradoiro and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Obradoiro

1.47

1.57

Bilbao

2.7

2.75

Obradoiro HC

-4.5

-4.50

Bilbao HC

+4.5

4.50

Point Line

162.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Dec 27

A

UCAM Murcia

L

76

93

6

10

L 1

75

93

Dec 20

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

102

91

6

9

W 1

94

92

Dec 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

87

5

9

L 7

81

85

Dec 13

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

75

78

5

8

L 6

83

74

Dec 5

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

62

107

5

7

L 5

64

99

Nov 21

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

63

78

5

6

L 4

65

73

Nov 15

A

Baskonia

L

74

80

5

5

L 3

78

79

Nov 1

A

Unicaja

L

76

82

5

4

L 2

75

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

96

4

16

L 3

67

97

Jan 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

70

72

4

15

L 2

73

76

Jan 9

H

Valencia Basket

L

73

106

4

14

L 1

76

100

Jan 2

H

Acunsa GBC

W

81

80

4

13

W 1

76

89

Dec 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

86

96

3

13

L 2

89

90

Dec 27

H

Unicaja

L

75

91

3

12

L 1

74

87

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

73

69

Dec 13

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

76

105

2

11

L 3

70

106

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Obradoiro (in the first graph) and by Bilbao in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Obradoiro will expected to score 84 points and the Bilbao 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Obradoiro

Bilbao

FG%

0.56

0.52

ASS

15.40

15.00

DRB

20.00

21.00

AST-TO

1.08

1.02

TRB

29.00

29.20

FTM

13.40

13.70

BL

2.20

2.30

FTA

17.30

17.70

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.60

ST

6.40

6.00

TO-Fewer

14.20

14.70

Ftper

0.78

0.77

ORBper

0.45

0.40

ORB

9.00

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Joventut Badalona vs Fuenlabrada at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Joventut Badalona and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Joventut Badalona

1.29

1.81

Fuenlabrada

3.65

2.24

Joventut Badalona HC

-8.5

-2.50

Fuenlabrada HC

+8.5

2.50

Point Line

170.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

H

Acunsa GBC

L

90

94

10

9

L 4

84

104

Jan 10

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

85

96

10

8

L 3

83

102

Jan 4

H

Valencia Basket

L

80

91

10

7

L 2

83

86

Dec 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

95

10

6

L 1

81

89

Dec 23

H

UCAM Murcia

W

104

93

10

5

W 1

103

93

Dec 20

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

88

9

5

L 1

82

83

Dec 17

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

83

9

4

W 1

85

85

Dec 12

A

Manresa

L

80

85

8

4

L 1

79

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

102

81

6

13

W 1

99

86

Jan 16

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

85

105

5

13

L 3

78

106

Jan 3

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

67

83

5

12

L 2

74

78

Dec 27

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

79

86

5

11

L 1

77

92

Dec 22

A

Unicaja

W

90

84

5

10

W 1

89

81

Dec 20

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

70

74

4

10

L 4

66

77

Dec 13

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

71

87

4

9

L 3

69

92

Dec 5

H

Valencia Basket

L

61

68

4

8

L 2

63

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Joventut Badalona (in the first graph) and by Fuenlabrada in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Joventut Badalona will expected to score 85 points and the Fuenlabrada 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Joventut Badalona

Fuenlabrada

FG%

0.55

0.52

ASS

15.30

14.30

DRB

18.70

21.40

AST-TO

1.32

1.01

TRB

27.40

31.30

FTM

14.00

15.90

BL

2.10

3.10

FTA

17.60

21.30

PF-Fewer

20.20

21.60

ST

8.50

8.50

TO-Fewer

11.60

14.10

Ftper

0.79

0.75

ORBper

0.47

0.46

ORB

8.70

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Tenerife at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Tenerife for Liga ACB, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

2.7

2.32

Tenerife

1.47

1.76

Andorra HC

+4.5

2.50

Tenerife HC

-4.5

-2.50

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Real Madrid

L

79

86

8

10

L 1

86

82

Jan 17

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

72

70

8

9

W 1

68

73

Jan 4

H

Real Madrid

L

69

75

7

9

L 3

75

71

Jan 2

A

Baskonia

L

67

84

7

8

L 2

71

83

Dec 27

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

81

93

7

7

L 1

84

86

Dec 20

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

81

73

7

6

W 1

79

75

Dec 13

A

Acunsa GBC

L

82

86

6

6

L 2

77

96

Dec 11

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

83

98

6

5

L 1

76

99

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

H

Manresa

W

85

70

16

4

W 2

84

70

Jan 16

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

108

87

15

4

W 1

105

92

Jan 10

A

Acunsa GBC

L

87

89

14

4

L 2

82

99

Jan 2

H

Real Madrid

L

85

92

14

3

L 1

92

87

Dec 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

90

64

14

2

W 2

88

66

Dec 27

H

MoraBanc Andorra

W

93

81

13

2

W 1

97

85

Dec 20

A

Baskonia

L

72

79

12

2

L 1

76

78

Dec 12

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

84

79

12

1

W 6

87

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Andorra (in the first graph) and by Tenerife in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Andorra will expected to score 79 points and the Tenerife 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Andorra

Tenerife

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

15.80

16.60

DRB

23.40

19.30

AST-TO

1.13

1.25

TRB

32.70

29.00

FTM

13.40

12.70

BL

3.10

2.20

FTA

18.00

17.00

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.60

ST

7.10

7.20

TO-Fewer

14.00

13.30

Ftper

0.74

0.75

ORBper

0.40

0.50

ORB

9.30

9.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Barcelona vs Murcia at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.06

1.94

Murcia

9

2.07

Barcelona HC

-14.5

-1.50

Murcia HC

+14.5

1.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Acunsa GBC

W

110

68

16

3

W 7

103

76

Jan 9

A

Manresa

W

99

76

15

3

W 6

97

76

Jan 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

83

67

14

3

W 5

82

66

Dec 27

A

Real Madrid

W

87

82

13

3

W 4

94

78

Dec 20

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

74

12

3

W 3

85

72

Dec 13

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

75

11

3

W 2

76

76

Dec 6

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

91

63

10

3

W 1

88

67

Dec 1

H

Valencia Basket

L

90

100

9

3

L 1

93

95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 26

H

Manresa

L

93

103

8

10

L 2

91

103

Jan 23

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

75

81

8

9

L 1

78

76

Dec 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

93

76

8

8

W 1

91

78

Dec 23

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

93

104

7

8

L 2

90

101

Dec 20

A

Valencia Basket

L

78

89

7

7

L 1

81

84

Dec 9

H

Acunsa GBC

W

90

73

7

6

W 1

84

81

Dec 6

A

Unicaja

L

81

102

6

6

L 1

80

98

Nov 21

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

84

81

6

5

W 2

82

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 84 points and the Murcia 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Murcia

FG%

0.48

0.54

ASS

16.00

15.20

DRB

19.10

20.90

AST-TO

1.20

1.03

TRB

28.50

30.20

FTM

13.60

18.10

BL

2.30

2.30

FTA

18.20

23.40

PF-Fewer

20.50

20.90

ST

8.20

5.80

TO-Fewer

13.30

14.80

Ftper

0.75

0.77

ORBper

0.49

0.44

ORB

9.40

9.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Valencia at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Valencia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

2.7

3.06

Valencia

1.47

1.49

Unicaja Malaga HC

+4.5

5.00

Valencia HC

-4.5

-5.00

Point Line

167.5

167.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

75

78

9

11

L 5

73

83

Jan 16

A

Manresa

L

83

90

9

10

L 4

82

90

Jan 10

H

Baskonia

L

79

91

9

9

L 3

84

90

Jan 3

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

95