# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Man United vs Southampton at 02 February 2021**** Newcastle vs Crystal Palace at 02 February 2021**** Sheffield United vs West Brom at 02 February 2021**** Wolves vs Arsenal at 02 February 2021**** Burnley vs Man City at 03 February 2021**** Fulham vs Leicester at 03 February 2021**** Leeds vs Everton at 03 February 2021**** Liverpool vs Brighton at 03 February 2021**** Aston Villa vs West Ham at 03 February 2021**** Tottenham vs Chelsea at 04 February 2021**

###
Man United vs Southampton at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
1.47 |
2.29 |
-24.4 |

Draw |
4.52 |
3.57 |
5.9 |

Southampton |
7.29 |
3.52 |
14.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.21 |
-16.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
1.82 |
12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (5.9 %, 14.7 %, 12.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
21% |
43% |
16% |
20% |

Southampton |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **2.23 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **1.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.33 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.90 |

2-3 goals |
2.66 |
3.08 |
3.34 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
4.37 |
3.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.40 |
3.38 |

Un 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
8.84 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.40 |
4.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
4.37 |
3.48 |

Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.39 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
3.13 |
2.50 |
3.57 |

No Goal |
1.79 |
6.57 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
7.04 |
2.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.57 |
3.37 |

####
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###
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Crystal Palace** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
2.88 |
2.16 |
11.6 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.83 |
-5.1 |

Crystal Palace |
2.65 |
3.64 |
-10.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.01 |
5.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.99 |
-10.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (11.6 %, 5.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** as a guest**.

Crystal Palace,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Crystal Palace. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
22% |
33% |
24% |
21% |

Crystal Palace |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Crystal Palace** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Newcastle ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.52 |
3.34 |

2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.14 |
3.72 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.60 |
3.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.94 |
3.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.52 |
3.34 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.10 |
3.23 |

Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.62 |
4.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.60 |
3.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.90 |
3.58 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.76 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
1.85 |
6.45 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.70 |
3.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.45 |
3.19 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sheffield United vs West Brom at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
2.00 |
2.35 |
-7.4 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.80 |
-3.4 |

West Brom |
4.12 |
3.21 |
6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.00 |
7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.00 |
-11.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Brom, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Man City |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
25% |
31% |
25% |
19% |

West Brom |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.37 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the home team **Sheffield United ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.38 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.39 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.14 |
4.40 |
3.27 |

4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.36 |
3.32 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.97 |
3.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.39 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.52 |
2.87 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.68 |
3.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.36 |
3.32 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.98 |
3.17 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.79 |
3.68 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.25 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.32 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.25 |
2.84 |

####
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###
Wolves vs Arsenal at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
3.65 |
2.87 |
7.4 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.91 |
-4.4 |

Arsenal |
2.16 |
2.53 |
-6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.91 |
8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.10 |
-12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wolves, Over 2.5 (7.4 %, 8.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
31% |
24% |
32% |
12% |

Arsenal |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **0.92 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the guest team **Arsenal ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.66 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |