# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Mansfield vs Bolton at 02 February 2021**** Salford vs Colchester at 02 February 2021**** Carlisle vs Forest Green at 02 February 2021**** Cheltenham vs Barrow at 02 February 2021**** Stevenage vs Exeter at 02 February 2021**** Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient at 02 February 2021**

###
Mansfield vs Bolton at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
2.16 |
2.30 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.62 |
-1.5 |

Bolton |
3.30 |
3.45 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.17 |
-4.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Jan |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
23% |
38% |
22% |
18% |

Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Mansfield ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.80 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.54 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.60 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.55 |
3.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.80 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.44 |
2.92 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.51 |
4.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.60 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.63 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.57 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
1.91 |
6.47 |
3.11 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.13 |
2.81 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.47 |
3.04 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salford vs Colchester at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
1.62 |
2.22 |
-16.7 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.73 |
1.2 |

Colchester |
5.44 |
3.56 |
9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.10 |
-3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.91 |
-0.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Colchester (1.2 %, 9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
23% |
32% |
28% |
17% |

Colchester |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **1.02** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.48 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.25 |
3.69 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.15 |
3.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.83 |
3.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.48 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.52 |
3.26 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.69 |
3.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.15 |
3.97 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.95 |
3.45 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.70 |
4.19 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
6.30 |
3.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.44 |
3.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.30 |
3.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Carlisle vs Forest Green at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Forest Green** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.81 |
2.42 |
-13.9 |

Draw |
3.67 |
3.65 |
0.1 |

Forest Green |
4.25 |
3.19 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.21 |
-5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.83 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Forest Green (0.1 %, 7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 84.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** as a guest**.

Forest Green,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Forest Green. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
27% |
32% |
26% |
14% |

Forest Green |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Forest Green** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.89 |

2-3 goals |
2.18 |
4.24 |
3.28 |

4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.07 |
3.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.80 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.47 |
2.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.68 |
3.51 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.07 |
3.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.85 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.65 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
2.17 |
5.80 |
2.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.40 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.80 |
2.76 |

####
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###
Cheltenham vs Barrow at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cheltenham** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cheltenham |
1.88 |
2.17 |
-7.1 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.75 |
-1.7 |

Barrow |
4.00 |
3.68 |
2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.09 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.92 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Barrow (2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** at home**.

Cheltenham,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cheltenham** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cheltenham |
22% |
33% |
26% |
18% |

Barrow |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cheltenham** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.59 |
3.20 |

2-3 goals |