2021 01 30 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Afyon Belediye vs Darussafaka at 30 January 2021
Bursaspor vs Petkim Spor at 30 January 2021
Galatasaray vs Fethiye Belediye at 30 January 2021
Buyukcekmece vs Turk Telekom at 31 January 2021
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Anadolu Efes at 31 January 2021
Karsiyaka vs Tofas at 31 January 2021
Fenerbahce vs Gaziantep at 31 January 2021
Ormanspor vs Besiktas at 01 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Afyon Belediye vs Darussafaka at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Afyon Belediye and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Afyon Belediye	2.02	2.86
Darussafaka	1.75	1.54
Afyon Belediye HC	+1.5	4.50
Darussafaka HC	-1.5	-4.50
Point Line	163.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 24	A	Tofas	W	85	83	10	8	W 3	84	78
Jan 16	H	Socar Spor	W	94	76	9	8	W 2	94	76
Jan 10	A	Gaziantep	W	88	84	8	8	W 1	96	92
Jan 3	A	Fethiye	L	89	100	7	8	L 2	81	106
Dec 27	H	Besiktas	L	73	96	7	7	L 1	73	94
Dec 20	A	Ormanspor	W	101	85	7	6	W 2	93	91
Dec 12	H	Galatasaray	W	97	80	6	6	W 1	91	80
Dec 6	A	Fenerbahce	L	74	94	5	6	L 1	79	87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	H	Buyukcekmece	W	85	82	9	8	W 3	80	83
Jan 17	A	Bahcesehir	W	85	76	8	8	W 2	84	76
Jan 10	H	Turk Telekom	W	84	72	7	8	W 1	84	70
Jan 2	H	Anadolu Efes	L	70	81	6	8	L 2	78	76
Dec 27	H	Tofas	L	72	85	6	7	L 1	72	80
Dec 13	H	Gaziantep	W	82	75	6	6	W 2	90	82
Dec 5	A	Fethiye	W	78	54	5	6	W 1	71	58
Dec 2	H	Besiktas	L	82	86	4	6	L 1	82	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Afyon Belediye (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Afyon Belediye will expected to score 81 points and the Darussafaka 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Afyon Belediye	Darussafaka
FG%	0.54	0.50
ASS	19.50	18.00
DRB	22.30	21.20
AST-TO	1.35	1.58
TRB	32.60	32.60
FTM	12.10	16.20
BL	2.80	2.90
FTA	16.50	20.80
PF-Fewer	18.90	23.10
ST	6.90	7.70
TO-Fewer	14.40	11.40
Ftper	0.73	0.78
ORBper	0.46	0.54
ORB	10.20	11.40

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Bursaspor vs Petkim Spor at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bursaspor and Petkim Spor for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bursaspor	1.47	2.76
Petkim Spor	2.6	1.57
Bursaspor HC	-3.5	4.50
Petkim Spor HC	+3.5	-4.50
Point Line	165.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bursaspor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 24	A	Gaziantep	L	70	77	6	12	L 2	77	84
Jan 19	A	Anadolu Efes	L	58	91	6	11	L 1	65	85
Jan 15	H	Fethiye	W	89	84	6	10	W 3	81	90
Jan 9	A	Besiktas	W	84	69	5	10	W 2	84	68
Jan 7	H	Buyukcekmece	W	89	81	4	10	W 1	84	82
Jan 3	A	Ormanspor	L	80	84	3	10	L 8	74	90
Dec 27	H	Galatasaray	L	73	92	3	9	L 7	68	92
Dec 20	A	Fenerbahce	L	54	90	3	8	L 6	58	83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Petkim Spor are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 27	A	Tofas	L	80	88	6	11	L 3	80	83
Jan 24	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	75	85	6	10	L 2	82	83
Jan 16	A	Afyon	L	76	94	6	9	L 1	73	93
Jan 10	H	Buyukcekmece	W	98	77	6	8	W 1	93	78
Jan 3	H	Bahcesehir	L	72	77	5	8	L 3	71	77
Dec 27	A	Turk Telekom	L	71	89	5	7	L 2	71	86
Dec 6	H	Anadolu Efes	L	71	75	5	6	L 1	80	70
Dec 1	H	Gaziantep	W	67	66	5	5	W 1	73	72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bursaspor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Petkim Spor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Petkim Spor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bursaspor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bursaspor (in the first graph) and by Petkim Spor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bursaspor will expected to score 80 points and the Petkim Spor 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Bursaspor	Petkim Spor
FG%	0.55	0.55
ASS	19.10	21.40
DRB	19.60	21.50
AST-TO	1.65	1.78
TRB	26.70	31.40
FTM	11.50	11.50
BL	2.50	2.30
FTA	15.60	16.60
PF-Fewer	20.90	21.60
ST	6.00	5.80
TO-Fewer	11.60	12.00
Ftper	0.74	0.70
ORBper	0.36	0.46
ORB	7.10	9.90

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Galatasaray vs Fethiye Belediye at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Galatasaray and Fethiye Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Galatasaray	1.14	2.27
Fethiye Belediye	5.4	1.79
Galatasaray HC	-9.5	2.50
Fethiye Belediye HC	+9.5	-2.50
Point Line	164.5	163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Besiktas	L	64	82	6	12	L 1	64	80
Jan 16	H	Ormanspor	W	89	87	6	11	W 1	82	93
Jan 10	A	Anadolu Efes	L	80	90	5	11	L 2	90	84
Jan 2	H	Fenerbahce	L	73	87	5	10	L 1	78	81
Dec 27	A	Bursaspor	W	92	73	5	9	W 1	87	76
Dec 19	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	74	86	4	9	L 3	81	84
Dec 12	A	Afyon	L	80	97	4	8	L 2	76	96
Dec 5	H	Buyukcekmece	L	87	91	4	7	L 1	82	92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fethiye Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 24	H	Fenerbahce	L	86	93	4	14	L 3	92	86
Jan 15	A	Bursaspor	L	84	89	4	13	L 2	79	93
Jan 9	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	78	86	4	12	L 1	86	84
Jan 3	H	Afyon	W	100	89	4	11	W 1	96	88
Dec 26	A	Buyukcekmece	L	59	66	3	11	L 6	56	67
Dec 20	H	Bahcesehir	L	76	105	3	10	L 5	75	105
Dec 16	A	Gaziantep	L	64	84	3	9	L 4	70	92
Dec 13	A	Turk Telekom	L	75	87	3	8	L 3	75	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fethiye Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fethiye Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Galatasaray (in the first graph) and by Fethiye Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Galatasaray will expected to score 84 points and the Fethiye Belediye 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Galatasaray	Fethiye Belediye
FG%	0.55	0.50
ASS	19.30	20.00
DRB	21.80	21.40
AST-TO	1.57	1.61
TRB	29.10	29.90
FTM	13.40	13.60
BL	2.60	2.20
FTA	17.60	18.40
PF-Fewer	18.60	19.80
ST	6.10	6.20
TO-Fewer	12.30	12.40
Ftper	0.76	0.74
ORBper	0.33	0.40
ORB	7.30	8.50

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Buyukcekmece vs Turk Telekom at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Buyukcekmece and Turk Telekom for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Buyukcekmece	2.55	2.94
Turk Telekom	1.5	1.52
Buyukcekmece HC	+4.5	5.00
Turk Telekom HC	-4.5	-5.00
Point Line		164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Darussafaka	L	82	85	7	11	L 4	84	84
Jan 16	H	Tofas	L	75	88	7	10	L 3	75	83
Jan 10	A	Socar Spor	L	77	98	7	9	L 2	77	98
Jan 7	A	Bursaspor	L	81	89	7	8	L 1	76	93
Jan 2	A	Gaziantep	W	66	65	7	7	W 2	72	71
Dec 26	H	Fethiye	W	66	59	6	7	W 1	60	63
Dec 20	A	Besiktas	L	77	84	5	7	L 2	77	82
Dec 16	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	77	90	5	6	L 1	84	88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	H	Bahcesehir	W	101	88	10	8	W 1	100	88
Jan 17	H	Anadolu Efes	L	84	86	9	8	L 3	94	80
Jan 10	A	Darussafaka	L	72	84	9	7	L 2	74	83
Jan 2	A	Tofas	L	64	78	9	6	L 1	64	73
Dec 27	H	Socar Spor	W	89	71	9	5	W 1	89	71
Dec 19	A	Gaziantep	L	66	70	8	5	L 1	72	77
Dec 13	H	Fethiye	W	87	75	8	4	W 1	79	80
Dec 5	A	Besiktas	L	60	94	7	4	L 1	60	92

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Buyukcekmece (in the first graph) and by Turk Telekom in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Buyukcekmece will expected to score 81 points and the Turk Telekom 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Var	Buyukcekmece	Turk Telekom
FG%	0.49	0.54
ASS	17.60	18.40
DRB	22.80	24.70
AST-TO	1.50	1.57
TRB	32.60	33.70
FTM	14.40	15.00
BL	2.10	2.00
FTA	18.50	20.20
PF-Fewer	21.30	19.80
ST	5.90	4.40
TO-Fewer	11.70	11.70
Ftper	0.78	0.74
ORBper	0.43	0.36
ORB	9.80	9.00

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Anadolu Efes at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Anadolu Efes for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bahcesehir Koleji	9	7.15
Anadolu Efes	1.05	1.16
Bahcesehir Koleji HC	+17.5	10.00
Anadolu Efes HC	-17.5	-10.00
Point Line		162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	A	Turk Telekom	L	88	101	6	12	L 3	88	98
Jan 17	H	Darussafaka	L	76	85	6	11	L 2	78	84
Jan 9	A	Tofas	L	80	87	6	10	L 1	80	82
Jan 3	A	Socar Spor	W	77	72	6	9	W 1	77	72
Dec 26