2021 01 30 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Minsk vs Unics at 30 January 2021
Zenit vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 31 January 2021
Astana vs Avtodor at 31 January 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Minsk vs Unics at 30 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Minsk and Unics for VTB United League, which will take place on 30 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Minsk

5

2.70

Unics

1.16

1.59

Minsk HC

+10.5

4.00

Unics HC

-10.5

-4.00

Point Line

156.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

72

80

2

10

L 2

68

87

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

72

77

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

77

77

Dec 23

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

77

1

8

L 8

75

70

Dec 20

A

UNICS

L

77

83

1

7

L 7

83

82

Dec 12

H

Parma

L

65

78

1

6

L 6

66

80

Dec 9

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

82

88

1

5

L 5

77

96

Dec 6

H

CSKA Moscow

L

60

87

1

4

L 4

67

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

91

66

10

4

W 5

91

67

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

90

81

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

76

71

Jan 6

H

Zielona Gora

W

65

64

7

4

W 2

63

62

Jan 3

H

Avtodor

W

94

65

6

4

W 1

90

66

Dec 26

H

CSKA Moscow

L

76

83

5

4

L 1

85

71

Dec 20

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

83

77

5

3

W 2

81

84

Dec 12

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

83

66

4

3

W 1

78

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Minsk (in the first graph) and by Unics in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Minsk will expected to score 74 points and the Unics 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Minsk

Unics

FG%

0.50

0.55

ASS

16.50

15.20

DRB

20.40

20.40

AST-TO

1.16

1.31

TRB

30.10

29.10

FTM

11.70

14.40

BL

1.70

1.90

FTA

16.50

18.70

PF-Fewer

21.10

21.90

ST

6.10

7.90

TO-Fewer

14.20

11.60

Ftper

0.71

0.77

ORBper

0.48

0.43

ORB

9.70

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit and Lokomotiv Kuban for VTB United League, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit

1.26

2.75

Lokomotiv Kuban

3.7

1.57

Zenit HC

-7.5

4.50

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

+7.5

-4.50

Point Line

161.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 18

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

51

11

1

W 4

82

55

Jan 10

H

Avtodor

W

97

71

10

1

W 3

93

72

Jan 3

A

Enisey

W

85

67

9

1

W 2

80

74

Dec 26

A

Astana

W

77

70

8

1

W 1

71

73

Dec 13

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

81

96

7

1

L 1

80

88

Dec 6

H

UNICS

W

81

64

7

0

W 6

87

64

Nov 8

A

Zielona Gora

W

94

74

6

0

W 5

91

71

Nov 1

H

Astana

W

85

52

5

0

W 4

78

54

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 16

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

94

73

8

5

W 1

94

74

Jan 9

A

Astana

L

82

86

7

5

L 2

75

90

Jan 3

H

BC Khimki

L

91

102

7

4

L 1

88

95

Dec 23

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

77

76

7

3

W 2

75

83

Dec 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

96

81

6

3

W 1

110

76

Dec 5

A

Parma

L

81

84

5

3

L 1

82

86

Nov 22

A

Enisey

W

106

79

5

2

W 1

100

88

Nov 15

A

Avtodor

L

85

89

4

2

L 1

81

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit will expected to score 84 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.59

0.53

ASS

20.30

20.80

DRB

24.30

26.80

AST-TO

1.43

1.75

TRB

32.10

35.80

FTM

19.60

17.60

BL

3.30

3.80

FTA

23.80

23.20

PF-Fewer

20.80

20.50

ST

8.00

5.60

TO-Fewer

14.20

11.90

Ftper

0.82

0.76

ORBper

0.32

0.33

ORB

7.80

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Astana vs Avtodor at 31 January 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Astana and Avtodor for VTB United League, which will take place on 31 January 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Astana

1.57

3.13

Avtodor

2.35

1.47

Astana HC

-3.5

5.50

Avtodor HC

+3.5

-5.50

Point Line

166.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Enisey

L

76

77

4

8

L 1

71

86

Jan 9

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

86

82

4

7

W 1

85

75

Dec 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

77

3

7

L 1

80

72

Dec 17

A

Parma

W

84

83

3

6

W 1

85

85

Dec 14

A

Zielona Gora

L

86

110

2

6

L 2

83

106

Dec 5

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

69

79

2

5

L 1

69

80

Nov 5

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

92

85

2

4

W 1

87

92

Nov 1

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

52

85

1

4

L 2

60

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

Zielona Gora

L

64

77

6

7

L 2

62

74

Jan 18

H

CSKA Moscow

L

82

98

6

6

L 1

92

84

Jan 14

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

61

6

5

W 1

82

66

Jan 10

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

97

5

5

L 3

81

91

Jan 3

A

UNICS

L

65

94

5

4

L 2

70

93

Dec 23

H

Zielona Gora

L

90

91

5

3

L 1

87

88

Dec 13

H

Enisey

W

85

79

5

2

W 5

80

88

Nov 15

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

89

85

4

2

W 4

88

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Astana and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Astana.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Astana (in the first graph) and by Avtodor in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Astana will expected to score 80 points and the Avtodor 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Astana

Avtodor

FG%

0.52

0.51

ASS

18.80

16.20

DRB

21.60

24.00

AST-TO

1.45

1.17

TRB

29.00

33.50

FTM

13.60

14.80

BL

2.10

2.50

FTA

18.30

19.50

PF-Fewer

21.60

20.40

ST

5.40

6.30

TO-Fewer

13.00

13.80

Ftper

0.74

0.76

ORBper

0.34

0.40

ORB

7.40

9.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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