2021 02 02 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wycombe vs Birmingham at 02 February 2021
Rotherham vs Derby at 02 February 2021
Coventry vs Nott’m Forest at 02 February 2021
Bournemouth vs Sheffield Weds at 02 February 2021
Millwall vs Norwich at 02 February 2021
Brentford vs Bristol City at 03 February 2021


Wycombe vs Birmingham at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

3.23

2.50

9.0

Draw

3.23

3.51

-2.5

Birmingham

2.33

3.18

-11.5

Over 2.5

2.18

2.31

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.69

1.76

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Brentford

A

2

7

L

O

G

02 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Cardiff

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Dec

Coventry

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G


Birmingham in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Coventry

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Jan

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Blackburn

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Dec

Derby

H

0

4

L

O

N

26 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

1

4

L

O

G

16 Dec

Cardiff

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

28%

38%

15%

19%

Birmingham

34%

37%

16%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.02 goals and Birmingham to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.24 goals and Birmingham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.04

1

4.27

2-3

2.20

2

4.20

4+

4.65

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.04

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.46

3.16

2-3 goals

2.68

3.20

3.18

4+ goals

2.17

4.48

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.53

3.18

Un 1.5

2.53

3.46

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.98

9.00

2.60

Un 2.5

3.13

2.39

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.17

4.48

3.16

Un 3.5

2.61

3.31

3.17

Goal-Goal

3.06

2.50

3.65

No Goal

2.15

5.52

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.94

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.52

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Rotherham vs Derby at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.91

2.26

9.9

Draw

3.15

3.51

-3.3

Derby

2.58

3.68

-11.6

Over 2.5

2.32

2.27

0.9

Under 2.5

1.62

1.79

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham, Over 2.5 (9.9 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Swansea

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Stoke

H

3

3

D

O

G

16 Jan

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

0

W

O

N

26 Dec

Preston

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Swansea

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

23%

38%

20%

19%

Derby

34%

41%

14%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.05 goals and Derby to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.34 goals and Derby to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Rotherham to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.31

1

4.46

2-3

2.07

2

3.88

4+

4.65

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.31

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

3.87

3.11

2-3 goals

2.29

3.06

4.24

4+ goals

2.05

4.48

3.47

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.39

3.97

Un 1.5

2.38

3.87

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.76

9.17

3.10

Un 2.5

2.90

2.37

4.27

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.48

3.47

Un 3.5

2.32

3.33

3.72

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.48

4.36

No Goal

1.91

6.28

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

7.33

3.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

6.28

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Coventry vs Nott’m Forest at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Coventry

2.70

2.00

13.0

Draw

3.00

3.89

-7.6

Nott’m Forest

2.88

4.12

-10.5

Over 2.5

2.51

2.13

7.1

Under 2.5

1.54

1.88

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Coventry, Over 2.5 (13 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Coventry in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

Sheffield Weds

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Millwall

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Preston

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Stoke

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Dec

Huddersfield

H

0

0

D

U

N


Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance as a guest.
Nott’m Forest, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Barnsley

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Millwall

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Preston

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Stoke

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Millwall

A

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Sheffield Weds

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Nott’m Forest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Coventry

24%

29%

25%

22%

Nott’m Forest

38%

38%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.07 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.45 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.41

1

4.98

2-3

2.08

2

4.22

4+

4.41

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.41

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.18

3.26

2-3 goals

1.73

4.40

5.16

4+ goals

2.05

4.05

3.78

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.28

4.62

Un 1.5

2.64

3.18

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.62

8.39

3.82

Un 2.5

2.54

2.64

4.42

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.05

3.78

Un 3.5

1.99

3.85

4.22

Goal-Goal

2.27

2.84

4.84

No Goal

1.81

5.77

3.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.43

3.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

5.77

3.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Bournemouth vs Sheffield Weds at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bournemouth

1.47

1.72

-9.9

Draw

4.29

4.24

0.3

Sheffield Weds

7.47

5.46

4.9

Over 2.5

2.01

2.04

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.83

1.96

-3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sheffield Weds (0.3 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bournemouth in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance at home.
Bournemouth, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Derby

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Stoke

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Brentford

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Luton

A

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Wycombe

H

1

0

W

U

N


Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Preston

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bournemouth and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bournemouth

18%

28%

30%

25%

Sheffield Weds

42%

38%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.86 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.61 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.88

1

5.43

2-3

1.95

2

3.98

4+

4.41

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.88

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

3.49

3.85

2-3 goals

1.52

4.85